February 2015 PNW Discussion

[Alex_Snakes]

No... we definitely had summer last year.  

 

Our last two summers were amazing. I hope we have a repeat. 

[MossMan]

Our last two summers were amazing. I hope we have a repeat. 

I agree 100%!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really hope we have more of a marine influence this summer.

[Jesse]

I will definitely be rooting against any back door arctic blast. That just means dry cold.

 

Towards the end of February we would be looking at temps around 40 degrees during the day time. No thank you.

I think you are oversimplifying things a little. A pattern like that could bring mountain snow too. Or we could just torch forever I suppose.

[Jesse]

Really hope we have more of a marine influence this summer.

I agree 100%!!

[Deweydog]

I'm 25 days away from giving up on this winter; 46 days from giving up on it astronomically.

[AlTahoe]

There have only been two January's in South Lake Tahoe where the average high Temp has exceeded 50F for the month and it was the last two years. We finished this January at 51.87F which is +10.04F above average! Before the last two years the highest I could find was Jan 1986 at 47.3F

This drought/heat wave for the last two years has to be in the 1 in 500 to 1 in 1000 year range at this point. I am still sitting at 3" of snow for the season with no prospects of snow through Feb. 

 

Also December 2012 was the last time that we had a month below average. A 25month run and with Feb almost certainly coming in at least +7F above average it will be 26 straight months of above average temps. I wonder how long till we have to consider this a new normal 36months? 

[Jesse]

There have only been two January's in South Lake Tahoe where the average high Temp has exceeded 50F for the month and it was the last two years. We finished this January at 51.87F which is +10.04F above average! Before the last two years the highest I could find was Jan 1986 at 47.3F

This drought/heat wave for the last two years has to be in the 1 in 500 to 1 in 1000 year range at this point. I am still sitting at 3" of snow for the season with no prospects of snow through Feb.

 

Also December 2012 was the last time that we had a month below average. A 25month run and with Feb almost certainly coming in at least +7F above average it will be 26 straight months of above average temps. I wonder how long till we have to consider this a new normal 36months?

Much ado about nothing.

[richard mann]

Before I get crucified for this, as much as I love dark and damp weather (and I really do), a small part of me is looking forward to getting this winter and football season behind us and move onto spring and summer.

 

.. Perhaps after a bit more snow pack in the mountains leastwise, son. (?)

 

— Maybe 12-14 inches of rain here more south. ? .. Then you can go out and "fly your kite". 

[richard mann]

Much ado about nothing.

 

Cosmic.

[BLI snowman]

There have only been two January's in South Lake Tahoe where the average high Temp has exceeded 50F for the month and it was the last two years. We finished this January at 51.87F which is +10.04F above average! Before the last two years the highest I could find was Jan 1986 at 47.3F

This drought/heat wave for the last two years has to be in the 1 in 500 to 1 in 1000 year range at this point. I am still sitting at 3" of snow for the season with no prospects of snow through Feb. 

 

Also December 2012 was the last time that we had a month below average. A 25month run and with Feb almost certainly coming in at least +7F above average it will be 26 straight months of above average temps. I wonder how long till we have to consider this a new normal 36months? 

 

800" snow winter next year to make up for it.

[MossMan]

I agree 100%!!

I disagree 100%!!

[HighlandExperience]

800" snow winter next year to make up for it

 

I could honestly see us getting torched into 2016.

[Jesse]

I disagree 100%!!

Last summer was one of the hottest on record regionally. Pretty absurd to root for a repeat every year.

[TT-SEA]

Our last two summers were amazing. I hope we have a repeat. 

 

 

I would love for that to become the norm in our new climate.  

 

Cold and snowy winters and long, warm, sunny summers would be perfect.  

[Deweydog]

Last summer was one of the hottest on record regionally. Pretty absurd to root for a repeat every year.

Call me absurd! I'll take record heat in the summer and record cold in the winter until the day I die!

[Jesse]

Call me absurd! I'll take record heat in the summer and record cold in the winter until the day I die!

 

Problem is we're missing one half of that equation.

[Deweydog]

Problem is we're missing one half of that equation.

Life's a *****...

[FroYoBro]

Life's a *****...

...but not with pie!

[TT-SEA]

Problem is we're missing one half of that equation.

 

 

Does not mean I want summer to suck as bad as our winters have sucked.   

 

Might as well enjoy half of that equation.

[Jesse]

Life's a *****....

 

No it's not.

