February 2015 PNW Discussion

[BLI snowman]

But we won't need them if it will be so warm right afterwards.    I am confused.   We still have the shovels and sleds down from the attic from the snowy goodness at the end of November.   Should we keep them down??   Tell me now.   I am waiting.   I had big plans to move them back up to the attic next weekend.   Big plans.

 

You won't need them anyways because the snow will fall all around you. Tough luck.

[TT-SEA]

You won't need them anyways because the snow will fall all around you. Tough luck.

 

Darn.   

[Deweydog]

Euro says things are possible!

[bainbridgekid]

Euro says things are possible!

Mountain snow?

[Deweydog]

Mountain snow?

Sure, why not....

[westcoastexpat]

The hyperbole on this forum is unreal. This current warmth we're experiencing is not caused by AGW. Even Professor Cliff Mass is calling those out with this opinion. The insanity we see on this forum is like those who called superstorm Sandy one that was caused by AGW. There is nothing that happens in this world anymore without being linked to AGW. This type of talk forces Cliff Mass to make several blog posts a year to vent his frustration. I am not Cliff Mass. I read posts from people who believe both sides. I'm more neutral.

 

I think in some cases it's a lack of education. Unfortunately some folks take the media at face value. 

[weather girl]

The hyperbole on this forum is unreal. This current warmth we're experiencing is not caused by AGW. Even Professor Cliff Mass is calling those out with this opinion. The insanity we see on this forum is like those who called superstorm Sandy one that was caused by AGW. There is nothing that happens in this world anymore without being linked to AGW. This type of talk forces Cliff Mass to make several blog posts a year to vent his frustration. I am not Cliff Mass. I read posts from people who believe both sides. I'm more neutral.

You call yourself neutral? Really? :-)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Corvallis down to 25 on the hour

[stuffradio]

You call yourself neutral? Really? :-)

I hope I am.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS has the rain arriving Thursday morning it looks like. 

[TT-SEA]

GFS has the rain arriving Thursday morning it looks like.

And gone for the weekend. And no snowstorm next week either.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12z GFS is a stinking pile of poo

[Jesse]

Kind of reminds me when I went clamming. Some big waves came in and my son said the tide is rising. I said, no... those were just big waves brought on by the wind. The water will gradually get lower for another hour. Don't confuse the effects from the wind with the effect of the moon.

So, another hour of global cooling?

 

Problem with this analogy is that the "tide" (global temperature) is indeed rising. The waves might vary in size but the tide is gradually marching closer to shore. That doesn't mean every wave will make it further inland than the one before, or even that every big wave is caused by the rising tide, but it makes it a heck of a lot more likely. Even with the ebb and flow there is an underlying trend.

[stuffradio]

So, another hour of global cooling?

 

Problem with this analogy is that the "tide" (global temperature) is indeed rising. The waves might vary in size but the tide is gradually marching closer to shore. That doesn't mean every wave will make it further inland than the one before, but it makes it a heck of a lot more likely.

I didn't say anything about global cooling.

[Jesse]

I didn't say anything about global cooling.

I didn't say you did.

 

That was in reference to Chris's tidal analogy.

[Jesse]

? You're over analyzing it.

Or maybe it was a poor analogy.

 

I get what you were trying to say, difference being the underlying trend in this case would support "bigger waves".

[westcoastexpat]

So, another hour of global cooling?

 

Problem with this analogy is that the "tide" (global temperature) is indeed rising. The waves might vary in size but the tide is gradually marching closer to shore. That doesn't mean every wave will make it further inland than the one before, or even that every big wave is caused by the rising tide, but it makes it a heck of a lot more likely. Even with the ebb and flow there is an underlying trend.

You're missing the point here. He's saying that immediate correlation and large scale causation ought to not be confused.

[westcoastexpat]

Second grade version - Wind effect doesn't equal lunar effect. Wind can mask tide but only for so long.

Amazing! Lol!

[westcoastexpat]

Or maybe it was a poor analogy.

I get what you were trying to say, difference being the underlying trend in this case would support "bigger waves".

It was a very good analogy.

[Jesse]

It was a very good analogy.

Aside from the fact that is isn't representative of the current relationship between weather and climate, it was absolutely brilliant.

[westcoastexpat]

Aside from the fact that is isn't representative of the current relationship between weather and climate, it was absolutely brilliant.

In his analogy, the wind = the weather and the tide = the climate

[Jesse]

In his analogy, the wind = the weather and the tide = the climate

You are good! Thanks for clearing that up.

[westcoastexpat]

You are good! Thanks for clearing that up.

