February 2015 PNW Discussion

[Jesse]

Yikes! It's not JUST you... There are many others. Just as there are many, many other defeatists out there keeping things working so you can have all the creature comforts you need to keep calling them defeatists.

Doing anything to make the world a better place is SUCH a waste of time. The system as we know it could collapse if we did!

 

Keep on keepin on, buddy. Luckily I think your brand of nihilism is a fading byproduct of generation X.

[Deweydog]

Doing anything to make the world a better place is SUCH a waste of time. The system as we know it could collapse if we did!

 

Keep on keepin on, buddy.

 

Unfortunately, the world is a better place in many ways BECAUSE of what we do at the expense of the environment.  

[Jesse]

Unfortunately, the world is a better place in many ways BECAUSE of what we do at the expense of the environment.

We're all doomed.

[BLI snowman]

At the old GI Joe's location on the south side, maybe.  But at the new Hampton Suites on the north side just east of 136th Avenue?  Yeah, not so much.  

 

They should move Portland's official weather records office to the Applebee's on Mill Plain. That way they'd have some accumulations to show for this year.

[Deweydog]

We're all doomed.

 

No, we're just a fear-driven society.  

[Front Ranger]

What on earth needs to happen to shake up this pattern to get us in a different regime? I am absolutely fed up with this pattern since 2013 due to the terrible drought in CA. 1993-94 was wetter here in Socal than these winters since 2013 have been.

 

At least right now CA is getting some significant rains, which is a very good thing in itself to help replenish the reservoirs, but we need to build up the snowpack as well and that is impossible with sky-high snow levels.

 

The largest reservoir in CA is Shasta Lake. The Mount Shasta station received almost 5" of rain yesterday, and they're already at 6.4" on the month. In January, they totaled .48". 

[BLI snowman]

The largest reservoir in CA is Shasta Lake. The Mount Shasta station received almost 5" of rain yesterday, and they're already at 6.4" on the month. In January, they totaled .48". 

 

Drought? What drought!?

[Jesse]

No, we're just a fear-driven society.

I agree with this.

 

I think we actually have more common ground than you think. You tend to frequently make the mistake of assuming everyone is more simple than you, though. Makes it tough to have a constructive discussion.

 

Try giving the intelligence of others the benefit of the doubt. You are really, really bad at that. At least in online land.

[Deweydog]

The largest reservoir in CA is Shasta Lake. The Mount Shasta station received almost 5" of rain yesterday, and they're already at 6.4" on the month. In January, they totaled .48". 

 

February 2015...

 

[Front Ranger]

Find a post where I've said warming has accelerated, or that the pace of warming has otherwise changed, in the last several years. Then we'll have a discussion.

 

When the globe has a record warm year, coupled with lengthy stretch of unprecedented warmth regionally, it should come as no surprise that people are talking about it a bit more. I am sorry that it bothers you so much.

 

The issue is that you've been pretty much obsessing over global warming, when in fact the weather pattern is the main reason it's been so warm in your neck of the woods recently.

 

Also, your claims of "unprecedented warmth" regionally aren't back up by regional stats.

[Front Ranger]

Still waiting for posts in which I state that warming has accelerated, or that the pace of warming has otherwise changed.

 

Bitching about the ridiculous level of warmth lately is one thing. And yes, heaven forbid, I have done that off and on the last six months (although all things considered I have kept pretty quiet). But I see nothing there pointing to a claim that climate change has accelerated. 

 

I apologize for being annoyed with the constant warmth of the last few years and making periodic commentary expressing that distaste. Happy? I can assure you our forum would be more than flooded with the complaints of other members (no pun intended, LOL!!!) if the last few years had been equally cool and damp. My commentary has been comparably mild. If anyone has made it into more than it should be, it's you, because for some reason you seem to be obsessed with me.

 

Last year or so. It's already been pointed out that 2013 had far from constant warmth, and was in fact a very normal year temperature-wise for the region.

 

Accuracy matters.

[Deweydog]

I agree with this.

 

I think we actually have more common ground than you think. You tend to frequently make the mistake of assuming everyone is more simple than you, though. Makes it tough to have a constructive discussion.

 

Try giving the intelligence of others the benefit of the doubt. You are really, really bad at that. At least in online land.

 

You couldn't be more wrong.  I tend to oversimplify things.  For instance, take the soul-crusher of a six month period we've endured.  What's my take?  It's weather.  The weather patterns have been what they are and temperatures have reacted accordingly.  Pretty simple.  Could there be a greater, more planetary aspect to it?  Maybe, maybe not.  It's above my pay grade, but I'm fine with where I've arrived.  

