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3/1 - 3/3 Spring Storm Potential


Tom

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Relatively low ratio even on the nothern side of the band as well. Still think we see some dramatic models swings with this

really not sure what to think about this one for my area. though I am leaning more toward some front end snow to start, then changing to all rain later in the day on tuesday.

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Not sure why Accu-weather has SEMI in the 4-8inch category. I think it is a bit too much. I am thinking somewhere between 3-6inches seems more likely.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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From Accu-Weather:

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2015/650x366_02270953_hd25.jpg

 

The heaviest snow will extend northeastward from Kansas City to an area north of St. Louis and Indianapolis to near Chicago and Detroit, where a half of a foot is possible Saturday night into Sunday.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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THE BIGGER DEAL APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT

AS PART OF THE 4 CORNERS TROUGH SPLITS OFF AND PROPAGATES

NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORT WAVE

TROUGH LEADS TO A DEEPER SURFACE/LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH WILL

BE AIDED BE A DEEPENING OF THE LARGER WAVE TROUGH THAT FORMS FROM

SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US. FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL

FROM THE 27.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM WITH BRINGING THE 850MB LOW THROUGH

IOWA WITH THE WARM LAYER NOSING UP INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS

COULD LEAD TO SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES WITH THE WARM LAYER

ON THE GFS GOING UP TO AROUND +1 OR +2 MEANING THE MAIN

CHANGEOVER WOULD LIKELY BE TO SLEET/SNOW PELLETS.

HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION LOOKS

LIKE IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO STAY ALL SNOW. THE GFS IS DEEPER

WITH THE SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO THE ECMWF THOUGH BOTH BRING UP TO

A HALF INCH OF QPF THROUGH WITH SNOW RATIOS LIKELY ON THE LOWER

SIDE DUE TO THE WARMER AIR MOVING IN. A LOT CAN CHANGE BUT THIS

SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR TRENDS.

NWS LaCrosse

 

Might need to take a vacation day next Tuesday

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