 

Then you've got the fact that the predominance of one extreme makes the other unlikely. At least looking at the bigger picture.

 

Not NEARLY as many roaster summers during the mid-20th century. No coincidence that the winters were consistently better.

[Deweydog]

No it's not.

 

Then you've got the fact that the predominance of one extreme makes the other unlikely. At least looking at the bigger picture.

 

Not NEARLY as many roaster summers during the mid-20th century. No coincidence that the winters were consistently better.

I heard somewheres the 50's and '60's were pretty chilly willy. Flatiron could probably tell you more about and how 2006 to present is a spittin' image.

[Jesse]

I don't remember many record hot days, just a lot of sunny days.

 

There weren't a lot of record hot days. It was just consistently warm and humid with mild nights.

 

I actually hope we have a summer with more record hot individual days next year. Would likely mean more flow reversals and less stagnant, muggy airmasses. 

[Jesse]

I heard somewheres the 50's and '60's were pretty chilly willy. Flatiron could probably tell you more about and how 2006 to present is a spittin' image.

 

 

No doubt he would try.

 

2013 and 2014 make that a hard sell, though.

[Deweydog]

...but not with pie!

3.14159265359% of the population agrees!

[Deweydog]

 

No doubt he would try.

 

2013 and 2014 make that a hard sell, though.

So would ~1958.

 

You're still wonky, kiddo. Roll with it.

[TT-SEA]

So would ~1958.

 

You're still wonky, kiddo. Roll with it.

 

 

Thinking 1958 might be a good analog for this upcoming summer.  

[Jesse]

So would ~1958.

 

You're still wonky, kiddo. Roll with it.

 

Devils need advocating!

[Deweydog]

Devils need advocating!

Just trying to help you see that big, warm forest through all those trees. We'll get through this, champ!

[Jesse]

Just trying to help you see that big, warm forest through all those trees. We'll get through this, champ!

 

So you think this 2006-present period has been comparable to the 50s and 60s? News to me.

 

I think you just like disagreeing with people. That keeps coming up.

[Deweydog]

So you think this 2006-present period has been comparable to the 50s and 60s? News to me.

 

I think you just like disagreeing with people. That keeps coming up.

No, I never said that. He thinks so, though. That's why I said that.

[BLI snowman]

No, I never said that. He thinks so, though. That's why I said that.

 

2008 and 2011 at OLM! Chilly springs! November cold spells!

[Jesse]

No, I never said that. He thinks so, though. That's why I said that.

 

What was the purpose of the 1958 comment, then?

 

It seemed to be an attempt at drawing some sort of parallel so that I could at last bask in the light of your wisdom.

[Phil]

That ridge is progged to cover some serious longitude in the LR

 

#polewardmasstransfer

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/tQRZat/1024.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I really doubt this summer is as hot as the past two. Someone mentioned spring of 2005 early. Wow that was a glorious first half of march. Then there was six weeks of rain. I could totally see a repeat.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That ridge is progged to cover some serious longitude in the LR

 

#polewardmasstransfer

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/tQRZat/1024.jpg

good lord lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I took this picture over the weekend. It's on the southern end of the Blue Mountains. On a normal January 31st, there would be plenty of snow on the ground. On the positive side I saw lots of fawns, so hopefully that's indicative of a high survival rate.

 

http://s14.postimg.org/keflpltwx/IMG_20150131_170037.jpg

I guess there is a silver lining in everything. More deer and elk surviving to feed a growing wolf population.

 

At my place my pasture grass is already growing. Less feed to buy for the sheep. Plenty of firewood to get through the winter.

[Phil]

It's like we're right back in 2013-14. I'm starting to fear another non-spring here.

[Deweydog]

What was the purpose of the 1958 comment, then?

 

It seemed to be an attempt at drawing some sort of parallel so that I could at last bask in the light of your wisdom.

Come on, you're smarter than this. Do you think there might have been a 20-something weenie back then overreacting to the state of affairs in 1958? Obviously our climate is warmer now overall but there are similarities between the periods. The overall point is just that you are still overreacting.

[Jesse]

Come on, you're smarter than this. Do you think there might have been a 20-something weenie back then overreacting to the state of affairs in 1958? Obviously our climate is warmer now overall but there are similarities between the periods. The overall point is just that you are still overreacting.

 

There is a razor-thin line between overreacting and underreacting according to you, and its name is Matt Deweydog.

 

It's ok. I think everybody has their own degree of "my opinion is the only valid opinion" bias. Although perhaps it is more common in lawyers