February 2014 in the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Thinking there will be some sort of warning issued for south of Olympia or a advisory.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

My temp up to 31 too. Which gives me hope I will poke above freezing or at least there won't be significant icing here. Trees have that silvery look.

Amazing how much better you do with cold onshore flow for snow.

[peregrinator]

This time around, I don't think there's much question that precipitation amounts will be substantial here. All models have 0.50-0.80" of QPF with this upcoming batch, and the moisture feed is tapping the subtropics very well. Surface temperatures are also below freezing and there's still a good easterly gradient.

 

What we are going to have to worry about if we want snow is the warming between 800 and 950mb. The RAP (which is very warm-biased) pushes upper-layer warmth over the area by 1PM, but it also thinks the surface temperature at PDX should be 33 right now, and insisted on turning our snow over to plain rain yesterday. The RGEM, which is also a little bit warm-biased, thinks the upper layers will be conducive to primarily sleet here as well.

 

Thankfully, the GGEM, NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are all on the side of big snow. Of all of them, the NAM seems to be verifying the best right now at 925mb (for comparison--http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s11/925mb/925mb_sf.gif?1391881161332 vs. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_006_925_temp_ht.gif ). And it gives us 0.60" of QPF and doesn't turn PDX from snow to something else until 18z-00z tomorrow. 

 

And yeah, the PDX AFD was a really good read.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Amazing how much better you do with cold onshore flow for snow.

 

Yep that is all I want, plus no valley snow means I just have to go 5 miles and I'm at highway speed.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Watching the sat loop I think this system will clip us. Looks to be some action starting to spin up a bit and shoving a piece of energy north.

[GobBluth]

Temps slowly climbing in Beaverton. 30.0

[GHweatherChris]

Thought that yesterday, and nothing.

[KMartin]

Looks like they took my advice on their FB and got an Ice Storm Warning out where I did for Eugene ... though I'd advise it further north as well ...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Temp up all the way up to 36 here now don't look good for snow here.

It would still snow. Dew point...

[GHweatherChris]

I am starting to think the Seattle one will be long and good since its not out yet.

 

Or, just like normal, it will just say small chance of light snow, previous discussion follows.

It was boring.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like they took my advice on their FB and got an Ice Storm Warning out where I did for Eugene ... though I'd advise it further north as well ...

Good call.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It was boring.

Yep. Keep in mind some of the best snows I've seen here were not forecasted to well and usually followed a discussion like that.

[HighlandExperience]

Watching the sat loop I think this system will clip us. Looks to be some action starting to spin up a bit and shoving a piece of energy north.

 

Lewis County will be the big winner it seems:

 

IN FAVOR OF SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LATEST GFS (AND UW

WRFGFS) WHICH SUGGEST THAT LEWIS COUNTY WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF

SNOW THIS EVENING AND AN INCH OF SNOW SHOULD SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS

THE SEATTLE METRO AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

[FroYoBro]

Temps slowly climbing in Beaverton. 30.0

Are you sure it's that warm there? It is down to 25 with these heavy snow band only a few miles away.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Lewis County will be the big winner it seems:

 

IN FAVOR OF SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LATEST GFS (AND UW

WRFGFS) WHICH SUGGEST THAT LEWIS COUNTY WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF

SNOW THIS EVENING AND AN INCH OF SNOW SHOULD SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS

THE SEATTLE METRO AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

There is a northern trend for sure. We will see how far north soon.

[snow maniac]

It would still snow. Dew point...

Yeah your right about that.. I still have a stiff NE wind here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Uhhhh...I just switched over to sleet from ZR.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Of all the different systems that have been going to our south recently, this one holds the greatest chance at snow for the Puget Sound region for sure.

Yeah it looks to be having less resistance moving north.

[FroYoBro]

Snow has been falling much harder today than any other time in the last few days. Adding up fast on the ground. The roads are going to be totally impassable, especially when it turns to freezing rain. 

[GHweatherChris]

I am looking at the sat and radar, and I am honestly not feeling it.

[peregrinator]

Whoa, visibility is down to a quarter mile here. Super heavy snow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If it dont snow in seattle by 8pm I will eat a beer can.

[thekingslayer]

Heavy, heavy snow here now. Probably the most intense I've seen since Dec 2008. Measured this morning and I have about 7.5" on the ground with huge drifts elsewhere. Simply gorgeous outside.

[KMartin]

I know I'll get trashed by the WA group north of Lewis County but these were real accurate yesterday for the general location of the block.  This is the predictive radar for now till 10pm

Upper Left - 10am
Upper Right - 6pm
Lower Left - 10pm

[TT-SEA]

Since I am usually the one with the worst weather on here... thought I should post a picture of my backyard now:

 

http://s29.postimg.org/xpx0lcpfb/IMG_20140208_094312.jpg

[TT-SEA]

I know I'll get trashed by the WA group north of Lewis County but these were real accurate yesterday for the general location of the block.  This is the predictive radar for now till 10pm

 

Upper Left - 10am

Upper Right - 6pm

Lower Left - 10pm

 

 

 

Thanks for the updates... I find this information very useful.

