March 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Actually Tom, this is the Science Teacher in me talking, you mean the spring (Vernal) Equinox. The Solstices occur in June and December!! 

Yup, I actually changed that and I realized it when I read it to myself again and said, wait, that doesn't sound right?  LOL

 

Better have snowpack to do that

Right, and the storm that could do that would be the one that I'm looking to develop during the 17th-19th period.  We'll see.

[CentralNebWeather]

We have a teacher in our school that always talks about the old farmers techniques of predicting weather.  He said his mother in law has predicted now for several months that using the "fog days" and counting 90 days, I have to admit, I don't understand all of it, that we will have stormy weather somewhere close to Central Nebraska from March 17-19.  (doesn't always have to be snowstorms, as she will claim)

 

Tom, as I saw you typed March 17-19, I had to laugh thinking maybe her method of "predicting weather" might actually work this time.  Just some fun stuff and again I don't claim to understand or believe in it, I just keep hearing him discuss these dates with others.

 

Does anyone else ever hear old farmers techniques about weather predictions?  Have heard some talk about how loud the locusts were in the trees among other.

[Money]

12z euro still showing that low developing on OK at HR 240 with -10 850 mb temps across MN/WI

[Tom]

12z euro still showing that low developing on OK at HR 240 with -10 850 mb temps across MN/WI

Put a nice Banana HP to the north and someone will get a snowstorm out of this storm system if it holds on.  Euro still showing snow developing in NE.

[Hawkeye]

The GFS/GEM/UK/Euro are still handling the late week/weekend digging low differently.  The UK and Euro scoot the shortwave more eastward and just clip the lakes on the way to the northeast US.  The GFS is more robust with the digging, bringing sub-zero 850 temps across eastern Iowa.  The GEM digs the shortwave straight south and cuts it off over Iowa.

 

The latest Euro has much of Iowa in the 60s for the next seven days.  The coolest 21z temp in CR is 59 Wednesday(this was originally supposed to be the warmest day).

[gabel23]

If you look at the different cold cycles of the LRC this season, since cycle #1 it has set record low temps in various areas in the lower 48.  Now, just think about that for a second and then add to the fact that we are seeing hemispheric blocking developing mid month that would make sense to last through the end of the month given the seasonal weakening of the jet.  Take both of these ideas together and record late season cold is on the table.  Where does the really cold air set up is the million dollar question?

 

Tell me Tom, what is the LRC showing for the east coast around March 20-25? I have a friend of mine who will be taking his class to Washington DC and would like to give him a forecast of what it will be like then. You know how to read the LRC better than I do so anything you can give me would be great! Thanks! 

[gosaints]

CFS v2 still not digging anything overly cold actually back to normal in weeks 3 and 4 

[East Dubzz]

So when is the first severe storm outbreak?

[WBadgersW]

Your first mistake was listening to JB. I hope you're just trolling, but if not, stop buying into everything you hear and learn the weather yourself.

D**n... Why so harsh?

[Tom]

Tell me Tom, what is the LRC showing for the east coast around March 20-25? I have a friend of mine who will be taking his class to Washington DC and would like to give him a forecast of what it will be like then. You know how to read the LRC better than I do so anything you can give me would be great! Thanks! 

The weather looks stormy/wet during this period.

[Tom]

12z Euro...Day 9, 11, 15 850's....get colder and wilder each run...Winter ain't over by a long shot...

 

For those who like Spring Snows, chances are you will see more snow in the central CONUS.  12z Euro Ensembles looking snowier Week 1-2 from the Plains/Lakes.  I'll go out on a limb and say some places in our region may see day time highs in the 20's with snow on the ground in late March.  Pretty remarkable pattern shaping up and something that hasn't happened in decades.  

 

12z Euro Control seeing the I-80 snowstorm during the time frame I mentioned...who wants a Spring Blizzard repeat???  That would be pretty cool to see the same SB system cycle through and deliver another Beast.

[Tom]

So when is the first severe storm outbreak?

I'd say not till late April when the warm phase of the LRC kicks back in....another very slow start to severe wx season this year and will continue.  That pattern ain't ripe yet for that to happen.  

