February 2014 in the PNW

[HighlandExperience]

MM5 NAM is now dry for Saturday and then scours out the cold air as the precip arrives on Sunday except in Bellingham.

 

Looks just like the last event for Seattle.

 

Will see what the ECMWF says. 

[pscz1140]

MM5 NAM is now dry for Saturday and then scours out the cold air as the precip arrives on Sunday except in Bellingham.

 

Looks just like the last event for Seattle.

 

I'm holding out for a miracle. Just need that low to move in a 100 miles south or so. I'm sure stranger things have happened.

 

Obviously it wouldn't hurt if the initial vorticity would set up a bit further south.

[TT-SEA]

I'm holding out for a miracle. Just need that low to move in a 100 miles south or so. I'm sure stranger things have happened.

 

Not feeling that... everything has been inching northward with each run.    Climo!

[jaya]

The Seattle AFD's are garbage and you know it.  it has nothing to do with snow, rain, wind, sun or lightning.  Overall their write ups just suck balls.  That's my only beef with the Seattle NWS folks.  Folks who frequent this forum want a little more detail than they continually put out(not just winter/snow related).

Posts like this don't get professional mets too interested in contributing.  No way to satisfy some folks!

[jaya]

Maybe.

 

But if that is the case, then I don't wanna see anyone get excited about the ensembles ever again.

 

The ensembles are available for a reason, and if they all show something entirely different than the OP (which they are) then I would tend to lean their way.  But what do I know, I am not a Pro Met.

Short range ensembles should be coming available as we get close to the event.  I believe there are some links on line.  Maybe someone can find a good link (or I will when I get a chance).

[TT-SEA]

I rarely read the AFDs.

 

We usually know what is going on because we look at the models in such close detail anyways.    If the models are all over the place... nothing the NWS says is going to change that.   We all have to just wait and see what happens.

 

I literally never watch the weather segment on the local news.   There is absolutely nothing new they can tell us.

[Phil]

OK i get it, you feel the OP is better short term, but I am allowed my own opinion as well.

 

I am not saying either one will be correct, but when you have every single ensemble in the short term screaming a totally different outcome than the OP, they cannot be ignored considering the major differences of outcome that could occur.  And, other models have shown something more close to the GFS ensembles than the GFS OP recently as well.

 

We shall wait and see.

 

I am not expecting a major event of snow at all, but all possibilities are in play.

 

I'm not trying to tell you what to think. But maybe stop to consider why the GEFS are colder than the OP?

[GHweatherChris]

Short range ensembles should be coming available as we get close to the event.  I believe there are some links on line.  Maybe someone can find a good link (or I will when I get a chance).

I did not know there were short range ensembles.  

 

I always just figured the a comparison day of was enough.

[GHweatherChris]

I'm not trying to tell you what to think. But maybe stop to consider why the GEFS are colder than the OP?

Maybe you should stop and consider why the the OP is warmer than the GEFS.  I know you allegedly have more extensive knowledge than all of us, however, the discrepancy is insane.

 

Other models look better than the OP GFS.

[jaya]

I'm not trying to tell you what to think. But maybe stop to consider why the GEFS are colder than the OP?

GEFS very likely colder due to poorer resolution.  I do get nervous though when I see the op so far an outlier.  I've seen the op fail miserably in the past with the ensemble mean winning - even in the shorter term.  We will see. The 18Z NAM was still cold (it shouldn't be because of its resolution). The operational 00z NAM now looks even colder and looks like some snow Sat and even more Sat night and Sun morning.  The Nam is full bore cold-snow looking for the entire Seattle metro area.  Bellingham and folks up north should do well on the way out of this one the way it looks at this point.  Things can change, but it is weird that the nam is the consistent cold model with over -20 mb thru the Fraser and lots of cold air spilling over the Cascades.

[brody]

Maybe you should stop and consider why the the OP is warmer than the GEFS.  I know you allegedly have more extensive knowledge than all of us, however, the discrepancy is insane.

 

Other models look better than the OP GFS.

Maybe we should all just STOP and pet a puppy 

[jaya]

Here is SPC link to SREF data.  One link, I'll look for others.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Phil, what do you think of my prediction of a multi-year Nina beginning in 2015-16?

