2022-2023 California and Southwest Weather Thread

[Anti Marine Layer]

T-storm with rain!

[Anti Marine Layer]

No more thunderstorms or rain, but dewpoint is 70 F.

[Thunder98]

Next week looking very wet!.

 

[Minny_Weather]

GFS maintains its tropical characteristics as the system crosses into California next week, not becoming extratropical until it's over Orange County. That would be wild. 

Pretty wide variation on GEFS but they average out to remnants inundating us.

Euro screws basically everyone except Thunder98, keeping most everything off the coast.

Gooooooo GFS!

[Anti Marine Layer]

Very humid 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Hilary has officially formed

[Anti Marine Layer]

4 hours ago, Thunder98 said:

Next week looking very wet!.

 

[Minny_Weather]

Lol, OFFICIALLY OFFICIAL GUYS!

This reminds me of the Facebook pages in the Midwest who issue their own super extreme mega weather alerts for 24" of snowfall a week before a storm. 

[Minny_Weather]

Ensembles are in pretty good agreement with just about everything except track, and with a couple of outliers being on the less wet (but still wet) side.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro brings more precip than the 00Z run to SoCal, but is still in its own world in terms of track.

[Anti Marine Layer]

6 minutes ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

Lol, OFFICIALLY OFFICIAL GUYS!

This reminds me of the Facebook pages in the Midwest who issue their own super extreme mega weather alerts for 24" of snowfall a week before a storm. 

Kevin Martin 

[LowerGarfield]

17 hours ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Welp the Euro is now fully on board with the GFS and the Canadian about this hurricane making a beeline for SoCal. Every single deterministic run of every model today since the 12z suite has shown a near direct hit, and most of them with the storm making landfall between LA and Pt Conception as a Tropical Storm or even a weak Category 1. Still highly doubtful the storm will maintain that level of wind speed by the time it gets here, but it's looking increasingly likely that most of SoCal could get get an extremely anomalous amount of rain with. Ensembles are significantly more on board as well. My favorite run was the 00z Canadian, which showed 5" of rain for San Diego and OC.

How does the track compare to the 1858 hurricane or the 1939 TS? Are you all rooting for lots of rain or concerned it will buat with high winds and lightning?

[Reg]

Abnormal temperature spike early this morning.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 hours ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

Lol, OFFICIALLY OFFICIAL GUYS!

This reminds me of the Facebook pages in the Midwest who issue their own super extreme mega weather alerts for 24" of snowfall a week before a storm. 

Kevin Martin is still around? lol

[Reg]

Supercell east of Palomar Mountain right now.

[Thunder98]

Wow I could see an inch of rain!

 

 

[Dan the Weatherman]

4 hours ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

Lol, OFFICIALLY OFFICIAL GUYS!

This reminds me of the Facebook pages in the Midwest who issue their own super extreme mega weather alerts for 24" of snowfall a week before a storm. 

A Watch is not official unless it is issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) or the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Edited August 17, 2023 by Dan the Weatherman

[Dan the Weatherman]

1 hour ago, Reg said:

Abnormal temperature spike early this morning.

A thunderstorm passed over my area with light rain, some thunder and a few flashes of lightning here in Orange early this morning between 4 and 4:30 am. Maybe it was outflow caused by this storm that led to the temperature spike in your area.

Edited August 17, 2023 by Dan the Weatherman

[Dan the Weatherman]

44 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

Wow I could see an inch of rain!

 

 

It is really going to be interesting to see what we ultimately get with this system. We could be looking at a repeat of Dolores from July 2015, or something even more substantial and widespread. We will just have to wait and see when the time comes and what the model guidance indicates.

[Anti Marine Layer]

HOT

[Thunder98]

51 minutes ago, Dan the Weatherman said:

It is really going to be interesting to see what we ultimately get with this system. We could be looking at a repeat of Dolores from July 2015, or something even more substantial and widespread. We will just have to wait and see when the time comes and what the model guidance indicates.

I have already seen way more rain this summer than summer 2015.

