January 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

Up to 5 inches of snow fell nw of Dubuque overnight.  Dubuque got about 3".

[gosaints]

Up to 5 inches of snow fell nw of Dubuque overnight.  Dubuque got about 3".

Wow nice.  About 1.5 here

[Tom]

It may be time to make a thread for the weekend clipper system. It's not like anything else is going on...

I will get one going after today's 12z runs....

[FV-Mike]

This band in Illinois is so thin but I am sitting under some intense snowfall in southern DeKalb county right now. Would say 2 inches on the ground

[dubuque473]

I had about 3.5, happened to be awake for it, was big flakes with zero wind.

[Niko]

From Accu-Weather:

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2015/650x366_01211405_hd31.jpg

 

A miss for the Midwest. Big cities on the east coast, D.C., to Boston could get heavy accumulating snows. More snow possibly by early next week for them as well as another storm is poised to get them.

[Tony]

This band in Illinois is so thin but I am sitting under some intense snowfall in southern DeKalb county right now. Would say 2 inches on the ground

What a difference a few miles will make. In Bartlett this morning we just had a dusting. Glad you could cash in on some decent snowfall!

[gosaints]

384 hours of boredom on the gfs

[FV-Mike]

From Accu-Weather:

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2015/650x366_01211405_hd31.jpg

 

A miss for the Midwest. Big cities on the east coast, D.C., to Boston could get heavy accumulating snows. More snow possibly by early next week for them as well as another storm is poised to get them.

The I-95 corridor has been basically shut out this winter so a storm is bound to happen. Still think they are going to have a lot of mixing issues to deal with.

[Tony]

384 hours of boredom on the gfs

Can't wait to get out of this mess we call "winter". Spring can't come fast enough and I hope that it's not like last year as that would really suck. If we can't have a decent winter then the heck with it. These nickel and dime snows just don't do it for me and I'm sure most of this forum will agree.

 

Some are saying that February will be cold and snowy so we shall see but I just don't see it happening.

[gosaints]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=arx&storyid=106345&source=0

 

La crosse and rochester both above normal through the first half of winter

[GDR]

[Maxim]

People posting stuff from Accuweather... are you kidding me?

[Tom]

Both GFS/EURO models for the first time this season are now showing a -AO/NAO/EPO/WPO.  These are all cold signals as we close out January and open February.  The problem with this may be that the cold may overwhelm the pattern and suppress the storm track farther south.  Nevertheless, February may end up becoming the coldest month relative to averages this Winter and the wildest month in terms of snowfall.  Trying to figure out where this storm track ends up being is a toss up right now.

[Niko]

Both GFS/EURO models for the first time this season are now showing a -AO/NAO/EPO/WPO.  These are all cold signals as we close out January and open February.  The problem with this may be that the cold may overwhelm the pattern and suppress the storm track farther south.  Nevertheless, February may end up becoming the coldest month relative to averages this Winter and the wildest month in terms of snowfall.  Trying to figure out where this storm track ends up being is a toss up right now.

I think I have a strong feeling February will favor the east coast, rather the midwest. The SE Ridge may relax a bit and it already has. Im sure you've noticed that it will be very stormy on the EC starting this weekend and continuing into next week and it remains cold there too, if not very cold. We will see what happens. February is looking stormier though than January. The big question like you said is where!

[Scott26]

Both GFS/EURO models for the first time this season are now showing a -AO/NAO/EPO/WPO.  These are all cold signals as we close out January and open February.  The problem with this may be that the cold may overwhelm the pattern and suppress the storm track farther south.  Nevertheless, February may end up becoming the coldest month relative to averages this Winter and the wildest month in terms of snowfall.  Trying to figure out where this storm track ends up being is a toss up right now.

My worry as well with all of the teleconnections taking a dip.

[Geos]

Had 0.4" of snow this morning and that was it. Little bit of freezing drizzle prior to the snowfall as well. Really hoping that Clipper can come back southwest this weekend.

[Tom]

Those are some eye popping down right frigid temps showing up as February opens...

[Tom]

Ain't that a sight for sore eyes....would like to see this snowy trend to continue in the models....

[winterfreak]

Nothing in the Plains and the beat goes on. Another ten days of temps in the forties and fifties. Nice weather to get some exercise in. Kind of enjoying it and getting excited for it. Right around the corner.

[winterfreak]

For spring.

[Grizzcoat]

wow---

[Tony]

Ain't that a sight for sore eyes....would like to see this snowy trend to continue in the models....

Everything is north of us...a few inches in 10 days...I'll pass on this one. 

[NEJeremy]

Ain't that a sight for sore eyes....would like to see this snowy trend to continue in the models....

But yet isn't that depressing that all of the snow, except for what's showing up in NM/TX from last nights storm is in the very northern part of the US and it's the end of January?! Looks like an October map to me!

[NEJeremy]

wow---ecmwf_t2max_24_mw_29.png

Yeah, give me 60s next week!! I remember 3 years ago I believe, we had like 10 days over 70 in February. I'm not hoping for a repeat of that this year, but if it happened, that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world

[Niko]

Look at all that precip down south. Too bad it will not come due north. Instead, its making a b-line towards the EC. This could'a been a nice snowstorm for my area.

 

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains.php

[Maxim]

GFS is a complete snoozefest thru hour 300.

[james1976]

HAHAAAAA......can Spring just get here? This is getting ridiculous.

[GDR]

I've been sleeping since thanksgiving.

[gosaints]

the fun times never get here

[Hawkeye]

Can someone with access to wxbell maps please post the 21z Wednesday (153 hrs) surface temp map?  That appears to be the warmest time of the entire period.

[Tom]

Can someone with access to wxbell maps please post the 21z Wednesday (153 hrs) surface temp map?  That appears to be the warmest time of the entire period.

Here you go...

[Hawkeye]

Interesting.... the surface temp seems a little low around here given the mild 850 temp and sw wind.

[Maxim]

Interesting.... the surface temp seems a little low around here given the mild 850 temp and sw wind.

It's usually too low with the surface temps in scenarios similar to that one. I'd add about 5-10 degrees to those numbers shown.

[gosaints]

15 day gfs ensmebles=zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

[GDR]

So who wins the Superbowl?

[Tom]

Hmmmmm.....

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Hmmmmm.....

 

We've been seeing these kind of maps a ton this winter, but they tend to be tempered as days go on.  Might as well assume about 50% of those totals usually, and that is sometimes too generous.

[Tom]

We've been seeing these kind of maps a ton this winter, but they tend to be tempered as days go on.  Might as well assume about 50% of those totals usually, and that is sometimes too generous.

Indeed, but its better than no snow or bare ground when the bitter cold hits...

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Indeed, but its better than no snow or bare ground when the bitter cold hits...

 

Oh I agree, we still have several inches of snow on the ground in my neighborhood, though it's typical for us to be the last to lose the snow, as I live in a high elevation (relatively speaking), tree lined neighborhood.