Tom Posted October 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 RPM model showed wrap around snow showers late Wednesday night not far from here and points north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 00z NAM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 Cold dense fog in Rapid City right now. 43° and damp.Your area might be the first to get some true wintry weather next week. Looking forward to seeing some snow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 27, 2015 Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 This system is looking more dynamic by the model run. Last NAM run deepening the low even further. By the looks of it, the first trace of snow in southern WI will fall and even possibly here. Another frosty morning today ~ low of 35°. Looking forward to this storm - we need a change! 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 27, 2015 Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 DMX talking possible snow showers wednesday night. If the colder air can get here sooner then its possible but idk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 27, 2015 Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 DMX talking possible snow showers wednesday night. If the colder air can get here sooner then its possible but idk.Hopefully you folks up there get to see some flakes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 From LOT: WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PROBABLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...THECOLD FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALONGAND NEAR IT BASED ON UNSTABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GIVEN THE RAPIDCOOLING IN THE SHALLOW BUT CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS...IT ISPOSSIBLE TO HAVE GRAUPEL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT AFTERNOON.WRAPAROUND DEFORMATION WITH THE FULLY DEVELOPED CYCLONE LATEWEDNESDAY NIGHT IS LIKELY TO SEND SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREAFOR THURSDAY...AND THIS IS WHERE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLESCOULD BE SEEN THURSDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OFSOME FLURRIES TOWARD ROCKFORD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 Tracking this Autumn storm and seeing it go through cyclogenesis over the next 24-36 hours is getting me amped up for the wintry systems this season! Rains knocking on our doorstep here in N IL... http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20151027.1551.gif Should be a rather windy/raw day later this afternoon into tomorrow. Hope there are some flakes of snow late tomorrow night, if not, may not get our first flakes till sometime in November. Average day for first flakes is Oct 31st for ORD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 27, 2015 Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 Yeah this system is interesting. Gonna be fun to track when the LRC recycles. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 Saw this post from JB on Wx Bell on the Brazilian Meteogram... http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Screen_Shot_2015_10_27_at_12_20_51_PM.png Couple things to point out for November. I see the GFS/CFSv2/Brazilian/Euro all pointing to a sharp cool down after the 7th for about 4-5 days. Then we may see a pull back before the arctic air reloads sometime before Thanksgiving week and that is when Winter may be out of the Gates running. The Euro Weeklies pretty much agree to some degree to the above chart from the Brazilian. I've been watching each run of the CFSv2 and it to has been showing the stormy/cold last 10 days or so of November, which the Brazilian is seeing, as well as the Euro weeklies. It's interesting most models are starting to hint at some interesting weather down the road. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted October 27, 2015 Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 We haven't even made it to freezing yet this year, although tomorrow night we may do it. It's supposed to stay pretty breezy though so I'm not sure if we will make it. This has probably been the best the fall foliage has been in quite a long time from what I can remember. It's been perfect conditions: temps and moisture and not a lot of windy days either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 Latest CFSv2 run thru November 7th-29th has only 4 or 5 days where the 850's near Chicago are above 0C. Most of them avg -2/-4C, some even colder, especially later in the month towards Thanksgiving week. Systems galor for central CONUS. Not many wrapped up systems along the East Coast, mainly targeting the central states. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 27, 2015 Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 Latest CFSv2 run thru November 7th-29th has only 4 or 5 days where the 850's near Chicago are above 0C. Most of them avg -2/-4C, some even colder, especially later in the month towards Thanksgiving week. Systems galor for central CONUS. Not many wrapped up systems along the East Coast, mainly targeting the central states.Will be closer to end of November I think before much cold air can get all the way across Oklahoma. I love all the hints I'm seeing out of the pattern for my area though. That meteogram that you posted is a heck of a lot snowier than the last one I saw for Chicago and it was pretty snowy also. I keep wanting to hurry things along but I'm reminding myself that November isn't a winter month. Lol. No need to waste arctic air this early. December will be just fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 It would be awesome to see somewhat of a November 1977 start to the cold season and never let off the gas peddle.Here's a link that shows the weather history from November 1st - Dec 31st... http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KMDW/1977/11/1/CustomHistory.html?dayend=31&monthend=12&yearend=1977&req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo= The way November started off in 1977 is very similar to where the models are heading. Notice the very warm 60's/70's the first 5 days, then a steady down turn in temps, esp after the 9th...then a pull back, before the bottom drops later in the month around Thanksgiving week. Lot's of snow events that month as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 Will be closer to end of November I think before much cold air can get all the way across Oklahoma. I love all the hints I'm seeing out of the pattern for my area though. That meteogram that you posted is a heck of a lot snowier than the last one I saw for Chicago