[jaya]

SREF Plume viewer, this link is for Seattle I think

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140227&RT=21&PRM=3hrly-TMP&SID=PAE&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=6&mLAT=46.72833338404988&mLON=-121.77287734375&mTYP=roadmap

[HighlandExperience]

GEFS very likely colder due to poorer resolution.  I do get nervous though when I see the op so far an outlier.  I've seen the op fail miserably in the past with the ensemble mean winning - even in the shorter term.  We will see. The 18Z NAM was still cold (it shouldn't be because of its resolution). The operational 00z NAM now looks even colder and looks like some snow Sat and even more Sat night and Sun morning.  The Nam is full bore cold-snow looking for the entire Seattle metro area.  Bellingham and folks up north should do well on the way out of this one the way it looks at this point.  Things can change, but it is weird that the nam is the consistent cold model with over -20 mb thru the Fraser and lots of cold air spilling over the Cascades.

 

I enjoy your posts. Nice work. 

[pscz1140]

Not feeling that... everything has been inching northward with each run.    Climo!

 

00z GFS looks a bit better......I'm not giving up yet!!

[Weather101]

Here is SPC link to SREF data. One link, I'll look for others.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/

Any ideas for Vancouver BC or close to the border

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Any ideas for Vancouver BC or close to the border

Jaya posted this link for Seattle: http://alturl.com/rt7s9

 

If you look at that, it shows a map, and from that, you can click onto Surrey, and get data from there.  All sorts of parameters are avaiable.

[jaya]

Any ideas for Vancouver BC or close to the border

I had to go to work for a little while and saw some good data. Looks like as you go north, things could be much more interesting than farther south and for longer.  Would not be out of the question to see a repeat of what we just had!

[jaya]

Thought I saw a -6 at 850 Sat aftn/night on the new 00z GFS. Lots of overrunning Sat night and Sun.  Could be nice!

[jaya]

Surface 12Z Sun

 

[jaya]

850 12Z Sun from new GFS

 

[pscz1140]

Jaya posted this link for Seattle: http://alturl.com/rt7s9

 

If you look at that, it shows a map, and from that, you can click onto Surrey, and get data from there.  All sorts of parameters are avaiable.

 

Wow, so the short-range ensemble mean shows at least 4 inches of snow for Seattle.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20140227&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=SEA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=9&mLAT=47.52698757196143&mLON=-121.97388133295476&mTYP=roadmap

[bainbridgekid]

00z GFS is really nice.

 

4" for Seattle and 8" for Bellingham and a foot for Vancouver, BC Saturday night-Sunday evening. Even gives Olympia 3".

 

Not believing it yet but it's still great news. Hopefully the WRF looks good.

[jaya]

Wow, so the short-range ensemble mean shows at least 4 inches of snow for Seattle.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20140227&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=SEA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=9&mLAT=47.52698757196143&mLON=-121.97388133295476&mTYP=roadmap

Yeah.  But that is a different set of models (ARW, NMM - both are high res WRF models) and NMB (not heard of that but it always looks a bit cold).  The new Operational GFS would indicate 2-4 inches for Seattle as well. 

[catnip]

00z GFS is really nice.

 

4" for Seattle and 8" for Bellingham Saturday night-Sunday evening. Even gives Olympia 3".

 

Not believing it for the Central Sound yet but it's still great news. Hopefully the WRF looks good.

A nice improvement for sure. There is still a lot of cold air in Southern BC early in the week.

[TT-SEA]

00z GFS is really nice.

 

4" for Seattle and 8" for Bellingham Saturday night-Sunday evening. Even gives Olympia 3".

 

Not believing it for the Central Sound yet but it's still great news. Hopefully the WRF looks good.

 

 

That is a classic slop-transition event though... by Monday morning its 40 degrees and raining. 

 

So different than what was shown a couple days ago... or even yesterday.

[bainbridgekid]

That is a classic slop-transition event though... by Monday morning its 40 degrees and raining. 

 

So different than what was shown a couple days ago... or even yesterday.

