February 2015 PNW Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's pretty good in the 10+ day range. Everything before then is pretty meh.

 

Chasing carrots is fun!

Some Cascade snowfall late this week. Potentially down to pass elevations!

[Jesse]

Some Cascade snowfall late this week. Potentially down to pass elevations!

 

Andrew elevations were looking likely several days ago!

[westcoastexpat]

Yeah, but places back east aren't seeing month after month of all time record cold. Maybe February, but that is it. We are seeing month after month of all-time warmth. 

 

That's not quite true...

 

The real story is in CA and NV where the drought is incredibly impressive (and dangerous).

 

The PNW has had a wet winter. Warm, but wet. It's certainly not extreme by any means. Nobody is suffering as a result of this uncharacteristically pleasant warmth, except ski resorts perhaps.

 

The real question is going to be this summer. If this pattern persists for another summer, then there is going to be some real concerns. No snow pack + dry summer = big trouble. Luckily it has been horrendously wet this winter and reservoirs are managing after the parching summer, but I'm not sure the region can sustain another dry summer without repercussions.

 

The real issue I see is the positive feedback of those warm water anomalies off the PNW coast. It's simply encouraging this pattern. But this isn't the first time this is happened. Our oceans have a "straw that broke the camel's back" behaviour: when the heat gets too much, redistribute. That is essentially the role of ENSO. It wouldn't surprise me to see a strong El Nino or La Nina year really shift this pattern for the PNW. But I don't think neutral years are going to cut it... we need a forcing to shake this. Weak El Nino or La Nina events are not good enough.

 

But with regard to the eastern cold... it has been extreme. The snow in Buffalo and Boston, the all-time record breaking cold in the midwest, the record lake ice cover... this has not been run-of-the-mill. 

[ShawniganLake]

That's not quite true...

 

The real story is in CA and NV where the drought is incredibly impressive (and dangerous).

 

The PNW has had a wet winter. Warm, but wet. It's certainly not extreme by any means. Nobody is suffering as a result of this uncharacteristically pleasant warmth, except ski resorts perhaps.

 

The real question is going to be this summer. If this pattern persists for another summer, then there is going to be some real concerns. No snow pack + dry summer = big trouble. Luckily it has been horrendously wet this winter and reservoirs are managing after the parching summer, but I'm not sure the region can sustain another dry summer without repercussions.

 

The real issue I see is the positive feedback of those warm water anomalies off the PNW coast. It's simply encouraging this pattern. But this isn't the first time this is happened. Our oceans have a "straw that broke the camel's back" behaviour: when the heat gets too much, redistribute. That is essentially the role of ENSO. It wouldn't surprise me to see a strong El Nino or La Nina year really shift this pattern for the PNW. But I don't think neutral years are going to cut it... we need a forcing to shake this. Weak El Nino or La Nina events are not good enough.

 

But with regard to the eastern cold... it has been extreme. The snow in Buffalo and Boston, the all-time record breaking cold in the midwest, the record lake ice cover... this has not been run-of-the-mill. 

 

 

Horrendously wet?  I don't think the numbers would support that.  Seasonably wet maybe.  It looks like most of the south coast of BC will be near to slightly drier than normal for November - February. 

 

I think a record warm February is just as extreme as a record cold February.  It just happens that one is pleasant and the other will freeze your balls off.

 

extreme

 

 

[ik-streem] /ɪkˈstrim/

SpellSyllables

• Synonyms
• Examples
• Word Origin

adjective, extremer, extremest.

1.

of a character or kind farthest removed from the ordinary or average:

[Jesse]

The single digit dewpoints at PDX are impressive.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z is much more blahhh then the 00z....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The single digit dewpoints at PDX are impressive.

 

Drying out those nasal passages.

[Jesse]

12z is much more blahhh then the 00z....

Change is coming!

[westcoastexpat]

 

Horrendously wet?  I don't think the numbers would support that.  Seasonably wet maybe.  It looks like most of the south coast of BC will be near to slightly drier than normal for November - February. 

 

I think a record warm February is just as extreme as a record cold February.  It just happens that one is pleasant and the other will freeze your balls off.

 

extreme

 

 

[ik-streem] /ɪkˈstrim/

SpellSyllables

• Synonyms
• Examples
• Word Origin

adjective, extremer, extremest.

