March 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Maxim]

no potential.

[Maxim]

The GFS has been overestimating the cold for the past 2 weeks. Pretty laughable to buy into anything it's showing at this point.

[clintbeed1993]

Hoping we get some moisture in Nebraska soon.  Places west of me are way worse off and the drought is creeping back in.  I am an avid morel mushroom hunter and we really need a good soaking rain to get the season started!

[Niko]

NYC braces for yet another snowstorm for Friday with accumulating snows becoming more likely now. Looking like 4-7inches could be possible.

[Niko]

Still snowing pretty well there. 

 

New England near 100% covered in snow still. The longer it lasts, the higher the flood potential.

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/Northeast/nsm_depth/201503/nsm_depth_2015031705_Northeast.jpg

 

Barely cracking 40° today here.

They have brutal winters up there. Luckily, we live in a milder climate.

 

Flooding there will definitely be an issue this upcoming Spring. Hopefully, it does not all melt at once.

[Tom]

Massive warming at 10mb over the pole thru the next 10 days.  Should have implications as we close out March and open April.  The cold part of the LRC isn't too far away.  I think the models will pick up on the this.  CVSv2 showing the cooling beginning next week into the following. 

 

JMA Weeklies come out later tonight...

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Massive warming at 10mb over the pole thru the next 10 days.  Should have implications as we close out March and open April.  The cold part of the LRC isn't too far away.  I think the models will pick up on the this.  CVSv2 showing the cooling beginning next week into the following. 

 

JMA Weeklies come out later tonight...

 

You're the only one who's going to enjoy it I think.

[Grizzcoat]

You're the only one who's going to enjoy it I think.

Make that two.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Make that two.

 

You're not going to be getting the snow you want though, I think it will pass just to your north and east.

[gosaints]

You're not going to be getting the snow you want though, I think it will pass just to your north and east.

Yep and its a sliver of a stripe anyways.

[gosaints]

If one keeps saying its gonna get cold eventually they have to verify.  If it werent for the first couple days of march we would be a complete torch so far.  Either way the set up has been as expected much cooler the further east you go.  There is going to be a cool down thats for sure but record breaking as was proclaimed?  I have my doubts.  

 

The cold and snowy is most likely going down in flames though someplace will score a 50 mile wide swath of snow in a few days.

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png

[Maxim]

The warmth has been more impressive this year than the cold. 90 degrees in Nebraska and Iowa in mid March? D**n...

[WildWisconsinWeather]

The warmth has been more impressive this year than the cold. 90 degrees in Nebraska and Iowa in mid March? D**n...

 

Actually they have been equally impressive this year and the cold to this point has been longer lasting (all of February).  That said, the Plains have seen more impressive warmth than impressive cold, and obviously they need rain.  Looks like most of our subforum has a chance to see some next week.

[gosaints]

Actually they have been equally impressive this year and the cold to this point has been longer lasting (all of February).  That said, the Plains have seen more impressive warmth than impressive cold, and obviously they need rain.  Looks like most of our subforum has a chance to see some next week.

Ya the cold overall has definetly been more impressive overall.  Especially the further east you go.  The lack of snow to go with the cold has probably been the most impressive.

[Tom]

You're the only one who's going to enjoy it I think.

Rain or shine, snow or cold...I enjoy all aspects of the weather and what nature can bring.  You can't control it (unless your the gov't), embrace it, enjoy what it delivers in any given time of the year.

 

FWIW, I posted comments about the warm phase the LRC would bring this month and the cold.  The warm phase was extremely warm the farther west you went and I commented how the Euro Ensembles saw the "pull back" from Winter between the 10th-20th near the Lakes.  Forecasting the weather is not a exact science so being 100% accurate ain't gonna happen.  The cold phase will come back and I'd be shocked if it doesn't bring some significant cooling for the time of year.

[gosaints]

Another example how the models have been overdoing the cold in the long range.  The EURO had -20 and lower 850's in michigan for today.  In reality it was way off.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015031912/namconus_T850_us_3.png

[Tom]

JMA Weeklies came in and they have backed off of the significantly colder look from last weeks run near the Lakes but still below normal for Day 1-9.  The pattern looks similar Week #2 and Week's 3 & 4.

 

[Tom]

12z Euro paints a 6-8" band from MSP to LaCrosse for Sun/Mon system...1-3" for WI/N IL.  Pretty potent little wave showing up.
 

Edit: Mainly falls overnight Sunday so accumulations would be likely mainly on grassy surfaces after all the warmth.  Maybe 3-5" is a good idea within the heaviest part of the band.  12z GGEM also pretty similar to the Euro.

