February 2014 in the PNW

[GHweatherChris]

The trajectory of the moisture today/tonight does not favor Olympia to Tacoma as it did last night.

It appears it may favor me.

 

I don't care if I see alot, just some.

[Jesse]

Just saw a report on fb of 4" of new snow so far in Corvallis. I have about 1" of new snow. My brother down in Silverton says he's approaching 1".

 

I think this is redefining how we view February around here.

[GHweatherChris]

Radar moving north at a rapid pace.

Already further north than progged.

[Timmy]

We have about 9" here and another 2-4 forecasted. My area had 4" forecasted on the high end

Yesterday. A solid foot sounds good.

[luterra]

Some photos from 650' elevation west of Philomath.  Snow depth approximately 13"

 

 

 

[KMartin]

It's not further north than progged.  The models you looked at are just behind where 0z is 21z in reality etc ... It looks on track to the HRRR.  The way the SFC low is moving SW WA has a block that will prevent this from moving more north than progged.

[Snowman5678]

Reverse convergence zone is forming on the radar. I can confirm the low clouds hanging around campus as well. I think North Seattle-Kirkland-Redmond is in for a surprise as the low pushes north.

was cloudy here in redmond earlier but the sun is out again.

[Jesse]

It's not further north than progged.  The models you looked at are just behind where 0z is 21z in reality etc ... It looks on track to the HRRR.  The way the SFC low is moving SW WA has a block that will prevent this from moving more north than progged.

 

Your profile pic looks like a bad Johnny Depp character.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's not further north than progged.  The models you looked at are just behind where 0z is 21z in reality etc ... It looks on track to the HRRR.  The way the SFC low is moving SW WA has a block that will prevent this from moving more north than progged.

How far north do you think the precipitation will make it.

[KMartin]

Your profile pic looks like a bad Johnny Depp character.

That's me, ladies love it. 

[Dadio]

No.   It does not melt at 37 and sunshine.  Its evaporates in our dry, arctic air.   

 

Got an e-mail from my mom who said the 2 inches of snow there has all melted.    I will tell she is mistaken.     It subliminated in 2 hours of mid-day February sunshine!   

Snow doesn't melt at 37? Thanks to explanations on here, I have been made aware of the power of sublimation or when snow is precipitating, the wet-bulb effect. Not sure why you have a laugh-face at the idea of snow not melting at 37?  It is interesting to watch how the snow sublimates at a temperature below freezing. It also makes sense that when it is sublimating and melting at the same time it would disappear in the sun pretty fast. Not sure why you are still going on about the great BLI snow melt of February 7, 2014? There is a much more interesting event going on just to the south.

[TT-SEA]

How far north do you think the precipitation will make it.

 

ECMWF says about the same as last night.

[Dadio]

Some of us are desperate Tim.

 

Just let us have our fun and quit mocking us.

I'm with you. It has been fun to follow the great winter event going on just to the south, and following the chances of some of it coming our way.

[KMartin]

How far north do you think the precipitation will make it.

Lewis County, WA ... there is a block evident later and that batch of snow in NW OR will slow down as the afternoon/evening progresses.

[TT-SEA]

Snow doesn't melt at 37? Thanks to explanations on here, I have been made aware of the power of sublimation or when snow is precipitating, the wet-bulb effect. Not sure why you have a laugh-face at the idea of snow not melting at 37?  It is interesting to watch how the snow sublimates at a temperature below freezing. It also makes sense that when it is sublimating and melting at the same time it would disappear in the sun pretty fast. Not sure why you are still going on about the great BLI snow melt of February 7, 2014? There is a much more interesting event going on just to the south.

 

You are going on about it.   I posted one comment that it was melting fast... since I had posted pictures of the snow this morning.     It did melt fast.   I assure you that when the air temp is 32 on a sunny February day... the surface temps in the sun are much warmer.    Causing snow to "melt".  

[KMartin]

Tell you what though the next storm that hits in a few days is all rain in the OR Valley and some mountain areas so that's going to be a flood issue.  Could need a Flood Watch, and Flash Flood Watch ..

[Dadio]

It's not further north than progged.  The models you looked at are just behind where 0z is 21z in reality etc ... It looks on track to the HRRR.  The way the SFC low is moving SW WA has a block that will prevent this from moving more north than progged.

That is a clear way of stating what is keeping us colder and unfortunately without much snow. I'm still hoping that the old idea of the models underestimating precipitation will work to my and others favor.

[chinook]

Lewis County, WA ... there is a block evident later and that batch of snow in NW OR will slow down as the afternoon/evening progresses.

 

Are you referring to the overall progress or intensity? 

 

or both?

[brody]

It's not further north than progged.  The models you looked at are just behind where 0z is 21z in reality etc ... It looks on track to the HRRR.  The way the SFC low is moving SW WA has a block that will prevent this from moving more north than progged.

