February 2015 PNW Discussion

[Deweydog]

Downsloping. Compressional heating.

 

Still, we have hit 60 an awful lot of times this month. It's notable!

Been a warm, quietish month.

[stuffradio]

I know you're being sarcastic. But the warmth in the west has been every bit as extreme as the cold in the east.

D**n global warming.

[epiceast]

00z Euro is probably best run we had all winter for mountain snow. Not quite zonal, but a pretty deep trough persists in pretty good places.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

D**n global warming

 

 

nationally this month will end up close to average. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I know you're being sarcastic. But the warmth in the west has been every bit as extreme as the cold in the east.

 

I totally agree. In many ways the warmth in the west is even more extreme. The Drudgeheads and warming deniers will hate the truth, but there it is. 

[Phil]

I know you're being sarcastic. But the warmth in the west has been every bit as extreme as the cold in the east.

I'd say this was equally extreme. Many cities east of the Mississippi have seen their coldest temps ever this late in the season. Records set back in the 1800s are being blown out of the water, back when UHI wasn't nearly as big of s deal as it is now..

 

We're lucky this pattern didn't occur a month earlier. Had this occurred in mid-January instead of late February, we'd be talking about cold on a truly dangerous level..

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'd say this is/was equally extreme. Many cities in the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/East Coast have seen their coldest temps ever this late in the season. Records set back in the 1800s are being blown out of the water, back when UHI wasn't nearly a as big a de as it is now.

 

We're lucky this pattern didn't occur a month earlierHad this occurred in mid-January instead of late February..we'd be talking about cold on a truly dangerous level.

 

I still maintain the western torch is the true story.

[Phil]

I still maintain the western torch is the true story.

Difference is you've had one year of that. We've spent two years in the icebox. In fact, we haven't seen a prolonged above average pattern in over 3 yrs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Difference is you've had one year of that. We haven't seen a prolonged above average pattern since 2012..

 

Yeah, but places back east aren't seeing month after month of all time record cold. Maybe February, but that is it. We are seeing month after month of all-time warmth. 

[Deweydog]

I still maintain the western torch is the true story.

Definitely having the biggest impact on daily life. Outdoor activities over the last couple weeks have been essentially impossible without wearing shoes and/or no shoes and local city/county/state warm air removal budgets have been obliterated.

[BLI snowman]

I'd say this was equally extreme. Many cities east of the Mississippi have seen their coldest temps ever this late in the season. Records set back in the 1800s are being blown out of the water, back when UHI wasn't nearly as big of s deal as it is now..

 

We're lucky this pattern didn't occur a month earlier. Had this occurred in mid-January instead of late February, we'd be talking about cold on a truly dangerous level..

 

And a lot of spots on the West Coast are seeing their warmest winter on record. Not sure that degree of anomaly is true for anyone on the East Coast right now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Definitely having the biggest impact on daily life. Outdoor activities over the last couple weeks have been essentially impossible without wearing shoes and/or no shoes and local city/county/state warm air removal budgets have been obliterated.

 

I know...Its been glorious.

[Phil]

Yeah, but places back east aren't seeing month after month of all time record cold. Maybe February, but that is it. We are seeing month after month of all-time warmth.

There's a point to be made there, most of these blasts have been quick-hitting due to the lack of downstream blocking, which is why the late 1970s were so brutal. But the intensity of the recent air mass is unrivaled, at least since the 1800s. I'm sure there was deeper cold during the Maunder, though.

[Phil]

And a lot of spots on the West Coast are seeing their warmest winter on record. Not sure that degree of anoamly is true for anyone on the East Coast right now.

The warm December we had will prevent that sort of anomaly for DJF.

 

If you remove December, a good chunk of the NE is within striking distance, which is incredible considering both the UHI component and the lack of polar/downstream blocking..all of the other record setters were primarily -NAM winters. These airmasses haven't had much staying power, but their intensity rivals anything seen since the early 19th century, based on ESRL reanalysis...

[HighlandExperience]

D**n global warming.

 

D**n global warming

 

This will be more common

 

http://media3.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2014_34/627566/pc-140820-california-drought-01_df9e66504eb531798626153aae549f70.nbcnews-ux-1040-700.jpg

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Coastal waters are looking relatively toasty, that's a pretty large area of ~3C (5F) anomalies off the coast. This is about as pronounced a February anomaly as I've ever seen in my casual observations. It'll be interesting to see how this carries into the summer when mixing is less a factor.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.2.19.2015.gif

[BLI snowman]

The warm December we had will prevent that sort of anomaly for DJF.

