SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Mild lows the next few mornings should clench warmest Feb on record for PDX and other locations. Now we try to set the March record! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 06z ensembles really take a dump on our hopes and dreamsThis isn't the one, big guy. I don't generally side with Phil, but I actually agree with him that the upcoming "pattern change" will probably end up just a slight blip in the overall regime we've been stuck in for months. We may have to wait until after next winter's niño to see any meaningful cold anomalies. Crazy to think we may not see a lot of cascade snowfall this spring, because they are scary bad right now. At least it's cold in Boston! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Now we try to set the March record!Change is coming!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 This pattern change is being overplayed because we're missing the elephant in the room. I suspect be back in a +PNA by the middle of March. Same story all winter..we get a burp of hi-freq WPAC forcing superimposed on underlying QBO/ENSO driven mass transport. What results is repetitive NPAC wave-breaking, and a tank in the EPO along with an attempted bombardment of the PV. The initial PNA response cannot sustain on its own given the pull of the forementioned underlying inertial forcings unless our partner in crime (the dominant, fully coupled PV) is compromised. Why? The PV is dominating high latitude mass transport, export-returns, and wave guidance. It's fully coupled to the NAM and the Hudson Bay vortex. The PV works like a giant tornado with multiple vortices at the base. Destroy the vortex aloft, you stop both the development and subsequent poleward progression of the vortices below. Hence you tank the NAM, reverse the mass transport gradients, and pass the hot-potato into the hands of the higher frequency tropical forcings which will then begin battle with the lower frequency, ENSO dominated forcings/resonances. That's how you change a low frequency pattern. Look at January 2013. Before the SSW/mass transport breakdown that occurred around the turn of that New Year, we'd been in a persistent regimen since February of 2011, essentily the opposite of the one we're in now. We all know how that changed, with a total transition in the span of a few weeks. The dominant circulations had done a 180 by January 20th. We need to break down the PV before we're going to get a true, large scale pattern change. Only then will the ENSO trend back negative, along with the PNA and PDO.You're forgetting an even bigger elephant in the room. Baseball/softball season starts in two weeks. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Sweet. Another dangling carrot. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_300_1000_500_thick.gif Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 We've lost the Canadian. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm a big fan of the totally meaningless long range GFS. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Heavy Snow falling in Shrevport, La right now....Just thought I'd mention that. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 We've lost the Canadian. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Heavy Snow falling in Shrevport, La right now....Just thought I'd mention that. Some locations down there pegged to get 5 inches today. Pathetic we can't even muster a trace. A good friend of mine from Tuscaloosa might get 2-4 inches of snow today. http://wbrc.images.worldnow.com/images/24564123_BG4.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Now here is something to track that may be of interest... Too some... Great Lakes "May" reach record ice levels http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/the-great-lakes-freeze-up-is-in-full-swing-heres-what-it-looks-like/45873/ Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Euro is loltastic. Ridging returns by March 10th. Mark my words. Although I guess the word "returns" implies that it ever even left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Euro is loltastic. Ridging returns by March 10th. Mark my words. Although I guess the word "returns" implies that it ever even left. GFS long range!!! 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 We need to break down the PV before we're going to get a true, large scale pattern change. Only then will the ENSO trend back negative, along with the PNA and PDO.. So the PV essentially controls ENSO? Hmm, hadn't heard that theory before. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Mild lows the next few mornings should clench warmest Feb on record for PDX and other locations. OLM won't even be close. They haven't had a record warm month since 1989. EUG will also fail to set a record. They haven't had a record warm month since 1995. FWIW! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 OLM won't even be close. They haven't had a record warm month since 1989. EUG will also fail to set a record. They haven't had a record warm month since 1995. FWIW!When was their last record cold month? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 When was their last record cold month? 1990 for OLM (Dec). 1992 for EUG (Mar). Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 1990 for OLM (Dec). 1989 for EUG (Feb).My late adolescence was a magical time. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 OLM won't even be close. They haven't had a record warm month since 1989. EUG will also fail to set a record. They haven't had a record warm month since 1995. FWIW! October 2014..... FWIW! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 October 2014.....I think that's too recent to count. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 October 2014..... Yup, just noticed that WRCC hadn't updated for that. So OLM and EUG saw their first record warm month since 1992 and 1995 respectively in Oct 2014. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Yup, just noticed that WRCC hadn't updated for that. So OLM and EUG saw their first record warm month since 1989 and 1995 respectively in Oct 2014. OLM was record warm in March 1992. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Yup, just noticed that WRCC hadn't updated for that. So OLM and EUG saw their first record warm month since 1989 and 1995 respectively in Oct 2014.They were certainly due! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 I think that's too recent to count. In an alternate cold phase universe, 1989 is actually more recent than 2014. Trippy sh*t. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Yup, just noticed that WRCC hadn't updated for that. So OLM and EUG saw their first record warm month since 1989 and 1995 respectively in Oct 2014. SEA, on the other hand, is working on their 5th record warm month since 2009. And PDX their 5th since 2004. Quite different than the rural stations. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 OLM was record warm in March 1992. Fixed. So Oct 2014 was the first record record warm month in 19 years for EUG and 22 years for OLM. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 In an alternate cold phase universe, 1989 is actually more recent than 2014. Trippy sh*t.1989 was one year away from being 24+ years from being 24+ years from our last top tier cold snap in the west. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 SEA, on the other hand, is working on their 5th record warm month since 2009. And PDX their 5th since 2004. Quite different than the rural stations. We'll always have the near record cold of April 2011 to offset that. #preciouscoldphasememories Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 SEA, on the other hand, is working on their 5th record warm month since 2009. And PDX their 5th since 2004. Quite different than the rural stations.Climate change is cleary metrosexual. #knitcapsandskinnyjeans Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 (.. cross-references. Two-fold.)http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/817-later-winter-2014-15-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=72197http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/791-pacific-northwest/?p=72301 Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 We'll always have the near record cold of April 2011 to offset that. #preciouscoldphasememories Hey, when people are talking about "one record warm month after another", it's worth considering that the two big stations with basically unchanged surroundings paint a different picture. This is something you'll find across the country. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 (.. cross-references. Two-fold.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/817-later-winter-2014-15-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=72197 http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/791-pacific-northwest/?p=72301A two fold cross reference sounds dirty. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Ah ha. ! (Maybe you should pass. And perhaps wait for something more "tame".) Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 26, 2015 Report Share Posted February 26, 2015 So the PV essentially controls ENSO? Hmm, hadn't heard that theory before.Basically, the interaction between the tropics and high latitudes/stratosphere results in ENSO. Many factors determine how that interaction plays out, though. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 26, 2015 Report Share Posted February 26, 2015 You could have heard it in his winter prediction thread, although he didn't actually say "controls." Something about SSW cooling the troposphere in January. It didn't happen. He'd been doing well up to that point.Yeah, the SSW was key...reverses the mass transfer gradient and lowers the tropical tropopause igniting/perturbing the tropical troposphere (~90% of SSWings are followed by major MJO waves). I got the Pacific/tropical forcings right, but the strat didn't cooperate, so we were left with a +NAM/+PNA under a -QBO waveguide..ugly for the western USA. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 26, 2015 Report Share Posted February 26, 2015 You could have heard it in his winter prediction thread, although he didn't actually say "controls." Something about SSW cooling the troposphere in January. It didn't happen. He'd been doing well up to that point. Yeah, I remember all the SSW stuff. Just wasn't clear he meant that the PV breakdown due to SSW was a factor that actually influenced ENSO. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 26, 2015 Report Share Posted February 26, 2015 Jared... still time for this to improve and bring lowland snow and copious mountain snow? The system on Monday is seriously moisture-starved. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_108_precip_p03.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 26, 2015 Report Share Posted February 26, 2015 Jared... still time for this to improve and bring lowland snow and copious mountain snow? The system on Monday is seriously moisture-starved. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_108_precip_p03.gifMaybe a few inches in the Oregon Cascades. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 26, 2015 Report Share Posted February 26, 2015 The 00z is a bit further west. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 26, 2015 Report Share Posted February 26, 2015 Jared... still time for this to improve and bring lowland snow and copious mountain snow? The system on Monday is seriously moisture-starved. No, but this could be slightly interesting. 00z is significantly further West. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/20150226/00/gfs_namer_132_1000_500_thick_s.gif Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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