February 4-5th Possible Major Winter Storm

[Tom]

Maybe not a monster bomb, but a widespread significant snowfall is still on the table.  I'm still thinking by tomorrows 12z and Sunday night 00z runs will tell the tale as system will be sampled better when it rides along the California coast into 4 corners region.

[The Snowman]

Liking what the NAM has to offer at hour 36...

[gosaints]

i am thinking that we are looking a foot or foot and a half.

Lol what?

[The Snowman]

Got a good feeling about this NAM run... Stronger SE ridge, energy digging a bit further south into MX at hour 45.

[Tom]

High Pressure in Canada is farther NW also...

[The Snowman]

Digging more at Hr 57

[DominicR]

Nice...

[Tom]

00z NAM staying course it looks like...

[Tom]

00z NAM thru 72HR...

 

[Tom]

Looking real good for N IL...6-12" thru 75HR

[The Snowman]

Precipitation swath north of 18z.

 

Good sign.

[Tom]

The defo band looks real healthy and wider than 18z, 00z run using better sampling this run...

[Tom]

00z NAM thru 78 HR...

 

[DominicR]

12+

[winterfreak]

I can only hope.

[DominicR]

NAM crushes Kansas-Chicago-Lansing. A nice swath of 6-12 inches with lollipop 12-15 inches ecp right along Lake here.

[gabel23]

00z NAM thru 78 HR...

I would be happy with this result. Great looking deformation band; other models not as impressive. Hopefully other models follow suit tonight....

[WBadgersW]

Wow very impressive run for Northern Il.

[DominicR]

Toss it out for now.

[winterfreak]

Actually much lower totals this run for me but looks good for NE Illinois again.

[The Snowman]

Toss it out for now.

Wouldn't necessarily toss it- I'd keep it in my back pocket, so to say... Who knows, could be on to something.

[tim the weatherman]

i like to see a map of this

[winterfreak]

Now we wait for the GFS.

[DominicR]

Believe for total today through Wed.

[DominicR]

 

Phil Schwarz ABC7

One storm leaves and another one approaches. Check out the snow totals by mid-week according to our Microcast model. I'll have the latest forecast and why I think these amounts are a bit high coming up on our 10pm news.

 

 

 

[Tom]

I really like the chances of 12"+ totals esp near the lake, even up to SE WI...thermal profiles look impressive and then the back end Lake Plume that can develop with this type of system.

[DominicR]

GFS not gonna budge lol

[Tom]

Man, 00z NAM takes a perfect track up from Texarkana and heads NNE towards S IL/S IN...that's an ominous storm track coming out of the Gulf.

[tim the weatherman]

there's a slight southward shift that the southren suburbs of chicago will get most snow.

[Tom]

Tammy Fox already talking about breaking the all time snow record of '78/'79...fits the pattern and when its locked in like it is, its hard to break it.  Something about this winter season tells me we will break it.

[Trinomial]

I really don't understand why the NAM is getting such a bad rap this year. It's really been handling many of the systems quite well compared to previous years. It even picked up on the southern trend on yesterdays 18z. I know it's not the best model far out, or in any case for that matter, but I feel it's done better than the GFS and EURO this year...Am I completely wrong?

[The Snowman]

I really don't understand why the NAM is getting such a bad rap this year. It's really been handling many of the systems quite well compared to previous years. It even picked up on the southern trend on yesterdays 18z. I know it's not the best model far out, or in any case for that matter, but I feel it's done better than the GFS and EURO this year...Am I completely wrong?

Nope- NAM has indeed had some pretty good moments this winter, including this morning.

 

However, that model is getting blasted with "Toss it" and "It's correcting back south" at the Accuwx forums, so what do I know?

[DominicR]

Top 3 Chicago snowiest seasons:

1. 80.6" - 1978/79
2. 71.2" - 1977/78
3. 59.9" - 1917/18

 

We should be able to make it by number 3 or close to it by end of week. Prehaps near 2 or pass it if these next 2 systems are big.

[Trinomial]

Nope- NAM has indeed had some pretty good moments this winter, including this morning.

 

However, that model is getting blasted with "Toss it" and "It's correcting back south" at the Accuwx forums, so what do I know?

It's constantly getting put aside...Even if it hit this track right on this far out, the next storm would be the same thing. From what I saw this winter(and I'm no meteorologist) it seems the NAM really has been the most accurate.

[DominicR]

ORD is at 52 now right?

[Tom]

ORD is at 52.8" officially...we may jump into 3rd by Wednesday.

[DominicR]

ORD is at 52.8" officially...we may jump into 3rd by Wednesday.

 

Maybe 2nd if it ends up being the big dog

[DominicR]

 

Tammy says 2 more 8-14 inches with total of 16-28 by Sun on top of what we have.

[Tom]

Tammy Fox just showed 24" area wide by next Sunday (without any potential LehS)...she's saying (2) 8"-14" storms this week!  Sign that up!

[tim the weatherman]

this is amazing snow totals by next week and tammie is right about this week that it is possible that we will have this snow totals.