1.

of a character or kind farthest removed from the ordinary or average:

 

 

YVR has had 20 mm more rainfall than average for the Nov-Feb (with more on the way for Thursday), but recall October had 60 mm more rainfall than normal and should be included in the "wet season". In any case, it has been wetter than normal. After the last few winters, it has been pretty wet.

 

When you're talking about extreme temperature anomalies in February for a maritime climate vs. a continental climate, I think we know where the story is going to be, and rightfully so.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'd be interested to see how many stations across the west are on track to see their warmest DJF on record. Should be a fairly staggering list.

 

This is directly after many areas saw their warmest summer and fall on record too.

 

Its cold in Cleveland.

[Jesse]

Its cold in Cleveland.

Well boy do I feel like a dummy now!

 

#catastrophicglobalcoolingisreal

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well boy do I feel like a dummy now!

 

#catastrophicglobalcoolingisreal

Just ask joe bastardi!

[Jesse]

Just ask joe bastardi!

Or Dewey as long as he's arguing with me and not Flatiron!

[Jesse]

Frigid low 40s at PDX this morning.

 

Sorry 1991 and 1958, 2015 just wanted it more.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Frigid low 40s at PDX this morning.

 

Sorry 1991 and 1958, 2015 just wanted it more.

 

Exactly. 

 

50 as of 10am. I laughed pretty hard when I saw that the NWS was going for a high around 50 at PDX. Offshore flow, full sunshine and these kind of dp's. Give me a break.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like they bumped up those forecast highs with the 930am update....

 

Forecast lows tonight

 

PDX: 32

SLE: 27

EUG: 23

 

If EUG hits 23 that will kill a lot of early blooms!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is a pretty epic arctic airmass for early March for the middle of the country. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015022212/gem_T850_us_41.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS ensemble mean for hour 138. Ridging just a little to close....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015022212/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_24.png

[Jesse]

Looks like they bumped up those forecast highs with the 930am update....

 

Forecast lows tonight

 

PDX: 32

SLE: 27

EUG: 23

 

If EUG hits 23 that will kill a lot of early blooms!

With the extremely low dps some cold lows could be possible with places that decouple tonight.

 

I doubt PDX decouples, though.

[Front Ranger]

Frigid low 40s at PDX this morning.

 

Sorry 1991 and 1958, 2015 just wanted it more.

 

It'll be a lot chillier tomorrow morning with calmer winds.

 

In places to the north where the wind calmed, it was quite frosty this morning. 

 

OLM: 25

BLI: 28

McChord: 26

Arlington: 27

[TT-SEA]

It'll be a lot chillier tomorrow morning with calmer winds.

 

In places to the north where the wind calmed, it was quite frosty this morning. 

 

OLM: 25

BLI: 28

McChord: 26

Arlington: 27

 

 

42 here this morning with a light east wind... already 54 now.

[Front Ranger]

This is a pretty epic arctic airmass for early March for the middle of the country. 

 

 

 

Some models are hinting at the third top-tier air mass of the cold season for this area. Unbelievable how consistent the blocking placement has been recently.

[Front Ranger]

42 here this morning with a light east wind... already 54 now.

 

Yeah, you're in a downsloping area as well. I'm sure you'll be colder tomorrow morning, too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I hit 28 this morning.

[Deweydog]

Or Dewey as long as he's arguing with me and not Flatiron!

Your loss of perspective is your problem, not mine.

 

#generationY

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, you're in a downsloping area as well. I'm sure you'll be colder tomorrow morning, too.

 

 

Not likely.   Here is the wind map for early tomorrow morning.   East wind again.   

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/ww_wgsfc.24.0000.gif

[Jesse]

Your loss of perspective is your problem, not mine.

 

#generationY

 

Still waiting for you to point out that watershed post where I lost all perspective.

 

The type of insanity we've seen the last six months is made more likely by AGW. Is AGW the direct cause? Obviously not. But periods of unprecedented warmth like this are becoming more and common. See the last 15 years across anywhere in the US/World.

 

That has been my message all along. I have not deviated.

 

I know, I know, it's cold in Cleveland right now. Globally we are on track to blow away another monthly record, though.

[Jesse]

I'd be interested to see how many stations across the west are on track to see their warmest DJF on record. Should be a fairly staggering list.

 

This is directly after many areas saw their warmest summer and fall on record too.

