February 2014 in the PNW

[Jesse]

00z NAM pretty dry north of Eugene.

 

[TT-SEA]

The Euro showed about .08 water equivalent for this area.  With snow to water ratios almost certain to be 20 to 1 or better that is an inch and a half of snow.  I hope tonight's 0z models lend some support to the solution.  Looking at current sat pics it's not out of the question.

 

 

If the ECMWF shows it... it will happen.

 

Unfortunately... the weekend now looks almost totally dry.

[Black Hole]

A few comments earlier were somewhat mean spirited. Lets try and keep it civil and enjoy this for what it is. I wish everyone well with the snowfall! I will make an outlook later for tomorrows storm if I can get the time.

[TT-SEA]

You made it very clear there would be no 32 or below highs with this.  I seem to remember a lot of talk about 36 for today.

 

 

I did not ever say that.   Ever.   I said 30-35 for today on many occasions for the parade.   It was 32 at BFI. 

 

You make this stuff up.

 

My official forecast in the contest was based entirely on the GFS MOS extended run from this past weekend.   No thought other than copying numbers.

 

The GFS MOS turned colder after the contest closed.

[Weather101]

First post on here...the 00z NAM is more or less dry north of SLE through 21z Friday:

http://i.imgur.com/CpzvGX3.gif

Very light flurries at best

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I figured you would like that.  It's down to 19 here now.  For this area to have an east wind as cold as the gorge is pretty impressive.

That air is making it over here. It is now 20 and was just 22 a few mins ago. This is cold.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I have two neighbors that had palms which died in Nov 2010.  Other than that I haven't seen any up here.

 

I have two palm trees at my house.  We cut them back all the way and thought I killed both of them.  They grew back.

[HighlandExperience]

I wish we would freeze out some of those palm trees people are growing around here, I really hate those things.

 

Yup I hate those things yuck!! This is not California!  Lets hope for a good run tonight!

[snow_wizard]

If the ECMWF shows it... it will happen.

 

Unfortunately... the weekend now looks almost totally dry.

 

I'm a little bit worried the 18z NAM doesn't show anything up here.  The 18z GFS was good for Saturday night.  A lot of uncertainty right now.  It does appear the cold temps will last through Sunday night now.

[TT-SEA]

I have two palm trees at my house.  We cut them back all the way and thought I killed both of them.  They grew back.

 

My office has palm trees across street... many of them.

 

And they are doing great.    

[TT-SEA]

I'm a little bit worried the 18z NAM doesn't show anything up here.  The 18z GFS was good for Saturday night.  A lot of uncertainty right now.  It does appear the cold temps will last through Sunday night now.

 

Yeah... the good news is that there is no warm push now either.

[snow_wizard]

That air is making it over here. It is now 20 and was just 22 a few mins ago. This is cold.

 

I had to do a double take when I looked at the thermometer when I got home this evening.  At least the cold aspect of this event is living up to expectations...if not exceeding.  If the wind dies late tonight single digits would be a given.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I have both fire places working and I'm still cold.  Currently 23 at my house.

[snow_wizard]

My office has palm trees across street... many of them.

 

And they are doing great.    

 

I think the dry / cold east wind is what does them in up here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

My office has palm trees across street... many of them.

 

And they are doing great.    

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I have both fire places working and I'm still cold.  Currently 23 at my house.

We only have wood heat and I called my wife to ask here how warm the house was. 78. I burn maple when it's cold like this.

[FroYoBro]

The NAM is boring for Northern Oregon. Hopefully it's wrong.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

We only have wood heat and I called my wife to ask here how warm the house was. 78. I burn maple when it's cold like this.

That will  keep you warm!  I have a fireplace insert, along with a fake fireplace from Home Depot--just a fancy space heater.  I have the regular heat set on 66--drives my wife nuts because I keep it cold.  I just tell her to put on a sweater.

[TT-SEA]

I think the dry / cold east wind is what does them in up here.

 

Probably.

 

These are in Tukwila... them seem to do great around there.    They are all over the place. 

 

The Harley dealership on Lind has about 200 of them.  

[HighlandExperience]

I'm a little bit worried the 18z NAM doesn't show anything up here.  The 18z GFS was good for Saturday night.  A lot of uncertainty right now.  It does appear the cold temps will last through Sunday night now.

 

Is the NAM out to lunch?

[BLI snowman]

00z NAM kind of just sucks for everyone. Even Eugene gets a lot less on this run.

[Jesse]

00z NAM kind of just sucks for everyone. Even Eugene gets a lot less on this run.

 

Do you think it's on crack?

[Perturbed Member]

The NAM basically tells everyone except Eugene to go f**k themselves. 

[TT-SEA]

Wow... this is what Sunday looks like now???

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif

[FroYoBro]

I'm just going to say that the NAM is wrong because I don't like that run. 

[Jesse]

Wow... this is what Sunday looks like now???

 

Are we just going to stay cold?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Wow... this is what Sunday looks like now???

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif

Awesome!!!  <_>

[BLI snowman]

Do you think it's on crack?

 

Probably underdoing things, but either way it's swung back towards the MM5 in a big way. Usually it's the opposite with those two models, so that might actually bode well for Portland and Seattle.

[seattleweatherguy]

It is going to snow in Seattle tomorrow night??

 

ECMWF says it will.

How much can you show me please.

[snow_wizard]

I hope the NAM is just having a brain fart or something.

[snow_wizard]

How much can you show me please.

 

It showed about an inch for area between Tacoma and Seattle.  Less further north.

[TT-SEA]

Are we just going to stay cold?

 

So it appears.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

This is a rather boring forecast.  Looks a lot like our past 6 weeks or so.

 

http://www.weather-it-is-israel.com/

[snow_wizard]

Probably.

 

These are in Tukwila... them seem to do great around there.    They are all over the place. 

 

The Harley dealership on Lind has about 200 of them.  

 

Tukwila sucks.

[Jesse]

The low isn't even that far out. Can't we just start tracking it in real time at this point?

[TT-SEA]

Tukwila sucks.

 

They are all over Bellevue/Kirkland as well. 

[HighlandExperience]

They are all over Bellevue/Kirkland as well. 

 

Yup at stupid car dealerships. 

[snow_wizard]

Holy crap!  SEA is already down to 23.  I don't know if the east wind is overcoming whatever their problem has been or whether they got a new sensor or what, but they seem to be doing ok with this cold snap compared to the December one.

[TT-SEA]

Yup at stupid car dealerships. 

 

Along Lake Washington Blvd as well... and in downtown Bellevue.

[Phil]

Dramatic ENSO cooling as of late due to the strengthening Walker Cell:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.2.3.2014.gif