February 2015 PNW Discussion

[Jesse]

In other news. How about that long range ridging? We could be seeing our first February mid-60s in the western lowlands in years by later next week.

[Dan the Weatherman]

That ridge is progged to cover some serious longitude in the LR

 

#polewardmasstransfer

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/tQRZat/1024.jpg

Looks like the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (RRR) only that it extends even further north.

[Deweydog]

There is a razor-thin line between overreacting and underreacting according to you, and its name is Matt Deweydog.

 

It's ok. I think everybody has their own degree of "my opinion is the only valid opinion" bias. Although perhaps it is more common in lawyers

Mmmmkay.

[Skagit Weather]

Just wondering. With the warmest December on record at SEA and 5th warmest January, does anybody know where February would have to place to make this the warmest winter (Dec-Feb) on record?

[MossMan]

Last summer was one of the hottest on record regionally. Pretty absurd to root for a repeat every year.

It was so nice to be able to just lounge on the deck at sunset in shorts and a T-shirt during many of those summer evenings, I loved it!! Plus I have a heat pump so the house would always be at a cool 71 degrees no matter how warm it was outside so I never experienced any uncomfortable night sleeps. Was absolutely perfect!!

[TT-SEA]

There is saying in MN... if you don't like the weather then wait 5 minutes.

 

Does not seem to apply here.   

[Deweydog]

There is saying in MN... if you don't like the weather then wait 5 minutes.

 

Does not seem to apply here.

Everyone everywhere says that. It's dumb.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

There are some pretty sharp temperature gradients showing up to the north of us in about 2~3 days; probably going to see some impressive snowfall amounts up there. On the plus side this should bring much needed rain to Northern California. It's not going to be cold, but at least it should be a pretty dynamic week for weather.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015020400/gfs_T850_namer_13.png

[Dan the Weatherman]

There is saying in MN... if you don't like the weather then wait 5 minutes.

 

Does not seem to apply here.   

If you are in CA, then it is "if you don't like the weather, then wait 5 days, or 5 weeks." It has been more like "wait 5 weeks" as of late. The "wait 5 minutes" certainly doesn't apply down here.

[richard mann]

It's like we're right back in 2013-14. I'm starting to fear another non-spring here.

 

... in Western MD.  / "All things considered". 

 

[Dan the Weatherman]

 

... in Western MD.  / "All things considered". 

 

In CA and even the PNW, I think we are having a non-winter here.

[HighlandExperience]

There is saying in MN... if you don't like the weather then wait 5 minutes.

 

Does not seem to apply here.   

 

The saying here is.. if you don't like the weather, then wait another year. 

[TT-SEA]

The saying here is.. if you don't like the weather, then wait another year.

Seems like maybe 3 years.

[Tyler Mode]

One year ago, my high was 37 with a low of 24.  Drier air started moving in during the evening with a dewpoint of 19 by 8 PM.  The day was dry and cloudy.

[TT-SEA]

Warm fronts are strange... you can clearly see the sun through the clouds in Seattle.

 

http://s17.postimg.org/etpvy3nbz/webcam2_latest.jpg

 

 

And yet here is the radar...

 

http://s17.postimg.org/i72pyk6an/ATX_0.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One year ago, my high was 37 with a low of 24. Drier air started moving in during the evening with a dewpoint of 19 by 8 PM. The day was dry and cloudy.

I received about 2.5 of snow the evening before. So I actually went into that event with snow on the ground.

[Jesse]

My favorite weather event of my time living in the Gorge thus far was starting a year ago today.

 

Shame it was sandwiched between months of relative inactivity that have dominated most of my stay.

[HighlandExperience]

Goodbye Ski Season:

 

THE 120-HOUR TOTAL...5 DAYS OF RAIN... 
  STILL SHOWS 10-13 INCH BULLSEYES OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 
  1-4 INCHES IN THE LOWLANDS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE ABOVE 5000 FEET 
  THE ENTIRE TIME WITH OCCASIONAL EXCURSIONS TO 7000 FEET OR HIGHER.

[richard mann]

yep. Warm storm for sure. Pretty high snow levels even here more south "AlpineExperience".

 

Just for comparison sake, and since it probably reads a little better where considering this storm's more general potential to perhaps add some to the at this point or very near to it now shrinking water supply here more south in CA, ...