 

I wonder why Flatiron never got around to rebutting this one.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still waiting for you to point out that watershed post where I lost all perspective.

 

The type of insanity we've seen the last six months is made more likely by AGW. Is AGW the direct cause? Obviously not. But periods of unprecedented warmth like this are becoming more and common. See the last 15 years across anywhere in the US/World.

 

That has been my message all along. I have not deviated.

 

I know, I know, it's cold in Cleveland right now. Globally we are on track to blow away another monthly record, though.

 

Your point is valid. As Mark pointed out in his blog the other day. February will not even be an anomalously cold month nationally. 

[Jesse]

Your point is valid. As Mark pointed out in his blog the other day. February will not even be an anomalously cold month nationally.

But Boston! Frozen harbors! Lost perspective!

[Front Ranger]

I'd be interested to see how many stations across the west are on track to see their warmest DJF on record. Should be a fairly staggering list.

 

This is directly after many areas saw their warmest summer and fall on record too.

 

I assume you're familiar with PDX, but here's some of the other major stations throughout the West:

 

SEA has it easily wrapped up, but of course the SEA we have now is so different than the SEA of previous decades.

 

Spokane will fall well short of 1957-58.

 

Boise likely finishes behind 2002-03 and 1977-78.

 

Billings, not even close to a record.

 

Pendleton will not be close to a record.

 

EUG will be very close to a record, neck and neck with 1994-95.

 

Sacramento has warmest on record wrapped up.

 

Los Angeles should finish behind 1985-86.

 

Las Vegas probably has warmest on record, but tough call since they'll be way cooler the final week of the month.

 

SLC almost certainly has 1977-78 beat, although they'll also be much cooler this final week so could make it close. Like SEA, another station that has experienced significant changes for the warmer.

 

Here at DEN, our record is 1980-81 and we won't even be in top 10 warm territory.

[westcoastexpat]

 

February should certainly end up anomalously below normal for the US, but only slightly. The anomalies for the east are greater than for the west.

 

Salt Lake City, Lake Tahoe, Toronto and New England are having incredible months.

 

*Note that this map is in Celsius

[Front Ranger]

Your point is valid. As Mark pointed out in his blog the other day. February will not even be an anomalously cold month nationally. 

 

Yeah, but if we're looking at things from a national perspective, there were more cold records set the past two years than warm records. Not that it means one thing when it comes to AGW, but it's still the national perspective.

[epiceast]

Still no zonal flow. Hour 120 shortwave looks intersting though, and another potential one at 192

[Deweydog]

Still waiting for you to point out that watershed post where I lost all perspective.

 

The type of insanity we've seen the last six months is made more likely by AGW. Is AGW the direct cause? Obviously not. But periods of unprecedented warmth like this are becoming more and common. See the last 15 years across anywhere in the US/World.

 

That has been my message all along. I have not deviated.

 

I know, I know, it's cold in Cleveland right now. Globally we are on track to blow away another monthly record, though.

Eh, you were a lot more alarmist than this portrays on several occasions over the last few months. Admittedly you've centered a bit lately, probably due in part to peer pressure and such.

 

Regional bias is a fact of life, yes, but it really sours an objective discussion about actual climate change. Three years ago were obviously easier times for us.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still no zonal flow. Hour 120 shortwave looks intersting though, and another potential one at 192

 

Maybe some advisory totals. Certainly nothing to really make up much ground. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well the 12z ensembles definitely have a strong signal for west coast troughing in the long range...For what its worth.

[BLI snowman]

Well the 12z ensembles definitely have a strong signal for west coast troughing in the long range...For what its worth.

 

That March 2-5 period is still the one to watch. May be similar to the early March event last year for us!

[Jesse]

Eh, you were a lot more alarmist than this portrays on several occasions over the last few months. Admittedly you've centered a bit lately, probably due in part to peer pressure and such.

 

Regional bias is a fact of life, yes, but it really sours an objective discussion about actual climate change. Three years ago were obviously easier times for us.

Sounds like a fairly subjective analysis of my subjective analysis.

[Deweydog]

Sounds like a fairly subjective analysis of my subjective analysis.

Difference of course is the fact there is little or nothing subjective about the push/pull of meteorology and the road to warm anomalies on a week to week, month to month basis. Annecdotal accounts of bigger picture implications are drenched with hot, wet, slippery subjectivity.