February 2015 PNW Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mild lows the next few mornings should clench warmest Feb on record for PDX and other locations.

 

Now we try to set the March record!

[Jesse]

06z ensembles really take a dump on our hopes and dreams

This isn't the one, big guy.

 

I don't generally side with Phil, but I actually agree with him that the upcoming "pattern change" will probably end up just a slight blip in the overall regime we've been stuck in for months.

 

We may have to wait until after next winter's niño to see any meaningful cold anomalies. Crazy to think we may not see a lot of cascade snowfall this spring, because they are scary bad right now.

 

At least it's cold in Boston!

[Jesse]

Now we try to set the March record!

Change is coming!!

[Deweydog]

This pattern change is being overplayed because we're missing the elephant in the room. I suspect be back in a +PNA by the middle of March.

 

Same story all winter..we get a burp of hi-freq WPAC forcing superimposed on underlying QBO/ENSO driven mass transport.

 

What results is repetitive NPAC wave-breaking, and a tank in the EPO along with an attempted bombardment of the PV. The initial PNA response cannot sustain on its own given the pull of the forementioned underlying inertial forcings unless our partner in crime (the dominant, fully coupled PV) is compromised. Why?

 

The PV is dominating high latitude mass transport, export-returns, and wave guidance. It's fully coupled to the NAM and the Hudson Bay vortex. The PV works like a giant tornado with multiple vortices at the base. Destroy the vortex aloft, you stop both the development and subsequent poleward progression of the vortices below. Hence you tank the NAM, reverse the mass transport gradients, and pass the hot-potato into the hands of the higher frequency tropical forcings which will then begin battle with the lower frequency, ENSO dominated forcings/resonances. That's how you change a low frequency pattern.

 

Look at January 2013. Before the SSW/mass transport breakdown that occurred around the turn of that New Year, we'd been in a persistent regimen since February of 2011, essentily the opposite of the one we're in now. We all know how that changed, with a total transition in the span of a few weeks. The dominant circulations had done a 180 by January 20th.

 

We need to break down the PV before we're going to get a true, large scale pattern change. Only then will the ENSO trend back negative, along with the PNA and PDO.

You're forgetting an even bigger elephant in the room. Baseball/softball season starts in two weeks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sweet. Another dangling carrot.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_300_1000_500_thick.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We've lost the Canadian.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm a big fan of the totally meaningless long range GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

_{Heavy Snow falling in Shrevport, La right now....Just thought I'd mention that.}

[Deweydog]

We've lost the Canadian.

 

[HighlandExperience]

_{Heavy Snow falling in Shrevport, La right now....Just thought I'd mention that.}

 

Some locations down there pegged to get 5 inches today. Pathetic we can't even muster a trace.

 

A good friend of mine from Tuscaloosa might get 2-4 inches of snow today.

 

http://wbrc.images.worldnow.com/images/24564123_BG4.jpg

[luvssnow_spokane]

Now here is something to track that may be of interest... Too some... 

Great Lakes "May" reach record ice levels

 

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/the-great-lakes-freeze-up-is-in-full-swing-heres-what-it-looks-like/45873/

[Jesse]

Euro is loltastic.

 

Ridging returns by March 10th. Mark my words. Although I guess the word "returns" implies that it ever even left.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro is loltastic.

 

Ridging returns by March 10th. Mark my words. Although I guess the word "returns" implies that it ever even left.

 

GFS long range!!!

[Front Ranger]

We need to break down the PV before we're going to get a true, large scale pattern change. Only then will the ENSO trend back negative, along with the PNA and PDO..

 

So the PV essentially controls ENSO? Hmm, hadn't heard that theory before.

[Front Ranger]

Mild lows the next few mornings should clench warmest Feb on record for PDX and other locations.

 

OLM won't even be close. They haven't had a record warm month since 1989.

 

EUG will also fail to set a record. They haven't had a record warm month since 1995.

 

FWIW!

[Deweydog]

OLM won't even be close. They haven't had a record warm month since 1989.

 

EUG will also fail to set a record. They haven't had a record warm month since 1995.

 

FWIW!

When was their last record cold month?

[Front Ranger]

When was their last record cold month?

 

1990 for OLM (Dec). 

 

1992 for EUG (Mar).

[Deweydog]

1990 for OLM (Dec).

 

1989 for EUG (Feb).

My late adolescence was a magical time.

[BLI snowman]

OLM won't even be close. They haven't had a record warm month since 1989.

 

EUG will also fail to set a record. They haven't had a record warm month since 1995.

 

FWIW!

 

October 2014.....

