February 2015 PNW Discussion

[BLI snowman]

Obviously not!

 

Seems like 48 degree sunshine with NE flow is where the true excitement lies.   

 

If it's so unworthy of discussion, what's with your plethora of posts about it?

 

Move on and enjoy the warm sunshine then....

[Deweydog]

Obviously not!

 

Seems like 48 degree sunshine with NE flow is where the true excitement lies.

Well at least you guys considered it.

[TT-SEA]

Here you go Jared... something to track.

 

The 12Z GEM at 156 hours:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_156_0000.gif

 

00Z GEM at 144 hours:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

 

 

 

Seems to be trending eastward... in deference to the GFS.

[Front Ranger]

Here you go Jared... something to track.

 

The 12Z GEM at 156 hours:

 

 

 

00Z GEM at 144 hours:

 

 

Seems to be trending eastward... in deference to the GFS.

 

You're showing what I already commented on...the 0z GEM is further east than the 12z.

 

But there's also no doubt the GFS today has trended west towards the Euro/GEM. Kinda silly to ignore that.

[TT-SEA]

If it's so unworthy of discussion, what's with your plethora of posts about it?

 

Move on and enjoy the warm sunshine then....

 

 

Because its being discussed.   For whatever reason.

[Deweydog]

Quiet day coming up tomorrow...

[TT-SEA]

You're showing what I already commented on...the 0z GEM is further east than the 12z.

 

But there's also no doubt the GFS today has trended west towards the Euro/GEM. Kinda silly to ignore that.

 

 

I am not ignoring anything.   I think it will all end up too far east to matter at all... regardless of what model is showing what right now.    

[Front Ranger]

Because its being discussed.   For whatever reason.

 

Weather pattern. This is a weather forum. It's topical.

[Front Ranger]

I am not ignoring anything.   I think it will all end up too far east to matter at all... regardless of what model is showing what right now.    

 

Saying the GEM is caving in "deference" to the GFS is ignoring the trends in the GFS today.

[TT-SEA]

Quiet day coming up tomorrow...

 

 

Rain later in the day!   

[TT-SEA]

Saying the GEM is caving in "deference" to the GFS is ignoring the trends in the GFS today.

 

 

OK.    

[BLI snowman]

Weather pattern. This is a weather forum. It's topical.

 

Only sure things can be discussed here! And mountain snow! Otherwise, take it elsewhere folks!

[Deweydog]

***snowing in Boston***

[TT-SEA]

***snowing in Boston***

 

Seems to be sort of a bonus snowfall... farther west than any of the models showed.   

 

A minor 3-5 inches though.   Probably not noticeable.   

[Deweydog]

And Jesus people, all this teeth-gnashing about next week or whatever while a marine push is in progress RIGHT NOW!

[TT-SEA]

And Jesus people, all this teeth-gnashing about next week or whatever while a marine push is in progress RIGHT NOW!

 

 

I know... we are in the basement with the NOAA radio on.      

 

Finally an end to the brutal cold nights though.    

[luvssnow_spokane]

So you see no difference between tracking the upcoming pattern and the patterns available to track since late December? None at all?

 

Why does it bother you that I care about and track the weather in the PNW? Good lord...people are free to think what they want and care about what they want.

 

If all you want is mountain snowfall, great! But your endless, regurgitated wet blanket remarks get old. Why do you care if other people are actually interested in this pattern? Why do you always feel the need to downplay others interest?

point well taken.. let me clarify.. I have no problems with your enthusiasm but when any one comes up against you are just as quick to defend and wet blanket their opinion because they are not as enthusiastic as yours. Both opinions are valid and leave it at that. I think that this weather possible change is just dandy and have absolutely no problem with your posts. As you should have no problem with someone who contradicts your post like Tim has and others have. It's all good and I appoligize if I came across as putting a wet blanket on your posts but I honestly do not see much to be excited about here but it was not a put down toward you.

[Front Ranger]

I know... we are in the basement with the NOAA radio on.      

