KMartin Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 I like your posts. Thanks for explaining things and showing the maps.Thanks, welcome. Best way I can describe advection is like orographical lifting. The mountains are miles away but the effects downstream result in heavier precipitation as a result. Same with moisture advection numbers 1 Quote <p>Southern California Weather Authority.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br> TheWeatherSpace.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br><br> SCWXA Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/">http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/</a><br> SCWXA Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather">https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather</a><br><br> TWS Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.theweatherspace.com/">http://www.theweatherspace.com/</a><br> TWS Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork">https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork</a></p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 It is pretty much insanity out here. We are over 18" at the moment. Drifts over halfway taller than my car. We live in a split-level with the windows on the lower story at ground level. Can't even see out of them now due to drifting. This is like living at Timberline Lodge. Temp is 24. Happy that you got to experience a true gorge snowstorm. They can be pretty awesome, especially if you avoid the obligatory 1-2" of ice afterwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 How much do you think PDX has recorded so far? Think they had around 3" on Thursday, about 2" yesterday, and a bit more today so far. They should end up over 10", the lightness of the precip surprised me yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luterra Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Got about a quarter inch of ice accumulation at our place W of Philomath. Up to 33 now and am thinking we will stay above freezing from here on out. Could still be surprised. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KMartin Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Here's the surface low overlay. Seems to be following the 12Z GFS pretty well. http://theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum5.jpg Quote <p>Southern California Weather Authority.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br> TheWeatherSpace.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br><br> SCWXA Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/">http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/</a><br> SCWXA Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather">https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather</a><br><br> TWS Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.theweatherspace.com/">http://www.theweatherspace.com/</a><br> TWS Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork">https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork</a></p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KMartin Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Could any of you tell me how much snow PDX got so far today. With that I can find at least the correct model out of 15 that predicted that and get an idea maybe what Seattle might see based off the trend performence. Quote <p>Southern California Weather Authority.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br> TheWeatherSpace.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br><br> SCWXA Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/">http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/</a><br> SCWXA Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather">https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather</a><br><br> TWS Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.theweatherspace.com/">http://www.theweatherspace.com/</a><br> TWS Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork">https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork</a></p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Here's the surface low overlay. Seems to be following the 12Z GFS pretty well. http://theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum5.jpgSat pics look to be taking it further north than gfs? what do you think? Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 18z nam for sure further north with low than 12z. Looks better for Seattle. Sat pics show this trend as well. This is much better. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KMartin Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 This is where the surface low will be in a couple hours. Seems to be in line with satellite and mesoanalysis. The image is 12z GFS http://theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum6.jpg Quote <p>Southern California Weather Authority.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br> TheWeatherSpace.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br><br> SCWXA Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/">http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/</a><br> SCWXA Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather">https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather</a><br><br> TWS Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.theweatherspace.com/">http://www.theweatherspace.com/</a><br> TWS Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork">https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork</a></p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Just stopped by the lake house and it looks like over half of Lake Goodwin is frozen over! Just tried uploading a pic, but apparently the file size is too big? That's annoying! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Radar is looking very promising now, could see some snow this afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Where is that picture from?As far as I can tell this hasn't been answered yet. I am pretty sure that is Lake Shore Drive in Chicago after the February 2011 blizzard. http://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/nwitimes.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/7/f4/7f4aaab0-19f3-5f97-966d-e5ae861923a0/4d4a12c54c070.preview-620.jpg Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Also 18z nam keeps off shore flow going most of sunday. Hmm And the -3c 850 line is still way down by Vancuver Wa at 18z. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KMartin Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Just stopped by the lake house and it looks like over half of Lake Goodwin is frozen over! Just tried uploading a pic, but apparently the file size is too big? That's annoying!Yeah someone knocked the file limit down from 1mb to 56kb or so lol. idk what kind of image one can get with 56k. I'm just uploading mine on my server and linking them. Quote <p>Southern California Weather Authority.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br> TheWeatherSpace.