No problem. NCAR has some really great free online courses on weather and climate for non-scientists. I can send you some of those of you'd like. It might help you understand climate and weather a bit better. A lot of students I've tutored really liked them.

[Deweydog]

No problem. NCAR has some really great free online courses on weather and climate for non-scientists. I can send you some of those of you'd like. It might help you understand climate and weather a bit better. A lot of students I've tutored really liked them.

He's already a teacher and/or a teacher-like substance.

[Jesse]

He's already a teacher and/or a teacher-like substance.

My modification to Chris's analogy was perfectly valid.

[TT-SEA]

Tulips are coming up nicely...

 

[Jesse]

He's already a teacher and/or a teacher-like substance.

Look up AmeriCorps. Should clear things up for you. I am a reading tutor at an Elementary school. The sub program I serve through is called Washington Reading Corps.

 

This position has been a godsend, couldn't have paid for college without it!

[Deweydog]

Look up AmeriCorps. Should clear things up for you. I am a reading tutor at an Elementary school. The sub program I serve is called Washington Reading Corps.

 

This position has been a godsend, couldn't have paid for college without it!

It's commendable. Nice work.

 

I volunteer at my son and daughter's schools but it in no way makes me a certified educator. It also doesn't affect the tides.

[Deweydog]

Tulips are coming up nicely...

 

Lame... A shitload have already completely bloomed around the SR-14 and I-5 interchange.

[Jesse]

It's commendable. Nice work.

 

I volunteer at my son and daughter's schools but it in no way makes me a certified educator. It also doesn't affect the tides.

Thank you. It's a great program.

 

I don't have a teaching degree, but three years doing 50 hours a week at an elementary school counts for something, as well as the tons of training I've been lucky enough to receive. Although as of now I am taking the science route in college anyway.

 

Highschool science teacher could be a future career choice for me. First I plan to spend some time working with NOAA or the USGS/USFS though. At least that's the dream.

[TT-SEA]

Lame... A shitload have already completely bloomed around the SR-14 and I-5 interchange.

 

 

Impressive.    But also impressive for our more northerly location at 1,100 feet in elevation to even have tulips up at all in February!

 

This is going to mess with Tulip Festival in Mount Vernon if everything is coming so early.    Particularly if we are repeatedly buried in snow in March!

[Deweydog]

Thank you. It's a great program.

 

I don't have a teaching degree, but three years doing 50 hours a week at an elementary school counts for something, as well as the tons of training I've been lucky enough to receive. Although as of now I am taking the science route in college anyway.

 

Highschool science teacher could be a future career choice for me. First I plan to spend some time working with NOAA or the USGS/USFS though. At least that's the dream.

I'm sure it's a great program, and it sounds like you're on a good path but ultimately credentials are a huge part of our societal infrastructure. The hippies can only take us so far...

[Deweydog]

Impressive. But also impressive for our more northerly location at 1,100 feet in elevation to even have tulips up at all in February!

 

This is going to mess with Tulip Festival in Mount Vernon if everything is coming so early. Particularly if we are repeatedly buried in snow in March!

Must be frustrating that he's not reacting to your pics.

[Deweydog]

32 at PDX this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

32 at PDX this morning.

 

Astounding!

[TT-SEA]

Must be frustrating that he's not reacting to your pics.

 

 

Who?  Jim?

 

He is on hiatus... probably not even checking in to read posts.

[stuffradio]

I believe the snowpack at Mt. Baker I can see from sort of at my house (I have to drive 5-10 minutes to see it since the trees are in the way at my house) looks to be less than normal. There are slivers of Mt. Baker that look bare, but they are tiny slivers. It is an unusual year though.

[Jesse]

I'm sure it's a great program, and it sounds like you're on a good path but ultimately credentials are a huge part of our societal infrastructure. The hippies can only take us so far...

Of course.

 

Still doesn't change the fact that the tide is rising.

[Phil]

Second grade version - Wind effect doesn't equal lunar effect. Wind can mask tide but only for so long.

Try this for an analogy: As far as our understanding of the gravitational force is concerned, the Moon's gravity is actually not sufficient enough to account for the observed tidal behavior. Let Jesse ponder over that one.

 

The ignorance in the climate change arena really irritates me. The debate mostly consists of blog-sourced hyperbole and/or political talking points. Most have forgotten the debate between Loschmidt and Maxwell..it was never settled. It is not brought up or taught to students, despite the fact that the physical experiments of recent decades seem to vindicate Loschmidt.

 

Is the tide really rising? Or are we sinking?

[Deweydog]

Of course.

 

Still doesn't change the fact that the tide is rising.

Some people just have a tendency to overreact to it when the water seems to be coming at them faster at times than others.