 

Edit: Southern Plains have the best shot at seeing Severe WX over the next 4 weeks or so...

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/ptorngraph_big(1).png

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/torgraph_big__1_(3).png

[WildWisconsinWeather]

If you look at the different cold cycles of the LRC this season, since cycle #1 it has set record low temps in various areas in the lower 48.  Now, just think about that for a second and then add to the fact that we are seeing hemispheric blocking developing mid month that would make sense to last through the end of the month given the seasonal weakening of the jet.  Take both of these ideas together and record late season cold is on the table.  Where does the really cold air set up is the million dollar question?

 

Without any meaningful snow cover, though, it's pretty unlikely to see a lot of record lows as there are other years when there was snow cover.  You're probably going to claim we're likely to see a big storm to create some more snowcover, but I'd be taking a cautious approach.

[Tom]

Without any meaningful snow cover, though, it's pretty unlikely to see a lot of record lows as there are other years when there was snow cover.  You're probably going to claim we're likely to see a big storm to create some more snowcover, but I'd be taking a cautious approach.

How soon we forget the Summer Time PV invasion in mid July last year that produced record low temps.  You don't need a snow cover to have record low temps or record low highs.

 

http://mashable.com/2014/07/10/polar-vortex-redux-redux-record-cold-july-weather-on-the-way/

 

That being said, of course this type of cold coming will be produced by a different atmospheric set up than what happened last year.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

How soon we forget the Summer Time PV invasion in mid July last year that produced record low temps.  You don't need a snow cover to have record low temps or record low highs.

 

http://mashable.com/2014/07/10/polar-vortex-redux-redux-record-cold-july-weather-on-the-way/

 

That being said, of course this type of cold coming will be produced by a different atmospheric set up than what happened last year.

 

Please reread my post.  I said because March frequently has years with some decent snow on the ground, we will need a semblance of a snowpack most likely for record lows.  Of course July you don't need a snowpack, because snow never occurs in July.

[gosaints]

If we don't get snow around here in march and or April around here I am surprised. Not sure how the July temp comparisons make sense. I won't argue against cold I think it will of course get cold again around here but again highs in the 20s aren't that odd especially with a snow cover

[Tom]

What I was saying is, you don't necessarily need a snow cover to see record low temps.  Obviously snow in March/April is not a rare thing to see but the amount of sustained colder weather coming is pretty rare to see.  Not saying you will see a week straight of high temps in the 20's.  This time of year snow comes and goes.  However, the type of blocking coming may keep the colder air locked in for a while.  That is why I'm going to enjoy the 50's and possible 60's coming over the next week.

[Tom]

Nature aligning just right to unload late season arctic air into the lower 48.  18z GFS Ensembles almost identical to the 12z Euro.  Classic "horse shoe" block over the top.  Day 9, 11, 15 show no mercy for warm weather fans....it will be time to go out west and enjoy the West Coast ridge.

[Tom]

The latest Euro Weeklies that just came in and don't look pretty from Day 10 on through the first week in April.  A stretch of 18-21 days below normal near the Lakes.  The Plains are not out of the woods as well.  Pattern looks chilly overall for a large area in the central CONUS for the back half of March.

[gosaints]

What I was saying is, you don't necessarily need a snow cover to see record low temps. Obviously snow in March/April is not a rare thing to see but the amount of sustained colder weather coming is pretty rare to see. Not saying you will see a week straight of high temps in the 20's. This time of year snow comes and goes. However, the type of blocking coming may keep the colder air locked in for a while. That is why I'm going to enjoy the 50's and possible 60's coming over the next week.

Record lows in march will be tough without a snow cover. Of course we get record lows in July without snow cover. There is never snow cover in July. Meanwhile we could be close to 30 degrees above normal for a high tomorrow.

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015031000/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

[gosaints]

Nice

 

THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT MID AND
UPPER 50S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND FROM THE UPPER 50S /IN AREAS
WHERE THERE IS STILL SNOW COVER/ TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTED WELL BY SIMILAR 925 MB TEMPERATURES IN
MARCH OF 2012.