[Tom]

NYC braces for yet another snowstorm for Friday with accumulating snows becoming more likely now. Looking like 4-7inches could be possible.

Saw this pic near Halifax...just amazing amounts of snow up that way...

 

[Tom]

CPC Outlook for April:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off_temp_small.gif

 

 

3 Month Outlook for Apr/May/Jun...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp_small.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp_small.gif

[Tom]

Woah, 12z Euro Ensembles carve out a monster trough near the Lakes/East Week 2.  Fits with the LRC/CFSv2....

[Niko]

Saw this pic near Halifax...just amazing amounts of snow up that way...

 

Incredible! The snowpack is so deep. That must be at least 6ft or so.

[Tom]

The cold phase of the LRC is really starting to show up on the models as March closes out.  A little later than I had expected it to hit.  Nonetheless, it's coming.  The latest Euro Weeklies tonight agree as well.  The Euro Control is outrageously cold Marc 31st - April 4th.  

[Tom]

NOAA has a warm Summer in the forecast for much of the nation...the bread basket of the nation may be near neutral where more moisture should be available.

[gosaints]

Does LRC claim to predict when storms are to hit?

[Tom]

Does LRC claim to predict when storms are to hit?

It provides a general idea of a storm track in the Fall/Winter months but then there are seasonal variations that you have to try and figure out as you head deeper into Spring/Summer as the jet weakens and lifts north.

[Maxim]

The LRC seems useless in the Summer.

[Tom]

The LRC seems useless in the Summer.

Not necessarily, it can give you a general idea of when a sharp cold front can spark severe weather, long wave trough's/ridges, heat waves in the Summer, so it is quite useful if you want to use the LRC and predict future weather patterns.

[Money]

lol

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015032012/gem_asnow_us_40.png

[Maxim]

what a huge bust in temps today. was supposed to be close to 60, struggling to reach 50 now.

[Tom]

There are going to be a lot of unhappy people hoping for warmth over the next 2 weeks....Winter's last stance on the way.  12z Euro Ensemble 5 day means below...

 

CPC Agrees....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[gosaints]

And models have started to modify mid long range cold. What a surprise.

[Seahawkfan]

And models have started to modify mid long range cold. What a surprise.

I'm in total disbelief color me shocked

[Tom]

12z Euro keeps the real chill near the Lakes early next week and towards next Fri/Sat.  It delivers a cold HP on Friday where temps don't break 30F for parts of WI/MI/N IL.

[gosaints]

Aside from about 24 hours the temperature departures at 850 are nothing special at all

[Tom]

WWA's posted for MSP/LaCrosse...

 

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
333 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015

...WINTER RETURNS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.AN EARLY SPRING SNOW STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY
FALL AS RAIN OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX SUNDAY MORNING AND CHANGE OVER
TO ALL SNOW LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST SNOW
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. TO THE NORTH OF
THIS HEAVIEST BAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHEAST IOWA WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. PERIODS OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT ITS OCCURRENCE IS LESS CERTAIN.
TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS.

IAZ010-011-MNZ096-WIZ041-053>055-061-220445-
/O.NEW.KARX.WW.Y.0011.150322T2000Z-150323T1200Z/
WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-HOUSTON-LA CROSSE-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-
GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...WAUKON...LA CROSSE...
VIROQUA...PRAIRIE DU CHIEN...RICHLAND CENTER...PLATTEVILLE
333 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY
TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY.

* EXPECT RAIN OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY EVENING. MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AS THE SNOW ENDS...SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

* THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM SUNDAY AND
1 AM MONDAY.

* LOOK FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. IF
FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPS...A GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE.

* PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING
FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.

[Tom]

And models have started to modify mid long range cold. What a surprise.

Back and forth, but the cold will win for the last time before we see Spring come back in mid April.  Euro Ensembles still in agreement.  The cold and warm cycles of the LRC have been both extreme in their own ways.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

 

How about this?  Would even take the moisture as rain at this point.  I don't even get excited anymore, just nice to look at.

 

 

[Geos]

That a generous amount of snow to fall in the next 16 days!

 

Today was not mild like the forecast said. NE winds locked in early today here. Hovered around 40° for most of the day - was sunny though after 11am.

[Maxim]

That a generous amount of snow to fall in the next 16 days!

 

Today was not mild like the forecast said. NE winds locked in early today here. Hovered around 40° for most of the day - was sunny though after 11am.

too bad it won't verify though