It's March dude.

 

We'll take what we can get.

[Parksvillewx]

00z GFS is really nice.

 

4" for Seattle and 8" for Bellingham and a foot for Vancouver, BC Saturday night-Sunday evening. Even gives Olympia 3".

 

Not believing it yet but it's still great news. Hopefully the WRF looks good.

 

Wow, that'd be nice.

[BLI snowman]

That is a classic slop-transition event though... by Monday morning its 40 degrees and raining. 

 

So different than what was shown a couple days ago... or even yesterday.

 

We've had snowcover for 4 days now, I can live with a slop transition realistically.

 

Another snowstorm would cement this as a great winter up here.

[TT-SEA]

It's March dude.

 

We'll take what we can get.

 

 

Whatever.

 

I hate that thinking.     

 

Might be decent for a longer time in Bellingham.   

[pscz1140]

Yeah.  But that is a different set of models (ARW, NMM - both are high res WRF models) and NMB (not heard of that but it always looks a bit cold).  The new Operational GFS would indicate 2-4 inches for Seattle as well. 

 

Thanks a lot for the info.

 

The mean surface temp at SEA drops below 20 degrees on that model set, which would be quite surprising.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20140227&RT=21&PRM=3hrly-TMP&SID=SEA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=9&mLAT=47.52698757196143&mLON=-121.97388133295476&mTYP=roadmap

[GHweatherChris]

Whatever.

 

I hate that thinking.     

 

Might be decent for a longer time in Bellingham.   

You are a ****.  How did you get married.

 

Although, it shows nothing here so I could care less what happened either.

[brody]

You are a ****.  How did you get married.

 

Although, it shows nothing here so I could care less what happened either.

I could say so much in response to this post but I'll just sigh and move on 

[TT-SEA]

I could say so much in response to this post but I'll just sigh and move on 

 

 

Good idea.

[GHweatherChris]

Good idea.

We already know you can't stand snow past Christmas so keep it shut.  90 percent of us will always hang onto every hope until the hope is gone, we don't need your to remind us it is not important.

 

I am a weather fanatic, lets stretch the snow chances and during summer lets get as hot as possible.  But I will never ***** about either, because I am a true weather geek.

[GHweatherChris]

I could say so much in response to this post but I'll just sigh and move on 

You could at least like the post, unless for some reason you agree with Tim.

[bainbridgekid]

WRF is still basically totally dry for all of Western Washington through hour 60 (4AM Sunday.)

 

GFS looked like this at that point:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/20140228/00/gfs_namer_060_1000_500_thick_s.gif

 

Weird.

[TT-SEA]

You could at least like the post, unless for some reason you agree with Tim.

 

Relax.

 

You are really aggressive on here lately.     For the last couple months really.   Hopefully everything is OK there.

[Phil]

I know you allegedly have more extensive knowledge than all of us..

Whoever told you that is wrong.

 

GEFS very likely colder due to poorer resolution. I do get nervous though when I see the op so far an outlier. I've seen the op fail miserably in the past with the ensemble mean winning - even in the shorter term. We will see. The 18Z NAM was still cold (it shouldn't be because of its resolution). The operational 00z NAM now looks even colder and looks like some snow Sat and even more Sat night and Sun morning. The Nam is full bore cold-snow looking for the entire Seattle metro area. Bellingham and folks up north should do well on the way out of this one the way it looks at this point. Things can change, but it is weird that the nam is the consistent cold model with over -20 mb thru the Fraser and lots of cold air spilling over the Cascades.

Thanks, I value your input greatly. I'm personally weary of using the NAM outside 24hrs..it has failed me so many times.

 

Phil, what do you think of my prediction of a multi-year Nina beginning in 2015-16?

I haven't really looked into 2015-16 yet. I use the Solar/QBO/SAO method to predict the shifts in tropical circulation/convection that precede an ENSO event. I didn't invent the theory, rather it's already in the peer reviewed literature.

 

This method accurately predicted the demise of the 2012-13 Niño attempt, and the brief La Niña conditions right now. For 2014-15 it's predicting a weak or moderate El Niño, with either an early peak or double peak.