 

Sadly, thousands in the PNW are without basements/storm cellars. May God have mercy on their souls. 

[TT-SEA]

And I think we need to also focus on the cold over the weekend.   Someone mentioned the GFS has trended colder.  This could be pretty sweet... low to mid 50s.      Brrrrrrr. 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/wa_tsfc.120.0000.gif

[bainbridgekid]

Seems to be sort of a bonus snowfall... farther west than any of the models showed.   

 

A minor 3-5 inches though.   Probably not noticeable.   

Gets them even closer to their snowiest Winter ever though. They were a foot away a week ago.

 

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/02/16/boston-within-a-foot-of-snowiest-winter-in-citys-history/

[Front Ranger]

point well taken.. let me clarify.. I have no problems with your enthusiasm but when any one comes up against you are just as quick to defend and wet blanket their opinion because they are not as enthusiastic as yours. Both opinions are valid and leave it at that. I think that this weather possible change is just dandy and have absolutely no problem with your posts. As you should have no problem with someone who contradicts your post like Tim has and others have. It's all good and I appoligize if I came across as putting a wet blanket on your posts but I honestly do not see much to be excited about here but it was not a put down toward you.

 

Hey, I'm not taking it personal, I know you aren't just wet blanketing me...and I understand if you don't see any reason to be excited, but there is a difference between not being excited, and poo-pooing others who are just tracking the pattern and hoping it results in something interesting.

 

Sure, a March 1989 reference was thrown out tonight, but I don't think anyone is wetting their pants in anticipation of something like that actually occurring.

[Front Ranger]

And I think we need to also focus on the cold over the weekend.   Someone mentioned the GFS has trended colder.  This could be pretty sweet... low to mid 50s.      Brrrrrrr. 

 

Cause hour 120 sums up the whole weekend.

 

The 0z Tim is coming in noticeably more trollish!

[TT-SEA]

Total snowfall from Saturday - Tuesday... mountain snow problem solved.   Maybe 5-6 inches on the highest peaks.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/ww_snow72.168.0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

Cause hour 120 sums up the whole weekend.

 

The 0z Tim is coming in noticeably more trollish!

 

 

Also shows low 50s on Saturday.   

 

Sunny weekend... highs in the 50s.      That about sums it up.   

[TT-SEA]

Cause hour 120 sums up the whole weekend.

 

The 0z Tim is coming in noticeably more trollish!

 

 

Oh well.   I want lots of mountain snow.

[BLI snowman]

Hey, I'm not taking it personal, I know you aren't just wet blanketing me...and I understand if you don't see any reason to be excited, but there is a difference between not being excited, and poo-pooing others who are just tracking the pattern and hoping it results in something interesting.

 

Sure, a March 1989 reference was thrown out tonight, but I don't think anyone is wetting their pants in anticipation of something like that actually occurring.

 

I did. Had to change out of them late this afternoon after getting around to seeing the 12z Canadian. I honestly felt a little foolish after seeing the 00z eastward trend. 

[Deweydog]

Any bets on how Tim will react to the Euro?

[TT-SEA]

Any bets on how Tim will react to the Euro?

 

 

I think I am heading to bed.

 

My guess is that it will be frustratingly non-zonal.   

[bainbridgekid]

Also shows low 50s on Saturday.   

 

Sunny weekend... highs in the 50s.      That about sums it up.   

925mb temps do fall to a little below zero for us Saturday morning, so it is a cooler airmass than we've had in a while. Nothing impressive obviously though.

 

Sidenote, you can really tell how much stronger the sun is this time of year by following the 925mb temperature loop. 925mb temps swing wildly from the morning to the afternoon whereas a month ago they were fairly stable.

