Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Day 8 Swing and a miss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Day 8 850s 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Wow what an improvement! 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 This regime is still way too progressive. Vortex in NE-Canada and flat-topped Aleutian ridge ain’t gonna cut it. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 8 Swing and a miss Not exactly a miss. Nice clipper. I'll gladly take that at this point. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Big ridge is just too far west. This is far better than previous runs though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Just now, Phil said: This regime is still way too progressive. Vortex in NE-Canada and flat-topped Aleutian ridge ain’t gonna cut it. Things are just getting started. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 I like the improvements this run Day 4 to 7. It allows for optimism. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Big ridge is just too far west. This is far better than previous runs though. Much. The Pacific gets shut down. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Day 9'er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Things are just getting started. Maybe. Mid/late December has potential. Doesn’t mean it will be realized. There is a decent chance it could succeed, but also a number of ways for it to implode. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: I like the improvements this run Day 4 to 7. It allows for optimism. Agreed. I think I like it more than you, but you see why I like it. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Maybe. Mid/late December has potential. Doesn’t mean it will be realized, though. There is a decent chance it could succeed, but also a number of ways for it to implode. Fair enough. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Maybe. Mid/late December has potential. Doesn’t mean it will be realized, though. There is a decent chance it could succeed, but also a number of ways for it to implode. Of course. The same thing every Winter. 6z GFS in 2 hours 42 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Hopefully we can get an interesting zonal pattern going . 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Day 9 we have a weak NE gradient with a chilly air mass over us. Could be really chilly. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Things are just getting started. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Animation of actual 850mb temps. Note the migration of the gradient up in the Yukon. Going to be a challenge to push that south absent some -EPO component. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 OMG! High in the 30s for TWL on day 9. 2 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Day 10 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Not what I see when I close my eyes and envision a Pacific closed for business. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 No idea what the EPS will show, but it was nice to see the EURO tonight shake things up and to see the improvements begin at just Day 4. Who knows. C'MON!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Yup. Highs mid to upper 30s on this run on day 9. That's getting somewhere. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Not what I see when I close my eyes and envision a Pacific closed for business. That's why I posted the surface pressure map. That is pretty dead. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, Phil said: Maybe. Mid/late December has potential. Doesn’t mean it will be realized. There is a decent chance it could succeed, but also a number of ways for it to implode. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 10 That’s taking the 1999 route verbatim. +EPO w/ +NAM building. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Euro!!! 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 I call that a solid run. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Just now, Phil said: That’s taking the 1999 route verbatim. +EPO w/ +NAM building. I'm sure that has never happened in a good year. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Phil is certainly in the glass half empty camp right now. No matter how good something looks it's bad. We've now graduated from 2007 to the hideous 1999. Why not try for 1933? 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Just now, snow_wizard said: I'm sure that has never happened in a good year. For Andrew? Sure it has. Plenty of times. I’m gonna sign off. Don’t want to give you a stroke. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Just now, Phil said: For Andrew? Sure it has. Plenty of times. I’m gonna sign off. Don’t want to give you a stroke. That kind of pattern could deliver big time... not so much below 1000’. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Ya gotta believe! If you don't = no ridge merger! Ya gotta believe! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: For Andrew? Sure it has. Plenty of times. I’m gonna sign off. Don’t want to give you a stroke. I think you've kind of gone off the deep end on the doom and gloom this season. I just don't see it. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Phil is certainly in the glass half empty camp right now. No matter how good something looks it's bad. What can I say..I haven’t liked any of the pattern developments over the last 7-10 days. And I’m looking hard, from the tropics to the pole(s). Hope I’m wrong but I think the chances of a 1974/75, 2007/08, 1999/00 type winter are increasing exponentially. 2 1 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: That kind of pattern could deliver big time... not so much below 1000’. You will have your fun this winter and so will the rest of us. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: What can I say..I haven’t liked any of the pattern developments over the last 7-10 days. And I’m looking hard, from the tropics to the pole(s). Hope I’m wrong but I think the chances of a 1974/75, 2007/08, 1999/00 type winter are increasing exponentially. I still say it's way too early to put much stock in that. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: What can I say..I haven’t liked any of the pattern developments over the last 7-10 days. And I’m looking hard, from the tropics to the pole(s). Hope I’m wrong but I think the chances of a 1974/75, 2007/08, 1999/00 type winter are increasing exponentially. 2/3 are good here and probably horrible for many posters in Western Washington and Western Oregon. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 The SPV also looks to remain strong for the foreseeable future (with a pattern that will inhibit +WAFz). Could strengthen even more next month..any SSW signal on seasonal/subseasonal LR guidance has disappeared. Also the subtropical stratosphere is on fire. Warmest ever observed for a non-volcanic year. Another factor that favors +NAM (thermal wind laws, etc). I’d said earlier in the autumn that I thought early season amplification would be crucial to the midwinter evolution. Well..we likely have the strongest (S/O/N trimonthly avg) +EPO on record. Pretty much a worst case outcome. Nothing is impossible and there are plenty of ways (and plenty of time) to turn things around, but I don’t see it (yet). 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.