February 2014 in the PNW

[Weather101]

Holy crap... total precip from tomorrow afternoon through late Saturday night.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_081_precip_p60.gif

 

 

Amazing gradient. Is that like 25 inches of snow in Salem and Eugene?

If only this trends north.. Amazing

[TT-SEA]

Yeah. In all honestly I don't think the extreme nature of the arctic air over Northern Oregon and Washington would physically allow the low itself to track in any farther north than Eugene.

 

Like Dewey and bb-kid were saying earlier today, this thing busting warm and wet for anyone north of Roseburg is off the table at this point. The only bust would be dry and cold.

 

 

I agree... this is a different set-up and I think there is a limit to the northward trend this time.

[Deweydog]

My feeling is that the Saturday system will trend a bit north too, just a gut feeling though.

 

One thing people need to keep in mind is the tendency for things to "trend" north is a detail-specific phenomenon.  Doesn't mean it won't happen, but this situation is missing most, if not all the variables one would expect to cause models to tend to flub up trajectories.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not surprising a bunch of California yuppies would plant palms.  We just need a good old fashioned January to take care of it.  This cold snap will probably take out a few.

I ******* hate those trees up here in this part of the world. I hope they all die.

[Weather101]

One thing people need to keep in mind is the tendency for things to "trend" north is a detail-specific phenomenon. Doesn't mean it won't happen, but this situation is missing most, if not all, the variables cause models to tend to flub up trajectories.

But it can still budge a bit north Saturday still? Would be perfect

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Horse Creek which is 7 miles east of me is already down to 8. Wanderer's Peak to my NE is down to -1. 22 PDX, 23 Silverton, 24 SLE. DP's in the single digits. Hard to imagine it getting out of the 20s tomorrow anywhere north of Albany.

[snow_wizard]

Big time.

 

They won't even be able to get in and out of Salem or Eugene.   Literally.

 

Are there any historical examples of this type of extreme gradient from our weather history experts?

 

Jan 1930, Dec 1919

[TT-SEA]

I ******* hate those trees up here in this part of the world. I hope they all die.

 

 

I think we got it now.

 

We are talking about an epic event in Oregon.   Not the landscaping choice of people in Kirkland.  

 

That was a topic when the NAM was coming out and showing nothing for anyone.

[Deweydog]

But it can still budge a bit north Saturday still? Would be perfect

 

Nothing says it can't, but at this point the message is the westerlies simply don't have all that much punch.  Most of the moisture for the weekend is still associated with what will essentially be a stalled/weakening Arctic front somewhere over Oregon.  The aggressive warm advection idea has put shelved for now.  

[FroYoBro]

Horse Creek which is 7 miles east of me is already down to 8. Wanderer's Peak to my NE is down to -1. 22 PDX, 23 Silverton, 24 SLE. DP's in the single digits. Hard to imagine it getting out of the 20s tomorrow anywhere north of Albany.

No way PDX gets out of the 20's. Hopefully it is due to snow fall rather than cloud cover. 

[Jesse]

I'm wondering if they'll cancel school out here tomorrow. Just based on the forecast.

 

They did that once last year when we were under a WSW. Only that time it busted.

[Snow]

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/02/03/article-1353073-0D05AC73000005DC-310_964x611.jpg

[snow_wizard]

One thing people need to keep in mind is the tendency for things to "trend" north is a detail-specific phenomenon.  Doesn't mean it won't happen, but this situation is missing most, if not all the variables one would expect to cause models to tend to flub up trajectories.  

 

Even if the lows track as the GFS shows, the normal model tendency is to not push moisture far enough north in cases like this.  This will be interesting to watch.  I will say this GFS solution makes the 12z ECMWF solution seem a lot more possible.

[Deweydog]

So odd to have a two degree separation between PDX and The Dalles at this stage of an event like this...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If the EURO agrees I bet the Winter Storm watch is upgraded to a warning for at least the south and central valley.

[TT-SEA]

Even if the lows track as the GFS shows, the normal model tendency is to not push moisture far enough north in cases like this.  This will be interesting to watch.  I will say this GFS solution makes the 12z ECMWF solution seem a lot more possible.

 

Also agrees with the ECMWF on a dry weekend for us up here as well.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene is cloudy and 28 with a dp of 14 and a N wind gusting to 26mph.

[snow_wizard]

No question it would be a serious bummer for people in the north half of Western WA if the GFS were to verify verbatim.  To come that close and strike out hurts.

[Bodhijr]

PDX GETS OBLITERATED! The public doesn't know what's about to hit them!

I hope so! We have been patient.

[Weather101]

No question it would be a serious bummer for people in the north half of Western WA if the GFS were to verify verbatim. To come that close and strike out hurts.

Yah....

[TT-SEA]

WRF says its sunny up here tomorrow:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/intcld.24.0000.gif

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

At least a couple of us here will die a painful death from cancer.

 

Thats not funny.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I think before the end of the weekend, we're going to see some goodies up here.  As confused as the models are, I wouldn't be surprised to see something new locked on for Saturday/Sunday.

 

Also, there's a potential reload starting around President's day.

[brody]

Water Vapor Loop looks interesting.... Very volatile pattern evolving.

Not sure what you're seeing Rob?

[TT-SEA]

Eugene is cloudy and 28 with a dp of 14 and a N wind gusting to 26mph.

 

 

Would precip be snow or rain with those conditions??   

[Parksvillewx]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/gfssnow.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the arctic boundary is somewhere just south of Roseburg, OR. Their dp has now dropped to 22.

[TT-SEA]

Thats not funny.

 

He didn't say it was funny... but its true.   

[Skagit Weather]

This really sucks. Can't we just get an inch of snow before we warm up again? NW WA has done terrible this winter other than the short snow to rain transition in December. Even tonight the lows are not able to cool down. Still 25F here, 24F around Arlington, and 24F in Bellingham.

[FroYoBro]

The WRF shows precipitation forming in the southern Cascades just a few hours from now. We can almost start watching the radar to see this thing unfold. 

[TT-SEA]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/gfssnow.jpg

 

 

Probably been asked before... but are these maps available to the public?

[East Dubzz]

Probably been asked before... but are these maps available to the public?

No, WeatherBell costs some money.

[Parksvillewx]

Probably been asked before... but are these maps available to the public?

 

They're from a pay site.

[TT-SEA]

I think before the end of the weekend, we're going to see some goodies up here.  As confused as the models are, I wouldn't be surprised to see something new locked on for Saturday/Sunday.

 

Also, there's a potential reload starting around President's day.

 

I agree... the weekend is far from decided.   Things could do another dramatic change.

[HighlandExperience]

This really sucks. Can't we just get an inch of snow before we warm up again? NW WA has done terrible this winter other than the short snow to rain transition in December. Even tonight the lows are not able to cool down. Still 25F here, 24F around Arlington, and 24F in Bellingham.

Ya this really blows for us.

[Skagit Weather]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/gfssnow.jpg

Washington and B.C.:

Oregon:

[TT-SEA]

Through Friday morning at 4am

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/snow24.36.0000.gif

[Perturbed Member]

I'm a bit nervous about the WRF-GFS. Shows the precip missing Portland entirely tomorrow, just barely. It was still a huge improvement over the 12z run but still.I hope this low spreads precip much further north than predicted. 

[Skagit Weather]

Come on ECMWF! Toss a few showers up here over the weekend.

[brody]

Washington and B.C.:

Oregon:

Yea, the ENTIRE state of Oregon

 

F.O.L's