February 2014 in the PNW

[Snowman5678]

OK, I have officially seen enough snow now.  8" today on top of 10" yesterday.  With compaction, snow depth is 15".  There is a limit to what a Subaru with chains can drive through, and if we get another 5" it the work-to-fun ratio will tip in favor of work.

 

650' on the east slope of the coast range west of Philomath.  Had snow yesterday until 3 pm, then ZR for two hours, sleet for an hour, and back to snow.  Today have seen nothing but snow, temp up to 30.  Perfectly OK with me if the next two storms go north or bring just rain here.

I've driven my outback in 2ft of snow up in the mountains but once it gets around 20 inches its harder.

[TT-SEA]

As a real weather geek. I would never get tired of that.

 

But to each their own.

 

Real life gets in the way.   And there is diminishing return in terms of excitement when you get 3 inches on top of 18 inches.   Then you also have to start worry about damage as well.    Too much a good thing become annoying real quick.

[epiceast]

I've driven my outback in 2ft of snow up in the mountains but once it gets around 20 inches its harder.

Yea honestly it's pretty hard for me to imagine the amount of snow that an outback can't handle.

[TT-SEA]

Yea honestly it's pretty hard for me to imagine the amount of snow that an outback can't handle.

 

I need to get one then.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Is that a Corn Dog that guy is holding?

 

Yes, and the other guys were stealing 40s from the mini mart. It was in some little town between Hood River and Trout Lake.

[GHweatherChris]

Real life gets in the way.   And there is diminishing return in terms of excitement when you get 3 inches on top of 18 inches.   Then you also have to start worry about damage as well.    Too much a good thing become annoying real quick.

A true weather geek would take it in stride and just deal with the consequences.

[Snowman5678]

Didn't think precip was going to make it up to the seattle area...looks like i'm right so far.

[GHweatherChris]

Radar is pushing all moisture east now.  Moisture is still further north overall than any model (other than EURO) but noone other than that predicted it to be as far north as it is, unless they decided it on a whim based on radar trends this afternoon.

 

Hope now goes to tomorrow and tomorrow night.

[KMartin]

TWS Freezing Rain Advisory ... Issued to my viewer's emails in this area of Oregon ...
 

For parts of: Willamette Valley from Eugene, Corvallis, and Salem and areas nearby along the I-5 corridor …
 

Office:  TheWeatherSpace.com has issued a Freezing Rain Advisory effective now starting Saturday morning
 

Issued:  2/7/2014 at 7:20pm PST
 

Discussion:  Freezing rain is expected as warmer air above 2,000 feet sets in … and as temperatures remain at freezing in the valley … anything the rain comes in contact with will freeze instantly.  This is freezing rain and the zone from Eugene at the south end to Salem, OR at the north end, with Corvallis, OR in the middle … suggests by short range guidance that this area will have a Freezing Rain problem on Saturday morning that could and just may make for dangerous travel conditions on the interstate …

Map of affected zones -

http://www.theweatherspace.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2714e-1000x666.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like precip is winding down over W. Oregon...Temps are slowly moderating at the lowest levels.

[luterra]

Yea honestly it's pretty hard for me to imagine the amount of snow that an outback can't handle.

There's a section of 13% grade on our driveway that got us stuck in 15" in our Forester, with the wheels spinning on the packed tracks and the undercarriage dragging.  I'm sure it could push through two feet on level ground.

[epiceast]

Yes, and the other guys were stealing 40s from the mini mart. It was in some little town between Hood River and Trout Lake.

The thiefs made off with 10 bucks worth of merchandise.

[epiceast]

BTW 12z GEM is firmly in the snow camp for Sunday in Seattle

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/c44_100.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just went outside...Temp has dropped to 30, light sleet is falling. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The thiefs made off with 10 bucks worth of merchandise.

 

Yeah, I didn't feel to bad about looking the other way.

[KMartin]

Actually I think the Willamette Valley needs an Ice Storm Warning issued due to the longevity of the freezing rain tomorrow.

[GHweatherChris]

It has to be offshore flow that is eroding the moisture, the overall movement still appears to be NNE but the moisture is disappearing.  Might be due to the chehalis gap hurting me now all of a sudden

[pscz1140]

BTW 12z GEM is firmly in the snow camp for Sunday in Seattle

 

The new GFS looks very promising too. Enough begging for flurries - this could be the real deal!

