February 2014 in the PNW

[Abbotsford_wx]

Well I would hope so.

 

I still had between 8 and 11" in my back yard this afternoon. Probably will still have some around when it starts snowing this weekend.

 

I'd actually be ecstatic with a foot. That's about 4" more than anything I've had since 2008.

 

My yard still has between 2" and 4" with the front yard being the deeper of the two... but the yards across the street from me are completely bare (they get full sunlight for about 6-8 hours a day).

[brody]

Since I would have to buy the tickets in advance to get a good deal, I need somewhere that it's almost certain to be cold with snow on the ground at pretty much any time during an average winter.

Tromso Norway comes to mind 

[BLI snowman]

I'd actually be ecstatic with a foot. That's about 4" more than anything I've had since 2008.

 

My yard still has between 2" and 4" with the front yard being the deeper of the two... but the yards across the street from me are completely bare (they get full sunlight for about 6-8 hours a day).

 

Yeah, same story here. Looking green in places but all things in the shade still look great, including rooftops, plants, and cars.

[snow_wizard]

Tim it would be like you waited for the sunny day you love all year and it never came. Imagine years and years of that crap. That's how Jim and me feel right now. I hate that i'm stuck here.

 

 

I think you probably helped him to see very clearly with this post.

[bainbridgekid]

Since I would have to buy the tickets in advance to get a good deal, I need somewhere that it's almost certain to be cold with snow on the ground at pretty much any time during an average winter.

You live a 2 hour drive from Paradise. Why not just go up there during a snowstorm once a month or something?

 

Not saying it is the same thing as snow here, but that sounds more enjoyable than Fairbanks in the middle of winter when the day is only a few hours long and it might be 50 below zero.

[snow_wizard]

The neat thing about when I live where it snows a lot is I will be able to come on here and look at this area with much less emotion.  It should help me do some good forecasting for this area.  At this point I am just fried and not even close to the top of my game.

 

The setup being shown on the ECMWF is a lot like what happened in NW Oregon earlier in the month but shifted northward 200 miles or so.  Still a chance it could drop 50 miles further south and nail Seattle pretty good.  Even the Euro can be off by that small amount at this time range.  Really no reason to expect this to go our way, but the chance is there.

[snow_wizard]

You live a 2 hour drive from Paradise. Why not just go up there during a snowstorm once a month or something?

 

Not saying it is the same thing as snow here, but that sounds more enjoyable than Fairbanks in the middle of winter when the day is only a few hours long and it might be 50 below zero.

 

 

I just need to experience the most extreme conditions possible to satisfy me for a while.  In 2000 I never dreamed I would still be waiting to see a great January in 2014.  I'm just done with it here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The local tv weather people make it sound like it's not allowed to snow in Seattle. They make it sound like it is bad if it happens. I get so sick of that.

[snow_wizard]

The local tv weather people make it sound like it's not allowed to snow in Seattle. They make it sound like it is bad if it happens. I get so sick of that.

 

I totally agree with you.  It always drives me nuts to hear talk about how lucky we are to live in such a boring climate in the winter.  In some ways they are deluding themselves.  It sucks here in the winter most of the time.

[Phil]

I just need to experience the most extreme conditions possible to satisfy me for a while. In 2000 I never dreamed I would still be waiting to see a great January in 2014. I'm just done with it here.

If you want extreme, try Minnesota. Fairbanks is weak sauce comparatively.

[snow_wizard]

If you want extreme, try Minnesota. Fairbanks is weak sauce comparatively.

 

Fairbanks is certainly colder.

[whitechristmas]

The local tv weather people make it sound like it's not allowed to snow in Seattle. They make it sound like it is bad if it happens. I get so sick of that.

 

Me too! They think everyone hates winter. Breaking news: They don't!

[BLI snowman]

If you want extreme, try Minnesota. Fairbanks is weak sauce comparatively.

 

 

??

 

Not really. Here's what a nice cold January in Fairbanks looks like

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/pafa/2012/1/26/MonthlyHistory.html

 

Minnesota can get more dynamic cyclogenesis, but that's about it.

[Phil]

Fairbanks is certainly colder.

Actually I have a great idea for you. Go to Mt. Washington NH..for a small fee you can spend a week at the observatory and get blown around in 90mph winds and blinding snow.

 

That's as extreme as it gets. My wife and I did it in 2009 and it was awesome.

[Phil]

??

 

Not really. Here's what a nice cold January in Fairbanks looks like

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/pafa/2012/1/26/MonthlyHistory.html

 

Minnesota can get more dynamic cyclogenesis, but that's about it.

I thought he was planning on taking the trip to catch a blizzard? I didn't say anything about avg temperatures.

 

Of course Fairbanks is colder on average.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Me too! They think everyone hates winter. Breaking news: They don't!

Steve pool is the worst. By far. He will say, looks like we got lucky and it will miss us! F.u. dude not everyone wants it to be 50 degrees everyday in the winter.

