NEJeremy Posted September 25, 2015 Report Share Posted September 25, 2015 Omaha airport ended up with a 3 day total of 7.41". I had just a bit over 5.5" of rain at my place. Quite the event and remarkably this is the 3rd event of 5-10" rain totals in the Omaha metro in the last 2 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 25, 2015 12z GFS and now the 12z GGEM are showing a pretty cold open to October and could be a stormy one. Let's see what the 12z Euro shows. I'd like to see a wound up storm system to develop somewhere in the central CONUS. If that should happen, you could really see some steep negative departures for the 1st week of October. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted September 25, 2015 Report Share Posted September 25, 2015 As it stands now it looks like the 3rd or 4th is when the cool down occurs after a very warm first couple days of october Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 25, 2015 Almost like clock work, the Alaskan Ridge is going to Pop during the 1st week in October just as the new LRC begins to form. I'm sure the CFSv2 is going to start seeing this pattern as the GFS/EURO Ensembles def heading towards that direction. I posted some maps a while ago using the SST analogs and they showed a high probability of colder weather in October. Looks like it is heading that way. It's fascinating watching all this play out and how the pieces of the puzzle come together. Nature can give us clues weeks, even months in advance. In any case, modeling also picking up on Arctic blocking in the longer range which means some serious chill may be on the way next month. The warmth has been fun while it lasted, time to get into Autumn mode. 12z GEFS Day 8... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015092512/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_33.pngDay 12...notice the trough developing underneath the ridge in the NE PAC. Doesn't that look familiar??? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015092512/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_45.png Hopefully that Pacific jet begins to energize and start sending some storm systems into the west coast. Let's see how the new LRC develops. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 26, 2015 Saw this one coming in AK...Record snows hit Fairbanks, AK yesterday... http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/record-snow-hits-fairbanks-alaska-the-6-snow-comes-2-5-months-earlier-than-the-first-half-foot-accumulation-last-season 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 27, 2015 Report Share Posted September 27, 2015 That's pretty wild to see that much snow in Fairbanks now. In the Brooks Range or in the mountains it would be more common for those types of accumulations, but in the valley that's impressive. Last three days have basically been a carbon copy of each other. Few clouds, some early morning fog and mostly sunny the rest of the day. High of 70° today. Forecasted highs starting Tuesday are all in the 60s now. Starting to smell like fall now with some dead leaves sitting on the ground. Overall temperature for the month sitting at 66.7°. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 27, 2015 Report Share Posted September 27, 2015 GFS says highs near 60 on Wednesday. Cold front later tomorrow looks to pack a punch. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 28, 2015 Report Share Posted September 28, 2015 About a third of the moon eclipsed now. Clearing was timed perfect this evening. Several households nearby watching it. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 28, 2015 Report Share Posted September 28, 2015 This may be the last day of the year that we see 80 degrees. 60s forecasted for the next 7 days. Clouds and showers are moving in with the cold front. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted September 28, 2015 Report Share Posted September 28, 2015 You never know. 80 might be tough thoughhttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015092812/gfs_T850_us_44.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 28, 2015 Finally back from vacation, it was quite the grueling trip there and back with the Seadoo's...never again... It was pretty fun though rippin' through the Canyon's and bay's in the calm waters. It was 100F or higher 7 out of the 11 days I was there. I can't wait for more typical Fall weather...burnt out is an under statement. The 1st pic below was done on Canyon Lake, AZ...the other was on the boat ramp at Lake Pleasant, AZ. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted September 29, 2015 Report Share Posted September 29, 2015 Finally back from vacation, it was quite the grueling trip there and back with the Seadoo's...never again... It was pretty fun though rippin' through the Canyon's and bay's in the calm waters. It was 100F or higher 7 out of the 11 days I was there. I can't wait for more typical Fall weather...burnt out is an under statement. The 1st pic below was done on Canyon Lake, AZ...the other was on the boat ramp at Lake Pleasant, AZ.Looks fun tom!! Now you can get back to the norm and get ready for postseason Cubs baseball!! Go Cubs go!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 29, 2015 About a third of the moon eclipsed now. Clearing was timed perfect this evening.Several households nearby watching it. On the drive back home from AZ on Hwy 40, I saw the Eclipse from start to finish in NM under clear, dark skies...it was an eary site to see actually in the middle of nowhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 29, 2015 Looks fun tom!! Now you can get back to the norm and get ready for postseason Cubs baseball!! Go Cubs go!!!I still can't believe they clinched a Playoff birth....what's even more wild is the Hawks have their Home Opener on the 7th and raise their 2015 Championship banner the same day the Cubbies play. Chitown will be rocking for sure! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted September 29, 2015 Report Share Posted September 29, 2015 Really felt the cold front move through. 66 at 7:30am 59 at 11:30am Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 29, 2015 Report Share Posted September 29, 2015 Frost/Freeze advisories/warnings posted for tonight for parts of WI/MN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 30, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2015 Arctic temps have popped above normal....http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2015.png correlation to the warming happening at 30mb... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 30, 2015 Author Report Share Posted September 30, 2015 Fairbanks, AK continues to get smoked....2nd big Winter storm in less than a week! Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK214 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015AKZ222-301400-/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0020.000000T0000Z-150930T1400Z/MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-INCLUDING...FAIRBANKS...FORT WAINWRIGHT...EIELSON AFB...ESTER...NORTH POLE...MOOSE CREEK...TWO RIVERS...FOX...CHATANIKA...CHENA HOT SPRINGS...SOURDOUGH CAMP214 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDTWEDNESDAY...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL6 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY.* SNOW...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL 2 TO 6 INCHES. STORM TOTAL 7 TO 14INCHES.* TIMING...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLYWEDNESDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...VISIBILITY MAY BE GREATLY REDUCED. TRAVEL ANDOUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT. YOU SHOULD BE PREPAREDFOR EXTREME WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA. Snow cover continues to blossom... http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 30, 2015 Report Share Posted September 30, 2015 Getting a bit chilly out there tonight. Been windy all day. What leaves that have fallen were blowing around. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 That's a wrap! September ended up being quite the warm month to say the least. It opened extremely warm through Labor Day weekend and stayed consistently warm throughout the month. The last couple days started the cooling trend but the month will end up being the 18th warmest. Here's a quote from Bill Snyder from WGN: Despite Wednesday chill, September-2015 likely to rank 18th warmest of past 145 yrs on record in Chicago, among warmest 12% since 1871 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 1, 2015 Report Share Posted October 1, 2015 Top 5 warmest for my CWA. http://www.weather.gov/gid/top10warm_September Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 2, 2015 Report Share Posted October 2, 2015 September was 3.77° above normal here with 4.78" of rain. Only significant cool stretch was the 9-13th. This was the 6th month in a row with more than 4" of rain! Extremes: 90°/46° Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 3, 2015 Report Share Posted October 3, 2015 Anyone have the US temp anomaly graphic for September? Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 4, 2015 Report Share Posted October 4, 2015 Anyone have the US temp anomaly graphic for September? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 6, 2015 Report Share Posted October 6, 2015 Thanks.... quite a toasty month. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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