February 2015 PNW Discussion

[ShawniganLake]

Euro verification scores have been below the GFS this winter.

 

 

Thought I'd mention Hour 120 Northern Hemisphere 500 mb height anomaly correlations over last 30 days for GFS and Euro since GFS now refers to the new GFS.

 

Last 30 days:

ECMWF: 0.919

GFS: 0.893

CMC: 0.878

 

Last 63 runs (since new GFS became operational)

ECMWF: 0.917

GFS: 0.891

 

Last 365 days:

ECMWF: 0.904

GFS: 0.874

 

New GFS is still sub-par compared to Euro although we've only had about 16 days of operational runs. Will be interesting to see how it fares over the rest of 2015.

 

Apparently not over the last 30 days in the Northern Hemisphere.

[Front Ranger]

Olympia down 22 degrees in four hours!

 

#takethatshitBoston

 

Boston got up to 37 yesterday. Some snow melted.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Canadian is way different than the GFS at hour 240. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015022400/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

[BLI snowman]

Actually, what I said was that I thought it would be better than January.

 

After a horrid first half of the month (aside from the much needed rains in CA), we've certainly see a better pattern for the West overall return the second half of this month, better than anything since late December in terms of cold and widespread snowfall. That hasn't translated into "goodies" for the PNW, but the pattern is growing progressively colder, and there's a decent shot of mountain snow coming later this week it appears.

 

0.0" of snow at Government Camp this month, a first for February.

 

All time monthly records at PDX and SEA.

 

Sorry, it hasn't been better. Accept that and move along. 

[Deweydog]

Not recently. The Euro has been leading the way with the recent pattern shift to colder weather in the West. GFS has been all over the place past day 5.

We've definitely moved into the "ish" portion of our quietish month!

[Deweydog]

Actually, what I said was that I thought it would be better than January.

 

After a horrid first half of the month (aside from the much needed rains in CA), we've certainly see a better pattern for the West overall return the second half of this month, better than anything since late December in terms of cold and widespread snowfall. That hasn't translated into "goodies" for the PNW, but the pattern is growing progressively colder, and there's a decent shot of mountain snow coming later this week it appears.

Spin it!

[Front Ranger]

Canadian is way different than the GFS at hour 240. 

 

 

It's also way different at hour 174. 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Spin it!

 

You saying I called for a "cold onshore flow revival" this month was rather heavy spin.

[stuffradio]

Canadian is way different than the GFS at hour 240. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015022400/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

Go Banana!

[stuffradio]

Boston got up to 37 yesterday. Some snow melted.

Tears were lost.

[Deweydog]

You saying I called for a "cold onshore flow revival" this month was rather heavy spin.

There was none in January. You said it would be back in February. I believe that would have been a revival. It turned out to be a bad call, especially given the nino tendencies which have been persistent. Just own it.

[Front Ranger]

We've definitely moved into the "ish" portion of our quietish month!

 

I think you have to keep in mind the different perspective that I have, compared to most on here. I take a broader (to borrow a Richard-ism) view of things like pattern shifts, not just PNW-centric. The pattern has definitely shifted to the coldest/stormiest we've see for the West overall since late December, and that looks to continue.

 

Granted, I thought we'd see more of a return to mountain snows in the PNW by now and that the month overall would be cooler for you guys, but the overall western ridge pattern that dominated for so long has certainly abated.

[Deweydog]

I think you have to keep in mind the different perspective that I have, compared to most on here. I take a broader (to borrow a Richard-ism) view of things like pattern shifts, not just PNW-centric. The pattern has definitely shifted to the coldest/stormiest we've see for the West overall since late December, and that looks to continue.

 

Granted, I thought we'd see more of a return to mountain snows in the PNW by now and that the month overall would be cooler for you guys, but the overall western ridge pattern that dominated for so long has certainly abated.

I think most people do find it a little odd someone 1,000 miles away so feverishly obsesses over PNW weather.

[Front Ranger]

0.0" of snow at Government Camp this month, a first for February.

 

All time monthly records at PDX and SEA.

 

Sorry, it hasn't been better. Accept that and move along. 

 

Premature...

[Front Ranger]

I think most people do find it a little odd someone 1,000 miles away so feverishly obsesses over PNW weather.

 

 

"Feverishly obsesses"? Going heavy on the hyperbole again there, doc.

 

I lived there most my life. It's like following a sports team you grew up with once you move to another city. I still root for you guys.

[Deweydog]

 

"Feverishly obsesses"? Going heavy on the hyperbole again there, doc.