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1157 AM PST WED FEB 4 2015

CAZ013>019-063-064-066>069-051200-
SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY-
BURNEY BASIN / EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA-NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-MOTHERLODE-
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-
WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
1157 AM PST WED FEB 4 2015

A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE PACIFIC IS MOVING TOWARDS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING TWO WAVES OF WET
WEATHER TO THE REGION: THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START AND REMAIN HIGH...GENERALLY ABOVE 7000 FEET
BUT SOME STRONGER CONVECTION ON FRIDAY COULD BRING SNOW LEVELS
TEMPORARILY DOWN TO PASS LEVELS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE
VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
AN INCH IN THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TO UP TO 4 INCHES IN
THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THE MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY ARE LIKELY TO SEE OVER 5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. A BRIEF BREAK TO SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION...BREEZY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO
50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS TO 60 MPH
IN THE MOUNTAINS.

IMPACTS:

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
* MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING ON PORTIONS OF UPPER SACRAMENTO RIVER
* POTENTIAL FOR DEBRIS FLOWS NEAR WILDFIRE BURN SCARS
* LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREES DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS
* WINTER ROAD CONDITIONS FRIDAY ABOVE 6000 FT

TIMING AND STRENGTH:

* PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEGINNING OVER
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD OF I-80 BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY EXPECTED TO
MEASURE 1-5 INCHES WITH 4-10 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAINS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
* STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH IN
THE VALLEY AND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS.
* SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY ABOVE 7000 FT BUT LOCALLY LOWER TO 6000
FEET ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
 

Of course no one wants to hear, or "cares" likely, why this storm has resulted. Or either why, the type of patterning and weaker type of systems development has predominated this winter season .. to this point, ....

 

But as with most of the systemic activity having been generated where looking at things more fully north-south this first half of winter, less substantial or if of any substance at all, and if only more as I see things (qualifying here.), ... this warmer storm (warm front type more / my impression if more, pretty much not wanted at this point, more north, and if more appreciable here where I am more south and more south of me.), less well organized ultimately, .. has been the result of a poorer timing more general, of the general inter-play, where looking at the three main variables of main colder air's potential that I do. More basically, its both more latitudinal movement with distribution, together with the pace of its main more longitudinal movement more predominately east, these ideas looked at along together with also, its more apparent force of movement looked at more over-all. And with each of these different ideas, variables of colder air's either whether movement or character more, being more cyclical and occurring more inner-seasonal or irrespective of season. 

 

And where looking at this system more current more specifically, if with colder air's current movement and spread more southward daily, not much main and more primary cold having been sitting more immediately upstream. This idea more main, looked at together with also those that although main colder air had been moving more assertively east from the end of January (the 31st.) through to the yesterday the 3rd, its more at this point having begun to slow its pace east, set with also, where looking at colder air's main force of movement (one of the more important ideas here, not recognized more commonly per my appreciation, if perhaps picked up by the models), that force more basic, being at near to its weakest right now. 

[Sometimesdylan]

Anyone have a sub to weatherbell? Do they have anything similar to meteostars sampled points feature?

[Dan the Weatherman]

The four corner high....in February.

 

http://s14.postimg.org/3lcrbj3nl/4_corner0.png

This time around, I believe that high is a surface high. The summertime Four Corners High is usually in the mid to upper levels.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This place is really alive tonight....

[TT-SEA]

This place is really alive tonight....

 

 

5 more days of mountain snowpack destroying warm rain is not really interesting... just sad.

[Front Ranger]

Next 4-5 days look pretty stormy/active for the PNW. More than any similar period the past couple months, really. Not cold/snow, but at least a change from the complete boredom of the pattern the past few weeks.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Next 4-5 days look pretty stormy/active for the PNW. More than any similar period the past couple months, really. Not cold/snow, but at least a change from the complete boredom of the pattern the past few weeks.

Even a good deal of CA is going to get some much-needed rain with the shift in the pattern. I just wish the southern extent would sag southward so that areas from Los Angeles down to San Diego can get in on the action.

[Front Ranger]

Everyone everywhere says that. It's dumb.

 

Agreed. 

 

It's more like wait 10 minutes here.

[Front Ranger]

No it's not.

 

Then you've got the fact that the predominance of one extreme makes the other unlikely. At least looking at the bigger picture.

 

Not NEARLY as many roaster summers during the mid-20th century. No coincidence that the winters were consistently better.

 

The closest summer and year overall to 2014 was easily 1958. In terms of overall temps for the region. Right smack in the middle of the 20th century.

[Front Ranger]

Even a good deal of CA is going to get some much-needed rain with the shift in the pattern. I just wish the southern extent would sag southward so that areas from Los Angeles down to San Diego can get in on the action.