[KMartin]

Since I am usually the one with the worst weather on here... thought I should post a picture of my backyard now:

 

http://s29.postimg.org/xpx0lcpfb/IMG_20140208_094312.jpg

Wow you have a great view man.  Nevermind the non-snow image, I live in the hills as well, but urban and my balcony shows freeways and businesses below ... This looks nice ...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I know I'll get trashed by the WA group north of Lewis County but these were real accurate yesterday for the general location of the block.  This is the predictive radar for now till 10pm

 

Upper Left - 10am

Upper Right - 6pm

Lower Left - 10pm

 

What's your opinion on what is shown in this model vs sat loop?

[GobBluth]

Are you sure it's that warm there? It is down to 25 with these heavy snow band only a few miles away.

The band just came through and dropped us down. Odd.

[Dadio]

Precip does not reach Bellingham until 5 p.m. on the WRF.

Which is part of why I think Bellingham's precipitation will stay mostly snow. The warmer air isn't rushing in.

[peregrinator]

Does anyone have 12z ECMWF snowmaps, both for Portland and elsewhere? The Wunderground maps are always pretty annoying to read, but it looks like the Euro thinks it gets toasty pretty quickly here. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

D**n Portland discussion now talking about 1-2 inches per hr and white out conditions. They are getting there one in 20 or 30 year winter.

[Dadio]

This is looking terrible for them. Ice..Not good.

Personally, I love ice storms. The problem is for those that suffer from it.

[Tyler Mode]

From Mark Nelsen:

 

Storm #3: 6 Hours Early!

February 8, 2014

10am Saturday…

Just woke up and checked out radar; here we go!  Storm #3 is moving in WAY ahead of schedule today with heavy snow across the metro area already before 10am.  It appears the atmosphere is still cold enough to support snow (for now) north of Salem.  A new winter storm warning is up now through tomorrow morning for most of the Willamette Valley and now an Ice Storm Warning for the central/south Willamette Valley due to very thick ice accumulations.

• Expect 4-7″ new snow in most of the metro area today/this evening.
• Most of the precipitation should stay as snow in the metro area
• Some freezing rain is possible in the metro area by evening, definitely possible during the overnight hours

Heavy freezing rain will develop in the Willamette Valley and snow will change to freezing rain from Salem up into the far southeast suburbs of the metro area during the afternoon.  Lots of thick ice developing and power outages!

Note the WRF-GFS forecast of snowfall in the metro area today…a much juicier storm than the last two over the metro area:

[thekingslayer]

Mark Nelsen calling for 4-7" of new snow today? D**n!!!

[weather girl]

The band just came through and dropped us down. Odd.

We just dropped to 26 here. Still snowing. I have about 11 inches on my deck. I haven't read back through the posts so forgive me if this is a repeat, but the Marion County Sheriff is requiring chains or traction devices to travel around Salem. I have never seen it snow like this here before. It just keeps snowing. It is very cool, and I am not taking one minute of it for granted. I heard some people compare the snow to 1969. Just the fact that it just keeps snowing. We should switch over to ice, z rain here.

[Perturbed Member]

I really don't think ZR will be a big threat for most of the PDX metro, I think snow will remain the primary precipitation type here. PDX NWS seems to say the same:

 

"FARTHER NORTH...IN THE PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO...THE WARM NOSE WILL

HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME WORKING ITS WAY TO THE COLUMN. THIS DUE TO
THE DEPTH OF THE COLD POOL EAST OF THE CASCADES...FILTERING COLD AIR
WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES. THE RELATIVELY LOWER TERRAIN
BETWEEN MOUNT ADAMS AND MOUNT HOOD WILL ALLOW THIS COLD AIR TO PUSH
FREELY WESTWARD INTO THE PDX/VUO METRO. IF THERE IS ANY QUESTION AS
TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS COLD AIR...IT IS ONLY 10 DEGREES AT
GOVERNMENT CAMP. BASED ON REPORTS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST IT APPEARS
THIS COLD POOL IS ABOUT 5000 FEET DEEP."

 

I think this is especially the case for most of the day today. 

 

Snowing pretty hard here with huge flakes right now. Harder than any of the previous storms. 

[TT-SEA]

Well... the 12Z ECMWF is pretty d*mn adamant that the entire Seattle area gets in on the action tonight then turning to rain showers tomorrow.

 

Good enough for me.    

 

It will snow tonight... at least 1-2 inches.

[thekingslayer]

Well... the 12Z ECMWF is pretty D**n adamant that the entire Seattle area gets in on the action tonight then turning to rain showers tomorrow.

 

Good enough for me.    

 

It will snow tonight... at least 1-2 inches.

 

Awesome, hope you guys do get in on some of the action. 

 

Absolutely dumping here and temp hovering between 24 and 25F.

[luminen]

Rain is really starting to come down now...

 

If I go out I will definitely wear my insulated xtratuffs.   

http://i.imgur.com/AG1WCFq.jpg