 

If you remove December, a good chunk of the NE is within striking distance, which is incredible considering both the UHI component and the lack of polar/downstream blocking..all of the other record setters were primarily -NAM winters. These airmasses haven't had much staying power, but their intensity rivals anything seen since the early 19th century, based on ESRL reanalysis...

 

Been very impressive back there, just a bit more so in our neck of the woods. 

[ShawniganLake]

This will be more common

 

http://media3.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2014_34/627566/pc-140820-california-drought-01_df9e66504eb531798626153aae549f70.nbcnews-ux-1040-700.jpg

Another year or two of this and the west will be going all "Mad Max"

[Jesse]

And a lot of spots on the West Coast are seeing their warmest winter on record. Not sure that degree of anomaly is true for anyone on the East Coast right now.

Careful, Dewey's not going to know whose side to not take.

[Jesse]

Yeah, but places back east aren't seeing month after month of all time record cold. Maybe February, but that is it. We are seeing month after month of all-time warmth.

You are just overreacting, that's all.

[richard mann]

Difference is you've had one year of that. We've spent two years in the icebox. In fact, we haven't seen a prolonged above average pattern in over 3 yrs.

 

And it's been pretty cold out east, too. Just sayin'.

[Jesse]

Been a warm, quietish month.

You gonna take back the meteorological concepts dig?

[BLI snowman]

Looks like our coldest airmass since late December or late November will arrive between the 2nd and 5th of March. I'm not even worrying about jinxing it since there's not much to jinx. But the models and ensembles have been deadly consistent with it.

[Front Ranger]

Anyone celebrating a dry, cool air mass right now is not really in tune with what we really need... mountain snow.

 

0z Euro delivers.

[Jesse]

Looks like our coldest airmass since late December or late November will arrive between the 2nd and 5th of March. I'm not even worrying about jinxing it since there's not much to jinx. But the models and ensembles have been deadly consistent with it.

Way to jinx it.

[BLI snowman]

Way to jinx it.

 

45 degree rain instead of 45 degree sunshine now. D**n.

[Front Ranger]

#2 or #3 is looking more likely IMO, although it'll be very close. It should finish right around that 1991 and 1958 territory. 

 

In a major upset for Jared, Olympia is also on track currently for their warmest. The heartbreak!

 

Ain't happening. Not with the weather the rest of the month.

[BLI snowman]

Ain't happening. Not with the weather the rest of the month.

 

These brutal 55 degree days! 

[ShawniganLake]

The station at Agassiz BC has been around since 1889. Pretty consistent data. Currently sitting at 49.1F for February. Previous warmest February is 46.8F. A new record is looking like a certainty. Not much if any UHI influence out there either.

[Front Ranger]

nationally this month will end up close to average. 

 

Doesn't get much more dramatic than an East/West split like this. The pattern over the final week of the month looks to be cooler than normal for 90% of the U.S., so probably won't end up looking quite this extreme by the end of the month.

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, but places back east aren't seeing month after month of all time record cold. Maybe February, but that is it. We are seeing month after month of all-time warmth.

 

 

That's...not factually true.

[Front Ranger]

These brutal 55 degree days! 

 

OLM is not setting a monthly record. That's the point.

[BLI snowman]

OLM is not setting a monthly record. That's the point.

 

2nd place at worst. They're way above #3 right now.

[Front Ranger]

2nd place at worst. They're way above #3 right now.

 

Eh, we'll see. Definitely not gonna be record warm. And could easily end up #3.

[westiztehbest]

Looking like a sizable jump in SOI reading.

 

 

And SSN have decreased somewhat.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 06z operational is pretty good. I'm going to continue to negative! Ensembles aren't great.

[Deweydog]

You gonna take back the meteorological concepts dig?

 

Your objection is overruled. 

[Jesse]

The 06z operational is pretty good. I'm going to continue to negative! Ensembles aren't great.

It's pretty good in the 10+ day range. Everything before then is pretty meh.

 

Chasing carrots is fun!

[stuffradio]

It's pretty good in the 10+ day range. Everything before then is pretty meh.

 

Chasing carrots is fun!

You chase carrots? I eat them.

[ShawniganLake]

A lot of below freezing temps on the Island this morning, 26-30F readings are pretty common in the sheltered locations.  25F in Campbell River.   Those poor misguided early flower and tree buds.  If one of those frigid long range operationals ever verified, there would likely be quite a bit of frost damage to certain trees and plants.