February 2015 PNW Discussion

[Gradient Keeper]

Shouldn't model countdowns be in effect?

[Model Countdown]

00z GFS 1 hour 10 minutes

00z GEM(CMC) 2 hours 30 minutes

00z ECMWF 3 hours 40 minutes

 

Hard to ignore the EURO's consistency with this cold shot. Ensembles look real good too. Pattern change begins upstream in 4-5 days. Done deal

[Jesse]

Ensemble madness?

 

18z looks improved.

[Deweydog]

[Model Countdown]

00z GFS 1 hour 10 minutes

00z GEM(CMC) 2 hours 30 minutes

00z ECMWF 3 hours 40 minutes

 

Hard to ignore the EURO's consistency with this cold shot. Ensembles look real good too. Pattern change begins upstream in 4-5 days. Done deal

Score!

[Parksvillewx]

Score!

 

I wonder where Snow and Snow wiz went? Haven't heard from either of them in a while..

[Gradient Keeper]

Score!

I was summoned here by someone from my PDX Weather Facebook group

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Do my eyes deceive me or is December about to arrive?

 

Been lurking in the models off and on for a while--and since there was nothing worth talking about, I continued to lurk.

 

Unfortunately, due to the sun angle, most of us may receive nothing more than cold rain--although overnight, we may get lucky.  But at least there's hope this ridging will end soon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z is running!!!!!

[Deweydog]

This is it, *******! It's now or never! Pull the goalie! It's four-down territory!

 

You can Google the sports references, Jesse.

[BLI snowman]

This is it, *******! It's now or never! Pull the goalie! It's four-down territory!

 

You can Google the sports references, Jesse.

 

We're at the 1 yard line now. Lynch will bring it home for us.

 

Too soon?

[Deweydog]

We're at the 1 yard line now. Lynch will bring it home for us.

 

Too soon?

Tender meat.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the 00z is coming in a little chillier for the weekend. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

This is it, *******! It's now or never! Pull the goalie! It's four-down territory!

 

You can Google the sports references, Jesse.

If he dies, he dies.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS holds steady with its previous runs.

 

Nothing to see here.    A little cold rain... some cooler northerly flow.

[bainbridgekid]

Looks like the 00z is coming in a little chillier for the weekend. 

Out to hour 135 it looks chillier and further West with the cold next week too.

[TT-SEA]

Out to hour 135 it looks chillier and further West with the cold next week too.

Going nowhere.

[Jesse]

If he dies, he dies.

Huh?

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Huh?

Rocky 72.

 

Kind of a sports cliche.

[bainbridgekid]

Going nowhere.

It's still way better than the last several GFS runs.

 

18z:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/20150224/18/gfs_namer_159_1000_500_thick_s.gif

00z:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/20150225/00/gfs_namer_153_1000_500_thick_s.gif

[TT-SEA]

It's still way better than the last several GFS runs.

 

18z:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/20150224/18/gfs_namer_159_1000_500_thick_s.gif

00z:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/20150225/00/gfs_namer_153_1000_500_thick_s.gif

Don't think it matters either way. This will be a non-event.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

More Cascade snow!

[TT-SEA]

More Cascade snow!

 

A little.

 

This pattern is just not what we need.   We need raging cold onshore flow.   

 

Not systems from north starved for moisture.

[Deweydog]

We need solar and natural gas! Not more fracking continental air!

[Front Ranger]

A little.

 

This pattern is just not what we need.   We need raging cold onshore flow.   

 

Not systems from north starved for moisture.

 

Improvement is improvement.

 

Hard to say how it will all shake out at this point, but the models look a hell of a lot more promising than they have for awhile. Even if all it means is mountain snow and cool anomalies for the lowlands!

 

A spring 1992 redux looking a bit less likely.

[Front Ranger]

We need solar and natural gas! Not more fracking continental air!

 

Ha.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Canadian says ******* game on!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015022500/gem_T850_us_31.png

[Front Ranger]

Canadian says ******* game on!

 

It's definitely cold, but not as far west as the 12z. At face value, would still deliver a little lowland snow.

[HighlandExperience]

It's definitely cold, but not as far west as the 12z. At face value, would still deliver a little lowland snow.

 

A March 1989 type event would redeem this winter. 

[Front Ranger]

A March 1989 type event would redeem this winter. 

 

That's asking a lot, considering that was one of the greatest all-time March events for snow/cold in the western lowlands.

 

But hey!

[TT-SEA]

Canadian says ******* game on!

 

This is not really game on... and its actually bad because its so dry.    That does not help the mountains.   Sunny with highs in the 40s is not really exciting.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_180_0000.gif

[luvssnow_spokane]

It's definitely cold, but not as far west as the 12z. At face value, would still deliver a little lowland snow.

lowland slop would be a better description. *yawn*. We really need to get in pattern for mountain snow. At this point I am sure it will be cool fairly dry event at best.

[Front Ranger]

This is not really game on... and its actually bad because its so dry.    That does not help the mountains.   Sunny with highs in the 40s is not really exciting.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_180_0000.gif

 

OMG. It's something with potential that's interesting to track.

 

And any particular reason you are showing hour 180 instead of say hour 156?

[HighlandExperience]

This is not really game on... and its actually bad because its so dry.    That does not help the mountains.   Sunny with highs in the 40s is not really exciting.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_180_0000.gif

 

 

At least it is a step in the right direction. But yes I generally agree with you. Highs in the mid 40s and sunshine and some cold weather is boring. Still better than the GFS.

[Front Ranger]

lowland slop would be a better description. *yawn* we really need to get in pattern for mountain snow.

 

You should just change your avatar pic to a yawny face.

[Deweydog]

With the mountains lacking snowpack, a pattern supporting mountain snow would sure be nice. Has this been considered?

[luvssnow_spokane]

OMG. It's something with potential that's interesting to track.

 

And any particular reason you are showing hour 180 instead of say hour 156?

we always have something to track somewhere. Tracking a marginal, Coolish, fairly dry event that will most likely not deliver is not all that exciting for some so get over it... Why are you so concerned about our weather here and what people think? We need something meaningful like mountain snow.

[luvssnow_spokane]

You should just change your avatar pic to a yawny face.

wonderful suggestion.

[TT-SEA]

OMG. It's something with potential that's interesting to track.

 

And any particular reason you are showing hour 180 instead of say hour 156?

 

 

Andrew showed 180 hours.   Just showing the corresponding 500mb pattern.

[TT-SEA]

With the mountains lacking snowpack, a pattern supporting mountain snow would sure be nice. Has this been considered?

 

 

Obviously not!

 

Seems like 48 degree sunshine with NE flow is where the true excitement lies.   

[Front Ranger]

we always have something to track somewhere. Tracking a marginal, Coolish, fairly dry event that will most likely not deliver is not all that exciting for some so get over it... Why are you so concerned about our weather here and what people think? We need something meaningful like mountain snow.

 

So you see no difference between tracking the upcoming pattern and the patterns available to track since late December? None at all?

 

Why does it bother you that I care about and track the weather in the PNW? Good lord...people are free to think what they want and care about what they want. 

 

If all you want is mountain snowfall, great! But your endless, regurgitated wet blanket remarks get old. Why do you care if other people are actually interested in this pattern? Why do you always feel the need to downplay others interest?