[Jesse]

The issue is that you've been pretty much obsessing over global warming, when in fact the weather pattern is the main reason it's been so warm in your neck of the woods recently.

 

Also, your claims of "unprecedented warmth" regionally aren't back up by regional stats.

One would be pretty hard pressed to find a period exceeding the July-February period we just experienced regionally. If you can find one, be my guest.

 

Not to mention the complete insanity in California. Rarefied territory at this point.

[Jesse]

You couldn't be more wrong. I tend to oversimplify things. For instance, take the soul-crusher of a six month period we've endured. What's my take? It's weather. The weather patterns have been what they are and temperatures have reacted accordingly. Pretty simple. Could there be a greater, more planetary aspect to it? Maybe, maybe not. It's above my pay grade, but I'm fine with where I've arrived.

I meant simple in intellectual terms, not as in versus complexity.

 

And for having such a laid back, non-committal view you certainly have a lot of criticism for the fairly reasonable conclusions arrived upon by others.

[Front Ranger]

Cherry season isn't for another few months, silly!

 

More. Comedic. Gold.

 

I wasn't the one who pointed out Nov 13. So yeah, not cherry-picking. 

[HighlandExperience]

Who cares who we elect president in the US? We are not the problem. The much bigger problem is the 4 billion people in Asia. Good luck stopping all global warming without help from natural influences like the sun or a massive volcanic eruption.

 

This is where WW III comes into play. I am afraid we are headed in that direction sometime around 2020-2025.

[Jesse]

This is where WW III comes into play. I am afraid we are headed in that direction sometime around 2020-2025.

Time to start stocking up the bomb shelter!

 

Yeah, not gonna happen. The world is too economically interdependent at this point to allow for a world war at the scale we saw in the mid-20th century.

[Front Ranger]

Drought? What drought!?

 

We've been over this...

[Deweydog]

I meant simple in intellectual terms, not as in versus complexity.

 

I think that might be your victimology kicking in.  As much as you like to tangle about issues or be somewhat provocative, you also seem to like to cower in the corner and complain of being bullied as well when the situation suits it as to your choosing. 

 

I don't portray or pretend in any way to have any more pedigree than anyone else here about weather, global warming or Hillary Clinton.  I'm not Phil.  I'm opinionated, yes, and may feel strongly about said opinions but that flows both ways, and should.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Koch brother drop millions of dollars to pretend they have influence. They probably have more influence in primary then general elections. They spend Millions on the zany Monica Wheby and look what happened to her. I think I'm more afraid of people who don't vaccinate their kids. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think that might be your victimology kicking in.  As much as you like to tangle about issues or be somewhat provocative, you also seem to like to cower in the corner and complain of being bullied as well when the situation suits it as to your choosing. 

 

I don't portray or pretend in any way to have any more pedigree than anyone else here about weather, global warming or Hillary Clinton.  I'm not Phil.  I'm opinionated, yes, and may feel strongly about said opinions but that flows both ways, and should.    

 

I'm paralyzed by my white guilt. 

[Jesse]

I think that might be your victimology kicking in. As much as you like to tangle about issues or be somewhat provocative, you also seem to like to cower in the corner and complain of being bullied as well when the situation suits it as to your choosing.

 

I don't portray or pretend in any way to have any more pedigree than anyone else here about weather, global warming or Hillary Clinton. I'm not Phil. I'm opinionated, yes, and may feel strongly about said opinions but that flows both ways, and should.

You're doing it again.

 

Maybe you're not even aware of it?

[Deweydog]

You're doing it again.

 

Maybe you're not even aware of it?

 

So are you!  

 

I would think you'd have to be aware of it.  

[Deweydog]

I'm paralyzed by my white guilt. 

 

Michael Brown died for your sins.  

[BLI snowman]

We've been over this...

 

We have. Yet you persist. Let me know when their drought gets conquered.  

 

80 degree death ridge incoming for Shasta Lake next week. Evaporation time!

[Deweydog]

The Koch brother drop millions of dollars to pretend they have influence. They probably have more influence in primary then general elections. They spend Millions on the zany Monica Wheby and look what happened to her. I think I'm more afraid of people who don't vaccinate their kids. 

 

The pandering has been in high gear over that issue!  

[richard mann]

We have.

A wetter spring would be nice. Even a wetter period leading up to it.