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br><br> SCWXA Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/">http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/</a><br> SCWXA Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather">https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather</a><br><br> TWS Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.theweatherspace.com/">http://www.theweatherspace.com/</a><br> TWS Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork">https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork</a></p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 18z nam for sure further north with low than 12z. Looks better for Seattle. Sat pics show this trend as well. This is much better. Portland seems right in the bullseye? Seems to be some kind of back edge to the precip on the PDX radar already? Wonder if that will fill in or if there is more behind it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KMartin Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Here is the surface low now - http://www.theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum8.jpg Quote <p>Southern California Weather Authority.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br> TheWeatherSpace.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br><br> SCWXA Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/">http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/</a><br> SCWXA Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather">https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather</a><br><br> TWS Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.theweatherspace.com/">http://www.theweatherspace.com/</a><br> TWS Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork">https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork</a></p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 I know Kevin rubbed people the wrong way in the past... but his analysis on here is immensely helpful and I really appreciate it. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 I doubt it will end up snowing in Puyallup. It's 42 degrees here now. Maybe next time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 12z GFS - nothing12z GEM - looking good12z Euro - scraps off the table12z Nam - nothing 18z NAM - not bad so far, hour 36 could be a bit colder seems like its only snow for Bham Vancouver and Hood canal at that point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 I know Kevin rubbed people the wrong way in the past... but his analysis on here is immensely helpful and I really appreciate it.Hell yeah, awesome addition to the forum. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 I doubt it will end up snowing in Puyallup. It's 42 degrees here now. Maybe next time.That 42 wont matter when the precipitation gets there. What's the dew point? Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 12z GFS - nothing12z GEM - looking good12z Euro - scraps off the table12z Nam - nothing18z nam has snow for Seattle tonight now. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Nice little burst of silver dollar flakes here. Very heavy. Definitely a "warmer" snow than we've seen so far. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Coast radar says precipitation wont be long now. This is looking good. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Nice little burst of silver dollar flakes here. Very heavy. Definitely a "warmer" snow than we've seen so far. How much on ground? Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 12z GFS - nothing12z GEM - looking good12z Euro - scraps off the table12z Nam - nothing 18z NAM - not bad so far ? 12z GFS shows a good event for the Seattle area tonight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 ? 12z GFS shows a good event for the Seattle area tonight. gfs_namer_018_1000_500_thick.gifnot mm5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 I know Kevin rubbed people the wrong way in the past... but his analysis on here is immensely helpful and I really appreciate it. Yup props to Kevin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 That 42 wont matter when the precipitation gets there. What's the dew point?There are dew points in the teens in your area. You will have snow. Even if it starts as mix. It will change. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 not mm5Could be wrong. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KMartin Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Here is the WRF-ARW for like 2am or so tomorrow morning. Kind of shows similar returns to the advection map earlier. http://www.theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum9.jpg Quote <p>Southern California Weather Authority.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br> TheWeatherSpace.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br><br> SCWXA Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/">http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/</a><br> SCWXA Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather">https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather</a><br><br> TWS Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.theweatherspace.com/">http://www.theweatherspace.com/</a><br> TWS Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork">https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork</a></p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Coast radar says precipitation wont be long now. This is looking good. Coastal radar looking way better than yesterday at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Anyway I would say half an inch to 3 for Seattle before the warmup unless GEM is right. Something stupid for Hood Canal and probably 6+ for Vancouver BC with a sharp cut off in Bellingham metro depending on how Fraser outflow works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KMartin Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 At least down here the ARW is superior to the NMM or WRF. So maybe it'll prove the same up there if it is correct. Quote <p>Southern California Weather Authority.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br> TheWeatherSpace.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist<br><br> SCWXA Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/">http://www.southerncaliforniaweatherauthority.com/</a><br> SCWXA Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather">https://www.facebook.com/SouthernCaliforniaWeather</a><br><br> TWS Website - <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.theweatherspace.com/">http://www.theweatherspace.com/</a><br> TWS Facebook - <a class="bbc_url" href="https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork">https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherSpaceNetwork</a></p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Nws going for 1-3 from Olympia south. Cool. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 How much on ground? We've picked up almost two inches in the last three hours or so. Probably about eight on the ground now. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 We've picked up almost two inches in the last three hours or so. Probably about eight on the ground now. You should open a new thread for snowfall total brags. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 Duration of precip on the radar does not look great right now, hopefully it will fill in as it continues moving towards us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 We've picked up almost two inches in the last three hours or so. Probably about eight on the ground now. How long has it been since you've had this much? Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 8, 2014 Report Share Posted February 8, 2014 You should open a new thread for snowfall total brags. My total Tuesday-Friday was 8.5" Not bad for all the bitching I've been doing. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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