 

FWIW!

[Deweydog]

October 2014.....

I think that's too recent to count.

[Front Ranger]

October 2014.....

 

Yup, just noticed that WRCC hadn't updated for that.

 

So OLM and EUG saw their first record warm month since 1992 and 1995 respectively in Oct 2014.

[BLI snowman]

Yup, just noticed that WRCC hadn't updated for that.

 

So OLM and EUG saw their first record warm month since 1989 and 1995 respectively in Oct 2014.

 

OLM was record warm in March 1992. 

[Deweydog]

Yup, just noticed that WRCC hadn't updated for that.

 

So OLM and EUG saw their first record warm month since 1989 and 1995 respectively in Oct 2014.

They were certainly due!

[BLI snowman]

I think that's too recent to count.

 

In an alternate cold phase universe, 1989 is actually more recent than 2014. Trippy sh*t.

[Front Ranger]

Yup, just noticed that WRCC hadn't updated for that.

 

So OLM and EUG saw their first record warm month since 1989 and 1995 respectively in Oct 2014.

 

SEA, on the other hand, is working on their 5th record warm month since 2009. And PDX their 5th since 2004.

 

Quite different than the rural stations.

[Front Ranger]

OLM was record warm in March 1992. 

 

Fixed.

 

So Oct 2014 was the first record record warm month in 19 years for EUG and 22 years for OLM.

[Deweydog]

In an alternate cold phase universe, 1989 is actually more recent than 2014. Trippy sh*t.

1989 was one year away from being 24+ years from being 24+ years from our last top tier cold snap in the west.

[BLI snowman]

SEA, on the other hand, is working on their 5th record warm month since 2009. And PDX their 5th since 2004.

 

Quite different than the rural stations.

 

We'll always have the near record cold of April 2011 to offset that.

 

#preciouscoldphasememories

[Deweydog]

SEA, on the other hand, is working on their 5th record warm month since 2009. And PDX their 5th since 2004.

 

Quite different than the rural stations.

Climate change is cleary metrosexual.

 

#knitcapsandskinnyjeans

[richard mann]

(.. cross-references. Two-fold.)

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/817-later-winter-2014-15-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=72197

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/791-pacific-northwest/?p=72301

[Front Ranger]

We'll always have the near record cold of April 2011 to offset that.

 

#preciouscoldphasememories

 

Hey, when people are talking about "one record warm month after another", it's worth considering that the two big stations with basically unchanged surroundings paint a different picture. This is something you'll find across the country.

[Deweydog]

(.. cross-references. Two-fold.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/817-later-winter-2014-15-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=72197

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/791-pacific-northwest/?p=72301

A two fold cross reference sounds dirty.

[richard mann]

Ah ha. !

 

(Maybe you should pass. And perhaps wait for something more "tame".)

[Phil]

So the PV essentially controls ENSO? Hmm, hadn't heard that theory before.

Basically, the interaction between the tropics and high latitudes/stratosphere results in ENSO. Many factors determine how that interaction plays out, though.

[Phil]

You could have heard it in his winter prediction thread, although he didn't actually say "controls." Something about SSW cooling the troposphere in January. It didn't happen. He'd been doing well up to that point.

Yeah, the SSW was key...reverses the mass transfer gradient and lowers the tropical tropopause igniting/perturbing the tropical troposphere (~90% of SSWings are followed by major MJO waves).

 

I got the Pacific/tropical forcings right, but the strat didn't cooperate, so we were left with a +NAM/+PNA under a -QBO waveguide..ugly for the western USA.

[Front Ranger]

You could have heard it in his winter prediction thread, although he didn't actually say "controls."  Something about SSW cooling the troposphere in January.  It didn't happen.  He'd been doing well up to that point.

 

Yeah, I remember all the SSW stuff. Just wasn't clear he meant that the PV breakdown due to SSW was a factor that actually influenced ENSO.

[TT-SEA]

Jared... still time for this to improve and bring lowland snow and copious mountain snow?   

 

The system on Monday is seriously moisture-starved.    

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_108_precip_p03.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jared... still time for this to improve and bring lowland snow and copious mountain snow?   

 

The system on Monday is seriously moisture-starved.    

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_108_precip_p03.gif

Maybe a few inches in the Oregon Cascades.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 00z is a bit further west.

[bainbridgekid]

Jared... still time for this to improve and bring lowland snow and copious mountain snow?   

 

The system on Monday is seriously moisture-starved.    

No, but this could be slightly interesting. 00z is significantly further West.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/20150226/00/gfs_namer_132_1000_500_thick_s.gif