[Front Ranger]

One would be pretty hard pressed to find a period exceeding the July-February period we just experienced regionally. If you can find one, be my guest.

 

Not to mention the complete insanity in California. Rarefied territory at this point.

 

February is just a week in. 

 

These maps only go through Dec 2014, but I can compare the 7 month Jun-Dec 2014 period to other similar 7 month periods. Some of these torches continued well longer than 7 months.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

We have. Yet you persist. Let me know when their drought gets conquered.  

 

80 degree death ridge incoming for Shasta Lake next week. Evaporation time!

 

Rain helps. Never said it would erase the drought. Let's see how the drought monitor map looks next week.

 

I wasn't "persisting" in anything other than posting some pretty impressive rain totals yesterday at Mount Shasta, which also happens to be the location of the largest reservoir in the state. The actual mountain itself is even getting quite a bit of snow right now!

[Black Hole]

February is just a week in. 

 

These maps only go through Dec 2014, but I can compare the 7 month Jun-Dec 2014 period to other similar 7 month periods. Some of these continued easily longer than 7 months.

 

dec-jun1934.png

dec-jun1940.png

jan-jul1926.png

jan-jul1992.png

Jun-Dec1958.png

jun-Dec2014.png

 

I think it would be better if the scales were all the same, but otherwise nice research.

[Front Ranger]

I think it would be better if the scales were all the same, but otherwise nice research.

 

Yeah, it's annoying the scale varies a bit, but if you compare you can still see that the recent torch period compares pretty closely to most of those other ones, and for the PNW, is actually not quite as warm as a couple of them.

[Phil]

Yeah, it's annoying the scale varies a bit, but if you compare you can still see that the recent torch period compares pretty closely to most of those other ones, and for the PNW, is actually not quite as warm as a couple of them.

You can change the scale yourself.

[BLI snowman]

A wetter spring would be nice. Even a wetter period leading up to it.

 

Definitely vital for you. A month that isn't one of the warmest on record down there would help immensely.

[BLI snowman]

Rain helps. Never said it would erase the drought. Let's see how the drought monitor map looks next week.

 

I wasn't "persisting" in anything other than posting some pretty impressive rain totals yesterday at Mount Shasta, which also happens to be the location of the largest reservoir in the state. The actual mountain itself is even getting quite a bit of snow right now!

 

Snow at 14,000 feet in February!? 

 

Surely you jest!

[Front Ranger]

You can change the scale yourself.

 

How?

[Front Ranger]

Snow at 14,000 feet in February!? 

 

Surely you jest!

 

Snow level is actually around 7500', they're getting snow at the base of the ski area. Yeah, not cold, but quite a bit of accumulation still occurring in the higher mountains.

 

http://skipark.com/the-mountain/cams/

[stuffradio]

A wetter spring would be nice. Even a wetter period leading up to it.

I definitely hope for you to get a wet spring. I hope you can understand if I wish the opposite IMBY though. The biggest difference between this Winter and last is how wet it is. It's much wetter this year with Pineapple express after Pineapple express coming in, and it's even wet without them coming.

[richard mann]

When the globe has a record warm year, coupled with lengthy stretch of unprecedented warmth regionally, it should come as no surprise that people are talking about it a bit more.

[No] smoking gun AGW-wise in the recent past.

... in fact the weather pattern is the main reason it's been so warm in your neck of the woods recently.

 

Also, your claims of "unprecedented warmth" regionally aren't back up by regional stats.

I agree with Jared, that the current warmth more north recently has been more pattern driven than anything else. If with this idea it might perhaps be asked to what degree a / the "Warming"—whether or not more Anthropomorphic—more planetary might be contributing to patterning looked at more broadly.

 

People don't focus on the why of patterning as much as they might here:=leastwise more than perhaps pointing to ENSO or whatever by degrees more obscured more Multi-decadal oscillation. And even elsewhere, I haven't found much, more definitive, addressing more specifically why patterns change the way they do from year to year.

 

But I'm convinced myself at least, that following this more from year to year pattern evolution is the best way to follow what's actually occurring more in line with the idea of Global Warming.

[bainbridgekid]

Snow level is actually around 7500', they're getting snow at the base of the ski area. Yeah, not cold, but quite a bit of accumulation still occurring in the higher mountains.

 

http://skipark.com/the-mountain/cams/

The ski area is closed because of lack of snow and it is 37 degrees and raining at the base.

 

http://skipark.com/the-mountain/conditions/

[richard mann]

I definitely hope for you to get a wet spring.

Hoping for some kind of general balancing out of course.