February 2014 in the PNW

[Weather101]

The fact the low keeps trending north . The fact just 3-4 days ago no one really expected this. The fact the models are still having trouble 24 hrs out gives me hope that this weekend I will see snow all the way up here and the models will give us all a huge snowstorm! Still time for the models too change!!

[Deweydog]

Makes sense, but most of the models have been trending north now for several runs. Does't that mean anything?

 

Of course it does.  But we're talking about a pretty narrow corridor here.  Salem/Eugene are pretty much assured an impactful event, but further north remains at least a moderate question mark.  The Euro says f*** you to anyone with questions, as does the GFS at least for now to some degree, but there's still some doubt both from a model perspective and on the ground with respects to a very cold and DRY air mass in place.  Just gonna have to sit back and watch it unfold.  I'm glad I don't have to worry about anything but picking up the kids from school if the s*** starts flying and martial law is declared.  

[Deweydog]

Midnight temps

 

PDX - 21

SLE - 23

EUG - 24

 

What do you all think for highs today?

 

28 at PDX if we don't see moderate/heavy precip.  25 or 26 if we do.  

 

Might be one of those tough calls though as temps might hang around the highs well into the night.  

[Tyler Mode]

I usually archive the forecasts from KPTV, KGW, KATU and KOIN, but just did KPTV this time.  Still, two days ago, none of this was in the forecast.

 

28 and sunny for Thursday and 30 and sunny for Friday.

The fact the low keeps trending north . The fact just 3-4 days ago no one really expected this. The fact the models are still having trouble 24 hrs out gives me hope that this weekend I will see snow all the way up here and the models will give us all a huge snowstorm! Still time for the models too change!!

[Weather101]

I usually archive the forecasts from KPTV, KGW, KATU and KOIN, but just did KPTV this time. Still, two days ago, none of this was in the forecast.

 

28 and sunny for Thursday and 30 and sunny for Friday.

So true same with other weather outlets. Gives me hope this weekend will surprise everyone

[Deweydog]

Well, for what it's worth the NAM made a jog to the north.  Nothing groundbreaking, but noticeable.  

[BLI snowman]

Midnight temps

 

PDX - 21

SLE - 23

EUG - 24

 

What do you all think for highs today?

 

PDX- 25

SLE- 27

EUG- 26

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't know that the northern trend on the NAM is really sufficient enough to give someone from say Seattle much hope...

[Deweydog]

Pretty incredible how benign Saturday into Sunday is now looking.  The strangle hold of winter 2013-14 continues...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4pm Saturday afternoon. -6C line just north of PDX, -3C line around SLE...Certainly no thaw yet.

[Deweydog]

Pretty respectable 11/-1 at Spokane yesterday.  

[BLI snowman]

4pm Saturday afternoon. -6C line just north of PDX, -3C line around SLE...Certainly no thaw yet.

 

 

06Z NAM gives NW OR light snow on Sunday even. This thing keeps getting extended.

[Perturbed Member]

Of course it does.  But we're talking about a pretty narrow corridor here.  Salem/Eugene are pretty much assured an impactful event, but further north remains at least a moderate question mark.  The Euro says f*** you to anyone with questions, as does the GFS at least for now to some degree, but there's still some doubt both from a model perspective and on the ground with respects to a very cold and DRY air mass in place.  Just gonna have to sit back and watch it unfold.  I'm glad I don't have to worry about anything but picking up the kids from school if the s*** starts flying and martial law is declared.  

It's so unusual that with less than 24 hrs to go, there is still a non-trivial amount of model disagreement. I was hoping by this time we could say with very high certainty what will happen north of SLE. I'm pretty confident PDX will see at least 1-2 inches but only thing holding me back a bit is some of the stubborn crap like the NAM, MM5, WRF and HRRR that seem to refuse to come into agreement with Euro/GFS/GEM.

