February 2015 PNW Discussion

[weather girl]

I know you're being sarcastic. But the warmth in the west has been every bit as extreme as the cold in the east.

This is true. I think it was the Fox12 blog where I read that the west has broken nearly twice as many warmth records as the east has cold.

 

Also, nice to see (maybe) some movement in the SSTs. Snow Wizard must be delirious....wherever he is.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It will come back around. We had two major arctic outbreaks last winter.

[bainbridgekid]

Heck of a plunge in humidity this morning.

 

[Dan the Weatherman]

GFS ensemble mean for hour 138. Ridging just a little to close....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015022212/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_24.png

I agree. We need the ridge further west so any storms coming into the trough have more of an over water trajectory to bring much needed rain and snow to the West, including CA.

[TT-SEA]

Touch of snow on the Cascades this afternoon...

 

[Phil]

Global temperature is no different now than it was in 2002 at this time..what's changed in 13 years that makes "AGW" more of a factor now than it was then?

[Deweydog]

Global temperature is no different now than it was in 2002 at this time..what's changed in 13 years that makes "AGW" more of a factor now than it was then?

When did The Day After Tomorrow come out? AGW concern peaked that day.

[TT-SEA]

When did The Day After Tomorrow come out? AGW concern peaked that day.

 

May 26, 2004

[Jesse]

When did The Day After Tomorrow come out? AGW concern peaked that day.

 

That was a silly movie.

[Deweydog]

May 26, 2004

Probably a good time to bring up the fact it got totally snubbed by the Academy.

[Deweydog]

That was a silly movie.

Just the thought that cousin Eddie's brother could be the most brilliant climatologist on the planet is silly enough.

[Front Ranger]

Just the thought that cousin Eddie's brother could be the most brilliant climatologist on the planet is silly enough.

 

Dennis Quaid's career peaked in the early/mid 2000s. He was semi-in demand for a few years.

[Deweydog]

Dennis Quaid's career peaked in the early/mid 2000s. He was semi-in demand for a few years.

Then December 2008 came along...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[Jesse]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

Watch the op/ensemble mean gravitate toward those warmer members around March 5th.

[westiztehbest]

Is it a coincidence that the ridge retrogression is progged now that the SOI has swung positive in the last week?

(30 day average is now positive)

 

Year Day                            SOI

2015 44 1012.56 1007.25 3.50
2015 45 1013.20 1007.40 5.82
2015 46 1013.55 1008.10 4.16
2015 47 1013.89 1008.30 4.83
2015 48 1013.91 1006.25 14.62
2015 49 1012.79 1004.95 15.48
2015 50 1013.76 1004.15 23.85
2015 51 1014.75 1004.60 26.41
2015 52 1013.76 1005.20 18.88

[richard mann]

"co-incidence". 

 

.. Kind of a tough term to pin down.

 

 

.. But if not, I'd have to be shown more, why not.

[Front Ranger]

0z GFS shows a legit Arctic air mass and lowland snow at day 9.

[stuffradio]

The hyperbole on this forum is unreal. This current warmth we're experiencing is not caused by AGW. Even Professor Cliff Mass is calling those out with this opinion. The insanity we see on this forum is like those who called superstorm Sandy one that was caused by AGW. There is nothing that happens in this world anymore without being linked to AGW. This type of talk forces Cliff Mass to make several blog posts a year to vent his frustration. I am not Cliff Mass. I read posts from people who believe both sides. I'm more neutral.

[TT-SEA]

0z GFS shows a legit Arctic air mass and lowland snow at day 9.

 

That would officially make this an excellent winter then... multiple arctic air masses and lowland snow events at least for the Seattle area.     What more could anyone ask for?   We might be due for a dud soon though.

[bainbridgekid]

0z GFS shows a legit Arctic air mass and lowland snow at day 9.

Takes some unrealistic looking digging to get there, but it sure would be nice.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/20150223/00/gfs_namer_222_500_vort_ht_s.gif

[Deweydog]

I bet it gets watered down.

 

You heard it here first.  

 

Fox News.  

