3/1 - 3/3 Spring Storm Potential

[gosaints]

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/595_100.gif

[gosaints]

Most of the GFS emsembles show glorified frontal passages

[Tom]

12z Euro is farther north with the 1st wave...hits S WI/S MI now...

[Money]

Wouldn't surprise me to see it keep trending back N and stronger. Remember, models tend to lose a storm in the medium range only to bring it back as we get closer and this is still 96+ hours out

[Money]

How much of that is from the clipper though?

[winterfreak]

Nice little weenie band there.

[Tom]

How much of that is from the clipper though?

In WI, nothing really from the Clipper...

[Money]

2nd system developing at HR 144. 

[Tom]

12z Euro...2nd wave...

[jcwxguy]

so many changes with the models the last 24hrs 

[Money]

GFS Ensembles: 1st wave:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPCN72NE_12z/f126.gif

[Tom]

12z Euro...pretty much all snow from I'd say Peoria, IL on north...

[gosaints]

hope this one breaks the shearing trend.

[Seahawkfan]

Wow If the above trend happens we could have some eye opening snow totals by this time next week.

[NEJeremy]

so many changes with the models the last 24hrs 

and we only have about 6 more days for the 2nd wave to move through. This thread should be about 32 pages by the time the storm moves through

[winterfreak]

Someone is going to see a major ice storm. Hope it's not me. All too familiar sight around these areas.

[Money]

NAM shows a pretty healthy 1st wave towards the end of its run

[Iowawx]

GFS has rain for the 2nd storm. Most of the snow is in Minnesota.

[ToastedRavs]

GFS has rain for the 2nd storm. Most of the snow is in Minnesota.

 

Not sure what you are looking at.  This is what I got for DSM for the 12z GFS:

MON 18Z 02-MAR  -8.8    -9.5    1036      85      45    0.00     560     533    TUE 00Z 03-MAR  -8.9    -7.1    1029      91      83    0.00     559     536    TUE 06Z 03-MAR  -8.8    -3.5    1023      96      99    0.13     556     538    TUE 12Z 03-MAR  -7.6    -0.7    1015      95     100    0.23     550     538    TUE 18Z 03-MAR  -3.5    -1.1    1010      95      99    0.05     545     536    WED 00Z 04-MAR  -3.7    -6.5    1011      91      55    0.02     541     532    WED 06Z 04-MAR  -9.4   -10.9    1016      89      35    0.00     538     526    

[Iowawx]

 

 

Not sure what you are looking at. This is what I got for DSM for the 12z GFS:

MON 18Z 02-MAR  -8.8    -9.5    1036      85      45    0.00     560     533    
TUE 00Z 03-MAR  -8.9    -7.1    1029      91      83    0.00     559     536    
TUE 06Z 03-MAR  -8.8    -3.5    1023      96      99    0.13     556     538    
TUE 12Z 03-MAR  -7.6    -0.7    1015      95     100    0.23     550     538    
TUE 18Z 03-MAR  -3.5    -1.1    1010      95      99    0.05     545     536    
WED 00Z 04-MAR  -3.7    -6.5    1011      91      55    0.02     541     532    
WED 06Z 04-MAR  -9.4   -10.9    1016      89      35    0.00     538     526

[/quote

 

I was looking at the 18Z GFS

[jcwxguy]

http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/USA_ASNOWI72_sfc_144_zpsm5khdbps.gif

 

 

 

http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/USA_ASNOWI48_sfc_174_zpsiyk18lid.gif

[ToastedRavs]

 

 

Not sure what you are looking at. This is what I got for DSM for the 12z GFS:

MON 18Z 02-MAR  -8.8    -9.5    1036      85      45    0.00     560     533    
TUE 00Z 03-MAR  -8.9    -7.1    1029      91      83    0.00     559     536    
TUE 06Z 03-MAR  -8.8    -3.5    1023      96      99    0.13     556     538    
TUE 12Z 03-MAR  -7.6    -0.7    1015      95     100    0.23     550     538    
TUE 18Z 03-MAR  -3.5    -1.1    1010      95      99    0.05     545     536    
WED 00Z 04-MAR  -3.7    -6.5    1011      91      55    0.02     541     532    
WED 06Z 04-MAR  -9.4   -10.9    1016      89      35    0.00     538     526

[/quote

 

I was looking at the 18Z GFS

 

Gotcha.  My bad.  I put more trust in the 0/12z runs.

[winterfreak]

Most of us are singing in the rain for storm two. Minnesota caahes in big.

[ToastedRavs]

It's the 18z.  Don't write it off yet.  One run, and it's the 18z.  'Nuff said

[Tom]

Took a look at the 12z Euro Ensembles and roughly 90% of its members have IA/S WI/IL/IN/MI in the heart of the heaviest snow accumulations.

[Niko]

So, this thread speaks for 2 storms , if I am correct...(Sunday storms and Tuesdays storm). If that is the case, I think we should have a separate thread for Tuesday's storm, so that people on this forum do not get confused.

[Snowlover76]

I am tossing the 18z GFS 

[james1976]

DVN with a great write-up regarding the 2 systems and record cold tomorrow night!
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=DVN&issuedby=DVN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[james1976]

DMX with a short but decent write-up as well. Discussing the -PNA that Tom has mentioned.
http://kamala.cod.edu/ia/latest.fxus63.KDMX.html

[Money]

0z NAM coming in north compared to 18z with 1st wave. Chicago is in a good spot for this.

[Tom]

00z GFS....from the 1st wave...

[Money]

Just need a slight bump north for Chicago posters to potentially get 6+ 

[Iowawx]

00z GFS....from the 1st wave...

Any chance this could go 50-75 miles north? Do the trends support a further north track?

[Seahawkfan]

Agree need just a slight bump north for me We be cashing in 10+. otherwise currently we only get around 7 inches With the current modal posted above.

[Tom]

Any chance this could go 50-75 miles north? Do the trends support a further north track?

Still 4 days away so anything is possible.  12z Euro went north from last nights 00z run.  There will be oscillations back and forth with the models this far out.

[Money]

2nd wave gives MN/W. WI some love with 4-6 or so. 

 

Looks like it's holding back even more energy though and there's another sub 1000 low in the rockies at HR 147 

[centralweather44]

Agree need just a slight bump north for me We be cashing in 10+. otherwise currently we only get around 7 inches With the current modal posted above.

Only 7"? I'll take that from both of these two storms to come combined. Beggers can't be choosers.

[Money]

More precip breaking out in KS/NE at HR 159 and moving ENE. Looks like 3 potential systems now on the GFS?

[Tom]

00z GFS...

[Grizzcoat]

2 runs in a row for the 2nd wave being freezing rain to rain back to snow for S.IA 

 

TUE 06Z 03-MAR -5.0 1.2 1016 95 99 0.06 555 543
TUE 12Z 03-MAR 0.0 2.8 1007 98 99 0.08 550 544
TUE 18Z 03-MAR 0.9 1.5 1005 100 78 0.05 545 541
WED 00Z 04-MAR -2.7 -2.6 1008 89 72 0.01 544 537