[Snowman5678]

The new GFS looks very promising. Enough begging for flurries - that could be the real deal!

before changing to rain the next day.

[Perturbance]

14.5" on the ground here.  Snow stopped around 7:30.  May be getting sporadic sleet now; radar shows it clearing out.  28.2°; up a degree from 6:15 pm or so.

 

http://i.imgur.com/rDWc1H3.jpg

 

[pscz1140]

before changing to rain the next day.

 

I'll take it. Great sunny day today and snow looking likely tomorrow night/Sunday. Better than most weekends....

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Random photo of the day.

 

About a 79 ram200 series long bed 1/2 ton 318 v8 with a 727 torqflight 3 speed auto.

[TT-SEA]

I'll take it. Great sunny day today and snow looking likely tomorrow night/Sunday. Better than most weekends....

 

 

Does look good for tomorrow night.

 

Tomorrow should be fairly sunny as well.

[GHweatherChris]

Northward trend on radar is over.  So close but yet so far away.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Northward trend on radar is over.  So close but yet so far away.

Yeah what a shitter.

[TT-SEA]

WRF shows lots of precip over Oregon tomorrow afternoon and its way too warm aloft for snow.

 

I am thinking people should cheer on warmer surface temps down there.

 

The only other option is a nasty ice storm.   

 

Snow is off the table south of PDX:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/slp.24.0000.gif

[JGardner_Gresham]

21.7 here in Gresham. Up to a total of 5.5" of snow. East wind ramping up again. We're continuing to monitor the possibility this doesn't moderate as quick. I'll have a post in a bit about it

[TT-SEA]

For those who enjoyed this gorgeous, sunny day from Seattle northward... lets do it again one more time tomorrow!

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/intcld.21.0000.gif

[epiceast]

The new GFS looks very promising too. Enough begging for flurries - this could be the real deal!

not nearly as good as GEM, the low goes into Vancouver Island on GFS and Monday will be 50 degree rain. GEM on other hand is oh so D**n close to a snowstorm.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I've been watching this period for a couple days. It has trended further south. If it keeps trending south it could be interesting. Fun to watch anyway. Just north of the low is some very cold air.

[TT-SEA]

Jet stream looks more suppressed again next week on the 00Z GFS,    Not cold enough for lowland snow... but not a warm converyor belt of rain either.    Wonderful for the mountains.

[Deweydog]

Eeeesh... Tomorrow evening could be a hot mess.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

not nearly as good as GEM, the low goes into Vancouver Island on GFS and Monday will be 50 degree rain. GEM on other hand is oh so D**n close to a snowstorm.

Is the gem further south with the low?

[westcoastexpat]

Sorry, but you're wrong. Areas to the north of Olympia have had a colder and cold longer stretch than has been the norm for February.

 

We're talking about snow, here. Areas north of Olympia have had the same crap: below normal, dry, snowless (again).

[epiceast]

Is the gem further south with the low?

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_060.jpg

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jet stream looks more suppressed again next week on the 00Z GFS,    Not cold enough for lowland snow... but not a warm converyor belt of rain either.    Wonderful for the mountains.

Yeah, wouldn't it be something for us to have a situation like Portland next week? It's there, just north of us.

[TT-SEA]

A certain member near the coast is going to like this image from 7-10 p.m. tomorrow evening!

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/snow3.30.0000.gif

[pscz1140]

not nearly as good as GEM, the low goes into Vancouver Island on GFS and Monday will be 50 degree rain. GEM on other hand is oh so D**n close to a snowstorm.

 

At least it shows some moisture.....it's been a desert up here!

 

Some snow is better than no snow, even if it doesn't stick around too long.

[epiceast]

At least it shows some moisture.....it's been a desert up here!

 

Some snow is better than no snow, even if it doesn't stick around too long.

GEM is 3+ inches for Tacoma- Bellingham and foot of snow for Hood canal and Vancouver BC.

GFS shows scraps of snow.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/wa_snow3.33.0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

Then 10 p.m. - 1 a.m. 

 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/snow3.33.0000.gif