and it was pretty snowy also. I keep wanting to hurry things along but I'm reminding myself that November isn't a winter month. Lol. No need to waste arctic air this early. December will be just fine.Check out this link for the CFSv2 model...it comes in 4x/day, a lot better than the one I gave you before: http://www.weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Click on the CFSv2 tab, then on the left side of the screen you can adjust parameters accordingly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 27, 2015 Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 Check out this link for the CFSv2 model...it comes in 4x/day, a lot better than the one I gave you before: http://www.weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Click on the CFSv2 tab, then on the left side of the screen you can adjust parameters accordingly.Awesome! Thank you! We'll trade links. Lol. I found the Brazilian meteograms link. http://previsaonumerica.cptec.inpe.br/~rpnum/meteogramas/meteo_acopladot062.shtml 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 27, 2015 Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 Thank you again for all of the resources. I've been studying the daily weather maps for Oct and November 1977 for a couple of days now also. The similarities to what has happened and what the models are all showing are pretty awesome. My hunting season looks crazy this year. :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 27, 2015 Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 Man, that storm showing up late next week/weekend has a lot of potential but that massive H just destroys it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 28, 2015 Report Share Posted October 28, 2015 Nice to hear a soaking rain outside finally. High of 56° today - cloudy pretty much the entire day. On the topic of El Niño autumn's. I looked back at October of 1997, it started off really warm (first 9 days here well above normal) and then then it backed to near normal with some good cold shots. Seen quite a bit of mild days this month and not just concentrated at one time either. November looks to start off milder than 1997 right now. Got a feeling a lot will be learned from having a warm Pacific from the equator to Alaska. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 28, 2015 Report Share Posted October 28, 2015 I keep waiting anxiously for the model run that shows the nice cold front finally making it all the way across Oklahoma. It never makes it. :-( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 28, 2015 Report Share Posted October 28, 2015 My county ended up being the bullseye for this system. I finished with a real nice 2.06". That bumps my October total to 3.29". I had 0.00" eight days ago. More rain will fall on Halloween. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 28, 2015 Report Share Posted October 28, 2015 Nice to hear a soaking rain outside finally. High of 56° today - cloudy pretty much the entire day. On the topic of El Niño autumn's. I looked back at October of 1997, it started off really warm (first 9 days here well above normal) and then then it backed to near normal with some good cold shots. Seen quite a bit of mild days this month and not just concentrated at one time either. November looks to start off milder than 1997 right now. Got a feeling a lot will be learned from having a warm Pacific from the equator to Alaska.Interesting case study based on this post mentioning 1997 this morning. Had to finally break down and analyze the daily surface maps from September-November 1997. At 500 mb, the pattern looked like a dream almost. Storm after storm rolling through. The mean was pretty much a central US trough with a ridge over the southwest. Also had some decent early season snows for the Rockies and even the Northeast I think. However, the problem lies with the fact that all the cold fronts early that year were either "counterfeited" by their origin over the Pacific or they were recycled, stagnant air that never really had time to get really cold. These were also almost immediately followed by warm fronts from the Pacific as well. I have honestly never saw so many straight north to south oriented cold fronts in my life. Then in the same map, by the time a front would clear the Appalachian Mountains, there would be a massive warm front right on its heels flooding the southern US with warm air. Rainfall helped keep the temperatures in check quite a bit but that year was literally a train wreck from the word go. The temperature readings and statistics from that autumn are very very misleading when taken by themselves. I learned quite a bit this morning. Just thought I'd share. :-) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2015 With this deepening storm and the strong winds kicking in, I'm sure we will be seeing bare tree's showing up this weekend. Light snow falling just west of Duluth, MN... http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?location=USMN0208 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 28, 2015 Report Share Posted October 28, 2015 This is a heck of a system. I can't wait til it comes back around in the LRC. We had widespread rains of 1-2" and now the cold side is coming in. Windy with falling temps. Snow showers breaking out in S. Dakota are heading straight for my area! I think I have a chance at seeing my first flakes tonight 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2015 Like Money said, it can snow when surface temps are more than a few degrees above Freezing...Current conditions in Sherman, SD... 28 Oct 2015, 1:56 PMhttp://images.intellicast.com/App_Images/40_clear/wx_77.pngLight Snow38°FFeels Like28°FHumidity: 60%Wind Speed: 20mphWind Direction: 310°Dew Point: 25°Visibility: 9mi That wintry precip is heading your way James! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 28, 2015 Report Share Posted October 28, 2015 Good luck James! Enjoy the snow! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2015 Waters are cooling significantly south of the Aleutians, warming up near the NW NAMER coastline. By the way, isn't it rather interesting that the models are now showing that NE PAC ridge (-EPO) or Gulf of Alaska HP next week??? Right where the waters are warming, HP is going to set up over those waters amplifying the whole weather pattern down stream. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015102812/gfs_z500a_namer_26.png 12z Euro keeps a sharp temperature gradient by Wednesday cutting right through N KS/C IA/C WI. Some parts of NE next Wed/Thu could be hard pressed getting out of the 30's with precip falling. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 28, 2015 Report Share Posted October 28, 2015 I'll take that pattern, anything to keep the darn Pacific air out of here! I'm hoping we can keep a -EPO around and then get the AO to crash. That would be pretty awesome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2015 I'll take that pattern, anything to keep the darn Pacific air out of here! I'm hoping we can keep a -EPO around and then get the AO to crash. That would be pretty awesome.That would be a golden pattern, kicking the strengthening jet farther south and allow the arctic air to works its magic along with juicy pacific systems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted October 28, 2015 Report Share Posted October 28, 2015 Like Money said, it can snow when surface temps are more than a few degrees above Freezing...Current conditions in Sherman, SD... 28 Oct 2015, 1:56 PMhttp://images.intellicast.com/App_Images/40_clear/wx_77.pngLight Snow38°FFeels Like28°FHumidity: 60%Wind Speed: 20mphWind Direction: 310°Dew Point: 25°Visibility: 9mi That wintry precip is heading your way James!I once got a foot of snow in North Texas with the temp never getting below 34 degrees because of a cold core low. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 28, 2015 Report Share Posted October 28, 2015 Currently 38 and light sleet IMBY! I think a few flakes are mixed in as well. It literally started as I pulled into the driveway I also received 1.35" of rain from this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 28, 2015 Report Share Posted October 28, 2015 DMX mentioning a lightning strike in SD:THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOKED...SHOWERY AND INDEED WITH THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THERE WAS A LIGHTNING STRIKE NOTED SOUTH OF ABERDEEN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 28, 2015 Report Share Posted October 28, 2015 Definitely quite a dynamic system.DMX:TONIGHT...H850/H700 WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM IN A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD TOUCH OFF SOME LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA. INITIALLY...THERE IS A POCKET OF VERY COLD...-15 DEG C AIR AT H7 OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AND -4 DEG C AT H85...LEADING TO MORE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT. DO NOT MENTION ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE WARM GROUND...WILL NEED TO WATCH IN THE FAR NORTH THOUGH WHERE THE INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE BETTER. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 29, 2015 Report Share Posted October 29, 2015 When the there is a thin boundary layer of above freezing temps you can see snow easily. Seen snow flakes flying at 40° personally before. Nasty outside, but have been looking forward to it. 1.00" of rain exactly from this system.Rain and snow showers in the Kenosha grids for tonight into the morning. WC around 30° at this hour. Lost a lot of leaves/color today. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 29, 2015 Report Share Posted October 29, 2015 If I've read correctly, we are near (slightly above) last year and only behind 1976 in SAI for anyone who follows that stuff. I think snowcover is a bit lower than that and pretty paltry on the North American side of the globe. I did notice on what snowcover map I have seen that it seems like western Siberia has performed much better than last year. I don't know what correlation that has if any. Just an observation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 29, 2015 Report Share Posted October 29, 2015 If I've read correctly, we are near (slightly above) last year and only behind 1976 in SAI for anyone who follows that stuff. I think snowcover is a bit lower than that and pretty paltry on the North American side of the globe. I did notice on what snowcover map I have seen that it seems like western Siberia has performed much better than last year. I don't know what correlation that has if any. Just an observation. I posted the same thing yesterday. DT with a nice article on this: https://www.wxrisk.com/tracking-siberia-snow-cover/ My guess is at the meaning would be more widespread cold on our side of the globe when it comes, not just an isolated small region of cold. But, just my guess really 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2015 Current conditions...37F temp with wind chills in the upper 20's...just stepped out side, yup, def a shock to the system! Rain/snow showers creeping across the border into McHenry. Feels like late November out there. Lot's of leaves on the ground now and seeing more bare trees. Wausau, WI recieved 2" of snow... Regarding the SAI, saw this Tweet from someone on that. Keep in mind, snow cover is expected to expand from deep Siberian Low in the East over the next few days. Here's a cool video showing 2 Pacific storm systems that went through Bombogenesis on Oct 24-26th. Notice the locations of these storms...one just NE of Japan and the other south of the Aleutians. The waters near Japan are much below normal now and cooling south of the Aleutians. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crASBecjdXw http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png Both of these systems left a "mark" in the Pacific I'd say! I believe there is some definite feedback/forcing mechanism going on now as the seasonal transition continues. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 29, 2015 Report Share Posted October 29, 2015 Glad to see WI got a couple inches! We had some flurries and sleet over here. First of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted October 29, 2015 Report Share Posted October 29, 2015 It was pretty interesting to see the surface obs at Minneapolis. Late last evening, they were in the mid 30's with snow as the core of the cold upper level low was over them. Then as it moved away, warmer air moved back in and the temps warmed all night long despite being behind the storm system. Temps warmed into the 40s overnight. Not too often that you see temps warming overnight behind such a strong low pressure system! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2015 As arctic temps continue to crash, sea ice in the arctic is near 10 year highs! http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2015.png http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current.png In mid September, arctic sea ice began to rapidly form as seen from the map above. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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