 

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO

THE 8 TO 12C RANGE. COMPARING THESE TEMPERATURES TO MARCH OF
2012...THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. WITH A DRY AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...WE MAY EVEN MIX DEEPER THAN
925 MB. IF THAT IS THE CASE...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE
WARM ENOUGH YET. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD
POTENTIALLY APPROACH 70 DEGREES. THE LAST TIME IT REACHED
70 DEGREES WAS OCTOBER 16TH AT ROCHESTER MN AND OCTOBER 27TH AT
LA CROSSE WI.

[james1976]

Everyday the temps get bumped up. Now they are talking upper 60s.

[Tom]

Need to start getting some moisture in the Upper Midwest and in the Plains...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drmon_small.gif

[gosaints]

Need to start getting some moisture in the Upper Midwest and in the Plains...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drmon_small.gif

Yep could have some fire weather early next week

[Geos]

Forecasted high was slashed to 44*. Cloudy, but at least the fog has lifted now.

 

I wouldn't have thought any areas east of the Mississippi River would be in drought at this point. One more moisture laden storm should do it for those D0 areas.

[CentralNebWeather]

Already fire weather watches here.  I keep mentioning how dry the winter has been.  Lots of blowing dust at construction sites.  Farmers that I talk with are already getting concerned if this pattern doesn't flip could be some problems this summer.

[SE Wisconsin]

Need to start getting some moisture in the Upper Midwest and in the Plains...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drmon_small.gif

I'm a little concerned about this summer for the upper Midwest.  Except for the Super Bowl storm, it's been pretty dry around here.  Hopefully, the return of warmth and moisture in the spring will produce some significant rains in April, May and early June.  If not, I'm afraid we might be looking at a summer that's predominantly hot and dry.

[gosaints]

GFS 0 precip next 10 days... what a stretch or boredom+

 

Make that 384 hours

[Hawkeye]

Everyday the temps get bumped up. Now they are talking upper 60s.

 

KWWL finally caved and threw out their ridiculous forecast of 40s all week.  I still have no idea what they were thinking with that.

[Tom]

The Euro really busted on the pattern evolving next week Monday.  Each day since last Saturday it corrected the trough coming down out of Canada faster.  Forecast from this past Saturday for same time frame on today's run.  GFS did better believe it or not.

[Tom]

12z Euro...Sunday looks to be great in the Plains/Midwest...western Lakes, maybe...sharp cold front hits Monday..

[gosaints]

No model has been good. GFS has been terrible in the short range.  I dont trust anything outside of 180 hours.  In the meantime this will melt some canadian snowhttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015031012/ecmwf_T850a_us_6.png

[SE Wisconsin]

How this warm spell has over-performed has really surprised me.  I was planning to head to the Northwoods in WI later this week to get in some late season cross-country skiing.  As of early last week I recall forecast temps were only supposed to be in the mid 30's or so.  Right now, it's in the mid 50's up there!  Needless to say I'm postponing my trip.  Hopefully things cool down up there next week and they even get a little more snow.

[james1976]

KWWL finally caved and threw out their ridiculous forecast of 40s all week.  I still have no idea what they were thinking with that.

That was Eileen's forecast. Has she ever been accurate?

[gosaints]

GEFS and CFS still not buying into any crazy cold.....

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201503/nsm_depth_2015031005_National.jpg

 

Kiss that minnesota snow goodbye tomorrow

[gosaints]

EURO is dominating on surface temps today in minnesota

[Grizzcoat]

I just returned from an ice fishing/ winter camping trip from the Arrowhead of MN. I assure you-- with temps averaging near 32F for the next week in the Arrowhead  -- the 3' of snow that is in the woods is not going anywhere fast. I have another trip in 2 weeks that I have no issues about-- in fact it will likely be much colder then then it was this past wkend.

[gosaints]

I just returned from an ice fishing/ winter camping trip from the Arrowhead of MN. I assure you-- with temps averaging near 32F for the next week in the Arrowhead -- the 3' of snow that is in the woods is not going anywhere fast. I have another trip in 2 weeks that I have no issues about-- in fact it will likely be much colder then then it was this past wkend.

I should of said aside from a sliver along lake superior....

[Geos]

Temperature recovered nicely this afternoon. Up to 50°.