 

The 0z Canadian shows insane amounts for the northern half of CA. This could end up being the wettest week of the season for the West Coast as a whole.

 

 

[Front Ranger]

There have only been two January's in South Lake Tahoe where the average high Temp has exceeded 50F for the month and it was the last two years. We finished this January at 51.87F which is +10.04F above average! Before the last two years the highest I could find was Jan 1986 at 47.3F

This drought/heat wave for the last two years has to be in the 1 in 500 to 1 in 1000 year range at this point. I am still sitting at 3" of snow for the season with no prospects of snow through Feb. 

 

Also December 2012 was the last time that we had a month below average. A 25month run and with Feb almost certainly coming in at least +7F above average it will be 26 straight months of above average temps. I wonder how long till we have to consider this a new normal 36months? 

 

No doubt the past couple Januaries have been extreme, but...

 

The other Tahoe station has a much longer period of record, and the January with the warmest average high temp is 1961.

 

In addition, that station was below normal as recently as August 2014. And that's below the long term average, not just 30 year. It was also below the long term average several months in 2013.

 

Let's look at another reliable, long term station for the region: the Reno airport. Neither of the past 2 Januaries were even close to the record warm January max average from 1948.

 

It's helpful to look at more than one station.

[BLI snowman]

Next 4-5 days look pretty stormy/active for the PNW. More than any similar period the past couple months, really. Not cold/snow, but at least a change from the complete boredom of the pattern the past few weeks.

 

The upcoming pattern  is a continuation of what we've seen all winter. Brief spike in activity, heavy rain coupled with SW flow and warm temps. Followed by more warm ridging and a faucet shutoff. 

 

You oversold February being "different". It happens.

[HighlandExperience]

5 more days of mountain snowpack destroying warm rain is not really interesting... just sad.

 

Yup typical run of the mill early May weather. This winter is really making last year look like a shining star. 

 

It is quite amazing how hard it is to get snow below 5K these days. 

[Front Ranger]

The upcoming pattern  is a continuation of what we've seen all winter. Brief spike in activity, heavy rain coupled with SW flow and warm temps. Followed by more warm ridging and a faucet shutoff. 

 

You oversold February being "different". It happens.

 

The upcoming pattern is a more extreme version of previous, brief warm/wet patterns this winter, yes. However, the dominant pattern in January was dry, so this is at least different than that. Only a handful of January days at SEA with more than .10" of precip - will probably top that number by the 10th this month. In fact, the first 10 days of February could easily end up wetter than the past 6 weeks many places in the PNW and on the West Coast.

 

As far as Feb as a whole, way too early to say how it will end up. It does look like another dry period following this very wet one.

 

But at least there will be some actual storms/strong low pressure systems impacting the West Coast over the next 4-5 days. Much needed drought relief down south.

[BLI snowman]

The upcoming pattern is a more extreme version of previous, brief warm/wet patterns this winter, yes. However, the dominant pattern in January was dry, so this is at least different than that. Only a handful of January days at SEA with more than .10" of precip - will probably top that number by the 10th this month. In fact, the first 10 days of February could easily end up wetter than the past 6 weeks many places in the PNW and on the West Coast.

 

As far as Feb as a whole, way too early to say how it will end up. It does look like another dry period following this very wet one.

 

But at least there will be some actual storms/strong low pressure systems impacting the West Coast over the next 4-5 days. Much needed drought relief down south.

 

January was overwhelmingly dry, but there were two brief interludes with warm heavy rain events. December had that as well. This is a pretty standard ugly pattern for us, and impressively wet down south.

 

Unfortunately, this won't provide much of any drought relief for CA. It will temporarily help lowland farmers, but they need an extreme amount of snow in the Sierras at this point and they won't be getting any in the upcoming pineapple juice pattern. 

[Deweydog]

The upcoming pattern is a more extreme version of previous, brief warm/wet patterns this winter, yes. However, the dominant pattern in January was dry, so this is at least different than that. Only a handful of January days at SEA with more than .10" of precip - will probably top that number by the 10th this month. In fact, the first 10 days of February could easily end up wetter than the past 6 weeks many places in the PNW and on the West Coast.

 

As far as Feb as a whole, way too early to say how it will end up. It does look like another dry period following this very wet one.

 

But at least there will be some actual storms/strong low pressure systems impacting the West Coast over the next 4-5 days. Much needed drought relief down south.

Gonna be a quietish month.

[Front Ranger]

January was overwhelmingly dry, but there were two brief interludes with warm heavy rain events. December had that as well. This is a pretty standard ugly pattern for us, and impressively wet down south.