[Deweydog]

It's so unusual that with less than 24 hrs to go, there is still a non-trivial amount of model disagreement. I was hoping by this time we could say with very high certainty what will happen north of SLE. I'm pretty confident PDX will see at least 1-2 inches but only thing holding me back a bit is some of the stubborn crap like the NAM, MM5, WRF and HRRR that seem to refuse to come into agreement with Euro/GFS/GEM.

 

If it were easy it wouldn't be any fun.  

[Weather101]

19F as of 1 am here

[Perturbed Member]

If it were easy it wouldn't be any fun.  

Fair enough, but you know how this place looks when a bunch of people are expecting snow and it busts. 

 

Several reports from Eugene of flurries and light snow. 

[Deweydog]

Flurrypalooza about to commence in Corvallis.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm, 6z NCEP/NWS Pacific Surface Analysis

 

This seems to track the low just south of North Bend. We'll have to see how that jives with the 6z GFS which runs in about 4 minutes. I'd like the low slightly further north myself.

 

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/P_sfc_full_ocean.jpg
 

[Weather101]

Hmmm, 6z NCEP/NWS Pacific Surface Analysis

 

This seems to track the low just south of North Bend. We'll have to see how that jives with the 6z GFS which runs in about 4 minutes. I'd like the low slightly further north myself.

 

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/P_sfc_full_ocean.jpg

Hmm interesting

[Perturbed Member]

For reference, here is what the 00z GFS showed...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_024_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[Deweydog]

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=tfx&sid=gfa&num=48

 

Sweater weather.  

[Deweydog]

It's quite obvious where the difference lies, at least between the NAM and GFS.  Just look at 0 hour on the 6z for both.  NAM initializes everything slightly further south/colder.  

[Perturbed Member]

06z GFS at the same period

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_018_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[Deweydog]

It's quite obvious where the difference lies, at least between the NAM and GFS.  Just look at 0 hour on the 6z for both.  NAM initializes everything slightly further south/colder.  

 

And indeed, the 6z will make Portlanders happy campers.  

[Perturbed Member]

Good to see the GFS holding its ground while the NAM has been trending north.

[peregrinator]

6-12 inches throughout the Willamette Valley for tomorrow's storm if the GFS is correct.

http://i.imgur.com/EQlOs3p.gif

[bainbridgekid]

6z looks great for Portland. Slightly North of the 00z.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/20140206/06/gfs_namer_018_1000_500_thick_s.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

BOOM!

[Gradient Keeper]

Another 3-6" Saturday, more SLE-EUG.. low tracks inland to the south not moderating PDX much if any Saturday.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow then more Saturday evening-night.. 6-12".... and then .50 to 1" of freezing rain.... Sunday

[Gradient Keeper]

Holy in a sock!

[peregrinator]

Looks like around 1-1.50" of QPF falls as snow in the Portland area on this run, with at least 0.10-0.25" of ice between 72h and 81h. Also, text output has been showing temperatures of -10 to -15 degrees Celsius at 700-750mb tomorrow, which bodes well for some nice ratios if the wind isn't too strong.

[Shadow]

5.2 here as I wake up and add wood to the stove. About 5 hours to get below the zero.

[Gradient Keeper]

NWS may need to update the Winter Storm Warning SOON to increase snow totals SLE-PDX.

[Weather101]

NWS may need to update the Winter Storm Warning SOON to increase snow totals SLE-PDX.

SLE

Stands for what city ?

[Gradient Keeper]

SLE

Stands for what city ?

Sorry. SLE - Salem

[Weather101]

Sorry. SLE - Salem

That's what I thought! Nice !! Big storm for everyone down there! Hoping us up north can get in on something for the weekend

[Gradient Keeper]

We'll be colder here in Portland/Willamette Vallley and Gorge than expected Friday - Sunday assuming we do get widespread snow... I would think low/high temps will need to be adjusted downward. Models don't understand this.

[Gradient Keeper]

NWS upgrading Warning now 3-7" PDX metro... also expecting another significant snow event Friday and Saturday. There is a chance we do not moderate until Monday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

These are the NWS predicted storm totals through tonight...