 

I lived there most my life. It's like following a sports team you grew up with once you move to another city. I still root for you guys.

I guess I should have narrowed that down to central Thurston County.

[BLI snowman]

Premature...

 

Sticking snow doesn't look very likely down that low this week. Either way, it's been a historically woeful February and you oversold the "differences". Accept it and move along.

[MikeInEverett]

Nice... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015022400/ecmwf_z500a_sd_namer_8.png

[bainbridgekid]

00z Euro goes legit arctic.

 

-13 850mb temps to PDX at hour 204.

 

Not bad:

 

http://download.ecmwf.org/data/web248/get_legacy_plot-web248-20150224065653-4215-2189.gif

[BLI snowman]

This will be a good Euro versus GFS test.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well look at that EURO

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS ensemble

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015022400/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_33.png

[ShawniganLake]

From Brett Anderson earlier this afternoon.

 

 

"Cold expands west later this week

The West Coast high pressure ridge will expand farther north and west late this week into next week which will open the door for a piece of the Arctic air to drop into southern BC. While this will certainly not be any type of cold air mass to write home about, it will be notable for this winter due to the fact that it has been so mild."

[richard mann]

.... the Moon's gravity is actually not sufficient enough to account for the observed tidal behavior.

How about a quick run-down of the "actual" facts and cause for us professor. ?

[richard mann]

Not recently. The Euro has been leading the way with the recent pattern shift to colder weather in the West. GFS has been all over the place past day 5.

Too bad. I'd been hoping that with the upgrade it be would showing a more distinctive improvement. Of course even a bit better capability more over-all where compared with the ECMWF.

[richard mann]

I think most people do find it a little odd someone 1,000 miles away so feverishly obsesses over PNW weather.

 

.. A misrepresentation that doesn't hold up in my view. Perhaps my "less narrow" perspective from here where I am at the southern edge of the region more only.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/141-2014-enso-thread/page-3?do=findComment&comment=71877

[westiztehbest]

Hmm.  Haven't seen that for a while.

 

[TT-SEA]

Euro verification scores have been below the GFS this winter.

 

 

Feels like that is true lately.

 

Maybe it feels that way because its no longer swerving all over the road like it did before the upgrade.

[TT-SEA]

This will be a good Euro versus GFS test.

 

 

Definitely... because the GFS shows nothing.   Including the 06Z run.     

 

The 06Z run has some light rain later this week and then nothing for the rest of the run.    Not real cold... and certainly dry.

 

Hard to call this a stormier pattern as Flatiron is doing.   The pattern during early February was much more stormy... just too warm.

[Front Ranger]

Definitely... because the GFS shows nothing.   Including the 06Z run.     

 

The 06Z run has some light rain later this week and then nothing for the rest of the run.    Not real cold... and certainly dry.

 

Hard to call this a stormier pattern as Flatiron is doing.   The pattern during early February was much more stormy... just too warm.

 

As I said, for the West overall, it is. We are seeing legitimate Western troughing, something that was non-existent pretty much all of January and the first half of this month.

 

So far, it's been centered to the east of you guys, but the trend is west. If the Euro/Canadian are correct, the PNW will soon get in on more of the cold and precip.

 

Also, the 6z GFS was a big-time step towards the Euro/Canadian. Much further west with everything at day 6/7 compared to the 0z.

[TT-SEA]

Mark talks about how things have changed in the models... from looking wet and stormy to basically the same pattern we have seen all winter.

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/02/23/cooler-weather-ahead-but-not-much-rain-or-mountain-snow/

[Phil]

You were the one saying just the other day the Euro has been better since the upgrade?

I think you're confusing me with someone else.

[Phil]

Apparently not over the last 30 days in the Northern Hemisphere.

I just have the global numbers, not sure about the NH. Haven't bothered to calculate that.

[HighlandExperience]

Mark talks about how things have changed in the models... from looking wet and stormy to basically the same pattern we have seen all winter.

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/02/23/cooler-weather-ahead-but-not-much-rain-or-mountain-snow/

Let us hope that the 12z swings in favor of the euro today.

[Jesse]

29F this morning.

 

Global cooling is back, baby!

[Tyler Mode]

28.9 here this morning, my coldest low since January 21st.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the 12z GFS goes east!

[stuffradio]

It's insane how drastically the CFSv2 flip flopped today. It went from cold to dry, cold to wet, and now today it did a 360 and it's warm and dry for March.

[Front Ranger]

I think you're confusing me with someone else.

 

Must be. But yeah, it was for the NH like Shawnigan Lake's stats.