Maxim Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 obviously a low ratio event Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/ensembles/Plumes.html MREF plumes. Came across this last night had never seen them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 obviously a low ratio eventRelatively low ratio even on the nothern side of the band as well. Still think we see some dramatic models swings with this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 Relatively low ratio even on the nothern side of the band as well. Still think we see some dramatic models swings with thisreally not sure what to think about this one for my area. though I am leaning more toward some front end snow to start, then changing to all rain later in the day on tuesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 really not sure what to think about this one for my area. though I am leaning more toward some front end snow to start, then changing to all rain later in the day on tuesday.Where is libertyville? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 Lots of strung out garbage on some of the ensembles members. Not buying any good solution until some of those disapear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 Where is libertyville?About 40 miles or so north of downtown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 About 40 miles or so north of downtown.Definely not of the game. South trend has seem to of started... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 Yuck GFS definitely south. Not looking good for here around Omaha on the first wave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 A bit stronger and a tad north so far through 93 compared to 6z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 Pretty comparable to 6z. 1 mb stronger and maybe 20 miles NW through 99. Tons of precip breaking out in IA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 Not bad. 6-10 from N. IA/S. MN into most of WI/N. MI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 Not sure why Accu-weather has SEMI in the 4-8inch category. I think it is a bit too much. I am thinking somewhere between 3-6inches seems more likely. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 Not bad. 6-10 from N. IA/S. MN into most of WI/N. MISeems like 10 is probably the high as this thing could go as modeled. Need that northern stream to slow. That hasnt happened in 2 years though. You of course dont want that probably Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 Still painting 0.38 6Z GFS What will the Snow ratios be?The southern end looks low, but up towards N IA/WI temps are in the mid 20's so ratios would be decent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 The trend this winter has been for the n. stream to dig more than modeled as we get closer to the event. Wouldn't be surprised if that happened again and this thing trended stronger/NW than progged. MN is in a good spot for this one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 verbatim GFS is probably 6-8 high end Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 verbatim GFS is probably 6-8 high end no its not Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 no its not what kind of ratios are you accounting for? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 I'm using IW maps which takes in effect ratios. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 12z GFS...James/GoSaints/Money/Madtown/Snowshoe special...MKE close call... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 12z GFS...James/GoSaints/Money/Madtown/Snowshoe special...MKE close call...7-8 With this map But wow not much room for any shift in any direction West 50 100 mile shift west be fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 I'm using IW maps which takes in effect ratiosIts gonna be cement for the most part Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 I am chopped liver? Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 UKIE 96 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif 120 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 UKIE 96 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif 120 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gifMust be a straight up bowling ball Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 From Accu-Weather: http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2015/650x366_02270953_hd25.jpg The heaviest snow will extend northeastward from Kansas City to an area north of St. Louis and Indianapolis to near Chicago and Detroit, where a half of a foot is possible Saturday night into Sunday. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 From Accu-Weather: http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2015/650x366_02270953_hd25.jpgUmmm ya Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 That's for the 1st wave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 THE BIGGER DEAL APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHTAS PART OF THE 4 CORNERS TROUGH SPLITS OFF AND PROPAGATESNORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORT WAVETROUGH LEADS TO A DEEPER SURFACE/LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH WILLBE AIDED BE A DEEPENING OF THE LARGER WAVE TROUGH THAT FORMS FROMSOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US. FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNALFROM THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM WITH BRINGING THE 850MB LOW THROUGHIOWA WITH THE WARM LAYER NOSING UP INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THISCOULD LEAD TO SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES WITH THE WARM LAYERON THE GFS GOING UP TO AROUND +1 OR +2 MEANING THE MAINCHANGEOVER WOULD LIKELY BE TO SLEET/SNOW PELLETS.HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION LOOKSLIKE IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO STAY ALL SNOW. THE GFS IS DEEPERWITH THE SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO THE ECMWF THOUGH BOTH BRING UP TOA HALF INCH OF QPF THROUGH WITH SNOW RATIOS LIKELY ON THE LOWERSIDE DUE TO THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN. A LOT CAN CHANGE BUT THISSYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR TRENDS.NWS LaCrosse Might need to take a vacation day next Tuesday Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 Umm That's for the 1st wave I know... what guidance supports that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 GGEM not very exciting. Very wierd solution Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 12z GFS snowfall. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 100 mile shift northwest would be nice. But not going to happen. What is Winterfreak? He's been wanting snow all winter? He'll fair better than most of us on this forum with this first wave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 Ensembles still all over. Some really warm cutters some blah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 first wave basically misses me now. the second wave is staying consistent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 Ensembles still all over. Some really warm cutters some blah Seems consistent to me? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f102.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 Ya they have been slow to load. Right away it showed 2 flat solutions and one wound up. Overall they seem more amped NW or the OP? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 Definely not of the game. South trend has seem to of started...nah, I think I'm out of it for now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 27, 2015 Report Share Posted February 27, 2015 12z euro: 993.5 in E. CO at HR 96 850 mb line is from Central Iowa just south of DBQ and then SE south of Chicago 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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