February 2015 PNW Discussion

[Front Ranger]

Looks like the 12z GFS goes east!

 

Still closer to the Euro/Canadian than the 0z was.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Canadian is much colder.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015022412/gem_T850_us_34.png

[Deweydog]

29F this morning.

 

Global cooling is back, baby!

Told you change was coming.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015022412/gem_z500a_us_29.png

[Bham_Guy]

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/150224183623.gif

[Jesse]

Told you change was coming.

Might hit warmest February on record right on the nose as opposed to surpassing it by 2-3 degrees!

[Deweydog]

Might hit warmest February on record right on the nose as opposed to surpassing it by 2-3 degrees!

It's not your fault.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/150224183623.gif

 

Classic

[epiceast]

Timing moved up to 144

[Timmy]

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/150224183623.gif

 

 

just saw this, looks like a quick-hitter, but I'll take it.  Just a little east and it is just dry and cool.

[Front Ranger]

Euro holding steady as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very few ensemble members showing anything similar to the EURO or Canadian. 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[Bryant]

Been busy lately, and haven't checked into the weather at all until now. Looks like some potential cold/snow is on the way, and just by doing a quick check, it looks like it might not just be quick hitting like someone mentioned above. I wish this would have came into play earlier in the season, but tropical forcing is projected to stall out over the MC region, which is perfect for us. It stalled out over the IO recently, which gave the East coast quite the storm. Typhoon Rule also has cold anomalies in place over Japan right where we want them, which remain for quite some time. Wouldn't be surprised if much of the first half of March resulted in Western troughing. 

[Jesse]

Very few ensemble members showing anything similar to the EURO or Canadian.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

I was just going to post something similar. The GFS ensemble mean is actually the warmest it's been in days for the mid-long range.

[bainbridgekid]

Very few ensemble members showing anything similar to the EURO or Canadian. 

 

 

Still quite a few cold ones for Vancouver, though. Still lots of uncertainty obviously..

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS holds steady... in fact its a little farther east.

[BLI snowman]

I was just going to post something similar. The GFS ensemble mean is actually the warmest it's been in days for the mid-long range.

 

Nope, 12z was actually the coldest GFS ensembles of the last few runs.

 

Euro and Canadian ensembles look nice. Models seem to be coming around.

[Jesse]

Ridgy start to March on the 18z!

 

Change!1

[Jesse]

Nope, 12z was actually the coldest GFS ensembles of the last few runs.

 

Euro and Canadian ensembles look nice. Models seem to be coming around.

We'll see. I bet the Euro and Canadian cave in the next few runs.

[HighlandExperience]

We'll see. I bet the Euro and Canadian cave in the next few runs.

With our luck

[Jesse]

With our luck

Just the theme of this winter. Either a dry glancing blow or nothing.

[Deweydog]

Ridgy start to March on the 18z!

 

Change!1

Failure to consistently depress the shift key is sooooo 2007.

[Deweydog]

By the way... NOGAPS says NO snow for Bellingham!

[TT-SEA]

Failure to consistently depress the shift key is sooooo 2007.

 

 

Are you feeling this one?

 

I am sort of leaning towards the GFS with an eastward cave by the ECMWF in the next couple days.     But the 12Z ECMWF was pretty emphatic.  

[FroYoBro]

Wow, surprised how quiet this month has been.

[bainbridgekid]

By the way... NOGAPS says NO snow for Bellingham!

JMA is chilly though!

 

Pretty much a 2-23-14 repeat on there. Would be a nice snowstorm for Bellingham.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2015022412/jma_T850_us_8.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2015022412/jma_T850_us_9.png

[Deweydog]

Are you feeling this one?

 

I am sort of leaning towards the GFS with an eastward cave by the ECMWF in the next couple days. But the 12Z ECMWF was pretty emphatic.

I haven't been paying enough attention. After all, impacts will likely be minimal for the lowlands even if the colder solutions are closer to reality.

[BLI snowman]

By the way... NOGAPS says NO snow for Bellingham!

 

JMA says we may be in business though! Sorry south-of-Stanwood folks!

[TT-SEA]

I haven't been paying enough attention. After all, impacts will likely be minimal for the lowlands even if the colder solutions are closer to reality.

 

 

That is true,

 

Looked at the details from the majestic 12Z ECMWF and it shows rain on Monday into Monday night and then clearing on Tuesday with cool NE flow.    

 

No lowland snow and sunny after the main event so probabaly highs in the mid to upper 40s with enough wind to keep overnight temps up... just to annoy those who desperately care how cold the air is outside while they are sleeping.

[BLI snowman]

JMA is chilly though!

 

Pretty much a 2-23-14 repeat on there. Would be a nice snowstorm for Bellingham.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2015022412/jma_T850_us_8.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2015022412/jma_T850_us_9.png

 

Ha, didn't even see this post.

 

This guy gets it.

[Jesse]

Failure to consistently depress the shift key is sooooo 2007.

Figured it was high time to bring it back1

[BLI snowman]

That is true,

 

Looked at the details from the majestic 12Z ECMWF and it shows rain on Monday into Monday night and then clearing on Tuesday with cool NE flow.    

 

No lowland snow and sunny after the main event so probabaly highs in the mid to upper 40s with enough wind to keep overnight temps up... just to annoy those who desperately care how cold the air is outside while they are sleeping.

 

Eh, it wouldn't take much of a westward shift to give us this

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1989/us0302.php

 

Likely? No, but 6-7 days out that type of solution is still potentially on the table. 

[TT-SEA]

Eh, it wouldn't take much of a westward shift to give us this

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1989/us0302.php

 

Likely? No, but 6-7 days out that type of solution is still potentially on the table. 

 

Of course the potential is there.   That is why I was asking which way Matt was leaning.  

[Deweydog]

Wow, surprised how quiet this month has been.

It snowed in Colorado and rained in California. Wise up.

[Deweydog]

Figured it was high time to bring it back1

8 years is way too soon to hope for the whole nostalgic charm angle. Try "talk to the hand" or something...

[HighlandExperience]

Eh, it wouldn't take much of a westward shift to give us this

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1989/us0302.php

 

Likely? No, but 6-7 days out that type of solution is still potentially on the table.

I think that would make up for our winter.

[Deweydog]

Shouldn't model countdowns be in effect?

[Jesse]

Shouldn't model countdowns be in effect?

 

No.

[Deweydog]

No.

Old salty dog...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensemble madness?