 

For example, Saturday morning there is tons of cold air everywhere East of the Cascades and in all of BC:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.84.0000.gif

Then 12 hours later, it is all gone in the afternoon sunshine:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.96.0000.gifBut the cold reemerges the next night:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.108.0000.gif

Then a huge warmup again that afternoon. Some parts of BC see more than a 20 degree warmup in 12 hours.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.120.0000.gif

[Front Ranger]

I did. Had to change out of them late this afternoon after getting around to seeing the 12z Canadian. I honestly felt a little foolish after seeing the 00z eastward trend. 

 

It happens. Not to Tim, though. His pants remain unsoiled, like the upgraded GFS.

[TT-SEA]

925mb temps do fall to a little below zero for us Saturday morning, so it is a cooler airmass than we've had in a while. Nothing impressive obviously though.

 

Sidenote, you can really tell how much stronger the sun is this time of year by following the 925mb temperature loop. 925mb temps swing wildly from the morning to the afternoon whereas a month ago they were fairly stable.

 

 

 

 

I was just going to mention that same thing.    

[Front Ranger]

Also shows low 50s on Saturday.   

 

Sunny weekend... highs in the 50s.      That about sums it up.   

 

Those cold lows will continue to hurt early-blooming plants and global warming, though.

[TT-SEA]

Those cold lows will continue to hurt early-blooming plants and global warming, though.

 

 

i doubt it will even get below freezing here.    A little wind and it will stay up around 40.

[Front Ranger]

i doubt it will even get below freezing here.    A little wind and it will stay up around 40.

 

Ah. More global warming in your neck of the woods then.

[Front Ranger]

0z Euro coming in a little further east. Trend today has been the models moving towards some sort of compromise...cooler than what the GFS had been showing, drier than what the Euro/GEM had been showing. 

 

But still time for more shifts, of course.

[TT-SEA]

Nice bonus on the 00Z ECMWF... it looked rainy later in the week but now it shows dry weather on Thursday and Friday afternoons around Seattle and even out here with the rain focused more on the coast and in OR.

 

And totally sunny by Saturday morning setting up a nice weekend.

[richard mann]

And I think we need to also focus on the cold over the weekend. Someone mentioned the GFS has trended colder. This could be pretty sweet... low to mid 50s.      Brrrrrrr.

Ya know what Tim. (?)

 

"Jam" your sarcasm.

 

.. Self absorbed b*thches, think their sarcasm is interesting to others. (Refute the idea.)

 

From now on, unless I see an "alert" attached to any sarcasm you "drop" up, I'm pointing to it as "messed up".

[Phil]

This pattern change is being overplayed because we're missing the elephant in the room. I suspect we'll be back in a +PNA by the middle portion of March..

 

Same story all winter..we get a burp of hi-freq WPAC forcing superimposed on underlying QBO/ENSO driven mass transport.

 

What results is repetitive NPAC wave-breaking, and a tank in the EPO along with an attempted bombardment of the PV. The initial PNA response cannot sustain on its own given the pull of the forementioned underlying inertial forcings unless our partner in crime (the dominant, fully coupled PV) is compromised. Why?

 

The PV is dominating high latitude mass transport, export-returns, and wave guidance. It's fully coupled to the NAM and the Hudson Bay vortex. The PV works like a giant tornado with multiple vortices at the base. Destroy the vortex aloft, you stop both the development and subsequent poleward progression of the vortices below. Hence you tank the NAM, reverse the mass transport gradients, and pass the hot-potato into the hands of the higher frequency tropical forcings which will then begin battle with the lower frequency, ENSO dominated forcings/resonances. That's how you change a low frequency pattern.

 

Look at January 2013. Before the SSW/mass transport breakdown that occurred around the turn of that New Year, we'd been in a persistent regimen since February of 2011, essentily the opposite of the one we're in now. We all know how that changed, with a total transition in the span of a few weeks. The dominant circulations had done a 180 by January 20th.

 

We need to break down the PV before we're going to get a true, large scale pattern change. Only then will the ENSO trend back negative, along with the PNA and PDO..

[Jesse]

Mild lows the next few mornings should clench warmest Feb on record for PDX and other locations.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z ensembles really take a dump on our hopes and dreams