 

Unfortunately, this won't provide much of any drought relief for CA. It will temporarily help lowland farmers, but they need an extreme amount of snow in the Sierras at this point and they won't be getting any in the upcoming pineapple juice pattern. 

 

Neither as extreme or extended as what's coming up. It's looking very likely most locations from Fresno north will have received more precip in February by the 10th as they received in all of January. Way more for northern CA/southern OR.

 

And actually, the heavy rain in northern/central CA will provide drought relief, as there are quite a few big reservoirs for water storage throughout the region. Mountain snow would be preferable, but this will definitely provide drought relief, as any heavy precip down there does.

[Front Ranger]

Huh?

 

According to WRCC records, the average monthly temperature for Reno airport in January 1948 was 35.95 degrees.

 

The averages for January 2014 and 2015, at 39.35 and 40.34, were the 4th warmest and 2nd warmest (respectively) on record, if I read the data correctly.  #1 is January 2003, at 43.05.

 

The annual average temperature of 57.29 for 2014 is by far the warmest on record.  It caps a string of 29 consecutive years warmer than the overall mean of 51.04.

 

Maybe find a different station for your example?

 

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?nv6779

 

Read again. I said average max. Because that's what the Tahoe poster had been citing for the past two Januaries.

 

Jan 1948 had an average max temp of 55.48, well above the 53.84 and 53.55 of the past two Januaries.

[BLI snowman]

Neither as extreme or extended as what's coming up. It's looking very likely most locations from Fresno north will have received more precip in February by the 10th as they received in all of January. Way more for northern CA/southern OR.

 

And actually, the heavy rain in northern/central CA will provide drought relief, as there are quite a few big reservoirs for water storage throughout the region. Mountain snow would be preferable, but this will definitely provide drought relief, as any heavy precip down there does.

 

Weren't you the one who was hyping up the early January rainfall as some kind of major event for us? For all intents and purposes, this will have the same impact for the PNW. This week is not dramatically different at all for us. 

 

And no, a few inches of warm rain won't provide any serious drought relief down there. They need way more storms first of all, and they need something in the way of snowfall to have lasting consequences for the reservoirs. January was another record dry month for Northern CA and their drought is as bad as ever.

 

Even the PNW will be looking at water shortages this summer if the pitiful snow season continues. In spite of normal rainfall for most stations, it's been way too warm. A warm, dry spring would be pretty ugly for our water supply.

[richard mann]

Weren't you the one who was hyping up the early January rainfall as some kind of major event for us? For all intents and purposes, this will have the same impact for the PNW. This week is not dramatically different at all for us. 

 

And no, a few inches of warm rain won't provide any serious drought relief down there. They need way more storms first of all, and they need something in the way of snowfall to have lasting consequences for the reservoirs. January was another record dry month for Northern CA and their drought is as bad as ever.

 

Even the PNW will be looking at water shortages this summer if the pitiful snow season continues. In spite of normal rainfall for most stations, it's been way too warm. A warm, dry spring would be pretty ugly for our water supply.

No sense putting the best spin on the potential. Right. ?

 (hey, Look at it this way, I didn't say "shut up".)

 

.. cross-reference. - http://theweatherfor...limate/?p=68862

[Front Ranger]

Weren't you the one who was hyping up the early January rainfall as some kind of major event for us? For all intents and purposes, this will have the same impact for the PNW. This week is not dramatically different at all for us. 

 

And no, a few inches of warm rain won't provide any serious drought relief down there. They need way more storms first of all, and they need something in the way of snowfall to have lasting consequences for the reservoirs. January was another record dry month for Northern CA and their drought is as bad as ever.

 

Even the PNW will be looking at water shortages this summer if the pitiful snow season continues. In spite of normal rainfall for most stations, it's been way too warm. A warm, dry spring would be pretty ugly for our water supply.

 

The early January event was major for WA coastal regions, with the flooding in Aberdeen, and provided some impressive 24-48 hour totals in some spots. But this event is much more widespread and prolonged. Several separate storms.

 

Do a little research on water collection in northern/central CA. The reservoirs play a significant role in their water supply, and a storm of this magnitude would be very beneficial. Could be looking at 5-10" for many areas over the next week, that's massive for them.

[Front Ranger]

No sense putting the best spin on the potential. Right. ?

 (hey, Look at it this way, I didn't say "shut up".)

 

.. cross-reference. - http://theweatherfor...limate/?p=68862

 

Richard, you live there...care to explain to BLIsnowman how these upcoming storms actually will provide drought relief?