STFU AND GO AWAY

[TT-SEA]

I was also thinking that with all that snow in Oregon and warm moisture plume parked over us next week that there could be flooding down there.

[TT-SEA]

STFU AND GO AWAY

 

6-8 inches in Kirkland... starting soon.   

 

Its just about here.   

[KMartin]

Are you referring to the overall progress or intensity? 

 

or both?

Both, and you can see the curve to the ENE starting from Tillamook, OR right now ... so that's the ENE turn this will start taking as it gets blocked over Lewis County, WA

[Dadio]

You are going on about it.   I posted one comment that it was melting fast... since I had posted pictures of the snow this morning.     It did melt fast.   I assure you that when the air temp is 32 on a sunny February day... the surface temps in the sun are much warmer.    Causing snow to "melt".  

Surface temps in the sun are warmer? Who would've thunk it. No wonder it feels much warmer outside today than the thermometer says. I'm going on about what? What is this "it" you refer to?

 

When you stop posting these stirling posts about the most interesting of weather. Then I'll probably not respond to the posts that aren't there.

[GHweatherChris]

It's not further north than progged.  The models you looked at are just behind where 0z is 21z in reality etc ... It looks on track to the HRRR.  The way the SFC low is moving SW WA has a block that will prevent this from moving more north than progged.

Coastal radar disagrees.  

 

The moisture is streaming NE towards the central coast of Washington, which was not progged.  

 

We shall see in the next few hours what the outcome will be.

 

I say it snows here.

[peregrinator]

Given the radar and how moist the column should be, I was thinking the snow would come in like a wall here, going from nothing to SN+ in only a few minutes. As of now, though, even with good echoes overhead, nothing's falling (EDIT: flurries just started). Hopefully the dry east winds won't be too much of a problem here. Looks like very good snow in far southwest PDX, in any case:

http://www.tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/i5haines_pid562.jpg?1391777515

[Dadio]

Tell you what though the next storm that hits in a few days is all rain in the OR Valley and some mountain areas so that's going to be a flood issue.  Could need a Flood Watch, and Flash Flood Watch ..

I was wondering when this would come up. Hopefully the snow melts slower down in the valley. The Willamette falls will look spectacular next week if the snow is washed away by heavy rain.

[GHweatherChris]

Clouding up here.

 

IR satellite is definitely show a northerly trend.

[brody]

6-8 inches in Kirkland... starting soon.   

 

Its just about here.   

Arent you due to go to Hawaii soon ?

 

Focus on that 

[Dadio]

Coastal radar disagrees.  

 

The moisture is streaming NE towards the central coast of Washington, which was not progged.  

 

We shall see in the next few hours what the outcome will be.

 

I say it snows here.

I watched some of that yesterday at one point and it looked like it hit a wall and just disappeared.

[KMartin]

How do you attach images here without linking them ...

[GHweatherChris]

I watched some of that yesterday at one point and it looked like it hit a wall and just disappeared.

It didn't make nearly this much progress towards our coast yesterday.

[Dadio]

Given the radar and how moist the column should be, I was thinking the snow would come in like a wall here, going from nothing to SN+ in only a few minutes. As of now, though, even with good echoes overhead, nothing's falling (EDIT: flurries just started). Hopefully the dry east winds won't be too much of a problem here. Looks like very good snow in far southwest PDX, in any case:

http://www.tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/i5haines_pid562.jpg?1391777515

I would think that hanging on to the dry cold air longer would be good. It will stretch out the event for you.

[TT-SEA]

Clouding up here.

 

IR satellite is definitely show a northerly trend.

 

 

Clouds will increase this afternoon... flurries will get there this evening.

[GHweatherChris]

Clouds will increase this afternoon... flurries will get there this evening.

Thats all I want.

 

I am not asking for alot.

[KMartin]

Oh then if that's all you're asking for then that's right.  There's enough moisture to make it to Puget Sound later on.

[peregrinator]

I would think that hanging on to the dry cold air longer would be good. It will stretch out the event for you.

In the long run, you're probably right. NOAA PDX also mentioned that the Gorge outflow would enhance frontogenic forcing in the northern Willamette Valley/SW WA. 

[Snowman Josh]

Who's this kmartin goon?

[GHweatherChris]

Oh then if that's all you're asking for then that's right.  There's enough moisture to make it to Puget Sound later on.

?

 

If it snows/flurries here, the only model that showed it is the EURO.

 

All other models were dry.

 

And the coastal radar says the EURO is mostly likely correct.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Dadio]

You are going on about it.   I posted one comment that it was melting fast... since I had posted pictures of the snow this morning.     It did melt fast.   I assure you that when the air temp is 32 on a sunny February day... the surface temps in the sun are much warmer.    Causing snow to "melt".  

I was going to count how many pictures you posted of the melting snow in BLI, but I lost count. You aren't going on about it. Haha. 

 

PS: Thanks for repeating the information about surface temps in the sun being much warmer, not sure everyone got that.