[snow_wizard]

Actually I have a great idea for you. Go to Mt. Washington NH..for a small fee you can spend a week at the observatory and get blown around in 90mph winds and blinding snow.

 

That's as extreme as it gets. My wife and I did it in 2009 and it was awesome.

 

Risky when I buy a ticket in advance to get a better price.  With my luck they would have a ridge when I went.

[BLI snowman]

I thought he was planning on taking the trip to catch a blizzard? I didn't say anything about avg temperatures.

 

He wants snow/cold. For cold, you can't beat Fairbanks in the U.S.

 

For snow, I'd try Valdez.

[whitechristmas]

Steve pool is the worst. By far. He will say, looks like we got lucky and it will miss us! F.u. dude not everyone wants it to be 50 degrees everyday in the winter.

 

Yah, the old "we dodged a bullet" routine. I want the bullet...over and over again!

 

[AnthonyC]

Oh well. Time to move on.

 

At least more snow for the mountain passes.

[HighlandExperience]

The local tv weather people make it sound like it's not allowed to snow in Seattle. They make it sound like it is bad if it happens. I get so sick of that.

 

The way the past two years have gone, you would think Seattle is incapable of getting snow.

[TT-SEA]

Jim... you do not have to buy a ticket in advance.   Sometimes the best deals are at the last minute when they try to sell empty seats.

 

If you are going to make a trip just for weather then wait until a week out or less when you KNOW something big will be happening.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Jim... you do not have to buy a ticket in advance.   Sometimes the best deals are at the last minute when they try to sell empty seats.

 

If you are going to make a trip just for weather then wait until a week out or less when you KNOW something big will be happening.

This makes sense.  Just don't count on the GFS to help your planning.

 

Actually, the GFS does pretty well for many places much of the time.  Hopefully, the upgrades will help it master the PNW.  In the end, I suppose it doesn't matter much since the weather is going to do what it's going to do.  I just like the litte kid excitement of knowing what's coming and being prepared to watch it.

[catnip]

6z ensembles much colder than the operational, which is the warmest. Perhaps we are close enough that it does not really mean much though.

[Jesse]

06Z operational and ensemble mean doesn't even get PDX below 0c now.

 

Bring on spring!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

06z gfs was crapy. 06z nam crap. 12Z Nam is a bit colder and more aggressive than the 6z. Maybe the 12z gfs will follow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The nam does drag the arctic front down. Looks like -9c in seattle.

[HighlandExperience]

The nam does drag the arctic front down. Looks like -9c in seattle.

 

Last nights NWS discussion totally disregarded the 00z ECMWF.

 

Our entire winter hinges on the 12z today <_>

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, this "event" sure fizzled. Luckily I never got emotionally invested in this one as my location was always going to be on the edge no matter what.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Last nights NWS discussion totally disregarded the 00z ECMWF.

 

Our entire winter hinges on the 12z today <_>

what ever model dont show snow is what they follow. Climate. Safest bet.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow, this "event" sure fizzled. Luckily I never got emotionally invested in this one as my location was always going to be on the edge no matter what.

It will make a come back.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12z gfs has trended in the right direction.

[snow maniac]

It will make a come back.

Fingers crossed, as I have only got 1 inch of the white stuff this year.

[HighlandExperience]

12z gfs has trended in the right direction.

 

There are some definite improvements. Things look better compared to yesterday's runs.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

There are some definite improvements. Things look better compared to yesterday's runs.

at this stage of the game a trend to the better is huge.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It looks like the gfs would have light snow for Puget sound on and off Saturday into sunday. 850 temp is only -4 to -6 for seattle area but with outflow offshore flow I would think most would be snow away from the water and sea level. The area of low pressure is further south and that little change pulls the arctic front a little further south as would be expected. This is far from resolved.

[pscz1140]

at this stage of the game a trend to the better is huge.

 

Hopefully we can pull a November 2010 out of our a**es!!

[TT-SEA]

It looks like the gfs would have light snow for Puget sound on and off Saturday into sunday. 850 temp is only -4 to -6 for seattle area but with outflow offshore flow I would think most would be snow away from the water and sea level. The area of low pressure is further south and that little change pulls the arctic front a little further south as would be expected. This is far from resolved.

 

 

So strange that the WRF continues to be totally dry for the weekend.    Its supposed to be based on the GFS operational run.   Saturday is just 48 hours away and there is not even the hint of precip on the 12Z WRF that day.  

[Guest Monty67]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/top-10-snowiest-major-cities-a/23760437

 

Cities for snow-lovers to visit.

[TT-SEA]

The WRF had been out to lunch ever since last weekend's event, where it did not perform admirably. Especially leading up to the event.

 

 

Yeah... I definitely think its completely out to lunch this time with the GFS and ECMWF showing precip.    

 

Just so strange to see it so completely dry when the operational run shows precip all weekend.   With the event last weekend... the WRF showed tons of precip on every run during the week leading up to the event.   The only question was precip type... it was definitely wet.