[BLI snowman]

That would officially make this an excellent winter then... multiple arctic air masses and lowland snow events at least for the Seattle area.     What more could anyone ask for?   We might be due for a dud soon though.

 

Nah, that's the cold phase at work, you can just expect a lot more of these kinds of great years.

[TT-SEA]

I bet it gets watered down.

 

You heard it here first.  

 

Fox News.  

 

Hope not.

 

One more event and Jim would be forced to call this a great winter by his standards.   

 

We had the mid-November intrusion... the end of November event with very cold lows and lowland snow... the end of December intrusion... and now an early March event with arctic air and lowland snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Takes some unrealistic looking digging to get there, but it sure would be nice.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/20150223/00/gfs_namer_222_500_vort_ht_s.gif

Hot diggity D**n!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015022300/gfs_T850_us_38.png

[TT-SEA]

00Z Canadian does not show the far westward digging...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_216_0000.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00Z Canadian does not show the far westward digging...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_216_0000.gif

 

Its funny how you only post the canadian when its a bucket of cold water. lol

[Deweydog]

Hope not.

 

One more event and Jim would be forced to call this a great winter by his standards.   

 

We had the mid-November intrusion... the end of November event with very cold lows and lowland snow... the end of December intrusion... and now an early March event with arctic air and lowland snow.

 

I"m pretty worried about it.  

[TT-SEA]

Its funny how you only post the canadian when its a bucket of cold water. lol

 

 

Not true.   Sometimes it goes the other way.

 

Just the first run since the epic 00Z GFS run!   I hoping for a couple days of cold and snow.   I think it would be entertaining to watch certain people on here wrestle with the idea that this is now a good winter for number of cold and snow events... meaning more than one.  

[BLI snowman]

00Z Canadian does not show the far westward digging...

 

 

 

It's pretty similar, actually:

 

GEM

 

 

GFS

 

 

 

 

This is happening. Learn to cope with it.

[TT-SEA]

Think we are going to squeeze in a repeat of this gorgeous weekend next week.    Timing has improved recently.   For awhile there we had rain events every Saturday.  

[TT-SEA]

It's pretty similar, actually:

 

GEM

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

 

GFS

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

 

 

 

This is happening. Learn to cope with it.

 

 

I am telling you... I would pay to see it happen.  

[Deweydog]

I am telling you... I would pay to see it happen.  

 

How much?  

[TT-SEA]

How much?  

 

 

Good question... maybe $100.   Just for the entertainment.    

 

I would pay more to have a month of cold onshore flow and copious mountain snow.   We are going to be gone for a good part of March and I want water this summer!

[Deweydog]

It's pretty similar, actually:

 

GEM

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

 

GFS

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

 

 

 

This is happening. Learn to cope with it.

3-5 is the new 1-5.

[epiceast]

Good question... maybe $100.   Just for the entertainment.    

 

I would pay more to have a month of cold onshore flow and copious mountain snow.   We are going to be gone for a good part of March and I want water this summer!

That's a lot. I would probably not pay more than amortized cost of a season pass.

[BLI snowman]

3-5 is the new 1-5.

 

It'll be in the upper 40s by the 5th, so no.

 

Major snowstorm on the 3rd though. Get those shovels ready!

[TT-SEA]

It'll be in the upper 40s by the 5th, so no.

 

Major snowstorm on the 3rd though. Get those shovels ready!

 

 

But we won't need them if it will be so warm right afterwards.    I am confused.   We still have the shovels and sleds down from the attic from the snowy goodness at the end of November.   Should we keep them down??   Tell me now.   I am waiting.   I had big plans to move them back up to the attic next weekend.   Big plans.

[Deweydog]

But we won't need them if it will be so warm right afterwards. I am confused. We still have the shovels and sleds down from the attic from the snowy goodness at the end of November. Should we keep them down?? Tell me now. I am waiting. I had big plans to move them back up to the attic next weekend. Big plans.

I'll fill you in on what you need to do for that $100.

[TT-SEA]

I'll fill you in on what you need to do for that $100.

 

 

I am putting everything up... and getting all the patio furniture out next weekend.    

 

Guaranteed to snow enough for shoveling and sledding.