[roadtonowhere08]

DUDE!!!  It has been a while since I looked up weather and I get this:

And then I come here to see what you guys are posting.  I am so ready for whatever comes!!!  Finally some interesting and really rare weather. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Probably no more surprise rain tonight. 

[Thunder98]

1 hour ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Probably no more surprise rain tonight. 

You might instead get a visit from the marine layer.

[Minny_Weather]

4 hours ago, Dan the Weatherman said:

A Watch is not official unless it is issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) or the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Yes, correct. That's what I was getting at.

[Minny_Weather]

Lol, even SGX is saying to not listen to BS

Quote

Tropical Storm Hilary is about 750 miles southeast of the southern 
tip of Baja California Sur. Hilary is forecast to move up the west 
coast of Baja over the next 5 days. An increase in moisture from 
this storm is expected to bring widespread heavy rain. Another 
concern is areas of strong, gusty, easterly winds Sunday and Monday. 
This does have the potential to be a very high impact event for 
portions of Southern California. There is still a degree of 
uncertainty in the forecast and more details will come on exact 
timing, location, and magnitude of impacts in the coming days. 
Please follow official weather sources like weather.gov/sandiego, 
weather.gov/losangeles, and hurricanes.gov for the latest forecast 
information. 

For Tuesday through the end of next week, a significant amount of 
moisture is expected to linger in southern California. This will 
leave the door open for afternoon convection through the forecast 
period. Global ensembles have precipitable water values gradually 
decreasing by the weekend of the 26th. The moisture in the air will 
help keep day time high temperatures well below seasonal averages, 
but overnight temperatures will remain elevated.

 

[Reg]

5 hours ago, Dan the Weatherman said:

A thunderstorm passed over my area with light rain, some thunder and a few flashes of lightning here in Orange early this morning between 4 and 4:30 am. Maybe it was outflow caused by this storm that led to the temperature spike in your area.

Possibly. There was a sudden wind spike (15mph) during that time as well, and the humidity dipped for a while.

[AquariusRadar]

A big patch of dry air ahead of Hilary. The models are optimistic. There is a narrow gap between the continental high over Texas and the Pacific high off SoCal. The models must think Hilary can squeeze through that narrow gap. If not, Hilary like Greg, doomed to be parched by the dry air. Conditions must change if SoCal is to get the tropical moisture. IMHO

[SpaceRace22]

2 hours ago, AquariusRadar said:

A big patch of dry air ahead of Hilary. The models are optimistic. There is a narrow gap between the continental high over Texas and the Pacific high off SoCal. The models must think Hilary can squeeze through that narrow gap. If not, Hilary like Greg, doomed to be parched by the dry air. Conditions must change if SoCal is to get the tropical moisture. IMHO

Oh wow, I didn't know this website had geniuses smarter than multiple supercomputers and every professional meteorologist in the country. It's a wonder there aren't more people here to read your wisdom.

[Reg]

13 hours ago, Thunder98 said:

I have already seen way more rain this summer than summer 2015.

I saw 2.18" in summer 2015. This summer I have seen 0.01".

[Minny_Weather]

8 hours ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Oh wow, I didn't know this website had geniuses smarter than multiple supercomputers and every professional meteorologist in the country. It's a wonder there aren't more people here to read your wisdom.

The snark isn't warranted here, it is legit insight. If I had a dollar for every time a good system is zapped by dry air...

 

I get you want rain. I do too. No need for stuff like this.

[Minny_Weather]

Palm Springs seeing an entire season's worth of rainfall in 2 days in August would certainly be a thing.

[Minny_Weather]

NHC has her crossing into CA as a TS now. Euro still kills her tropical characteristics about 100 miles south of the border. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Theme changed. It's not fall yet.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Reacts are still BROKEN!

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

Palm Springs seeing an entire season's worth of rainfall in 2 days in August would certainly be a thing.

Could end the drought for the rest of California  

[Minny_Weather]

1 hour ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Reacts are still BROKEN!

[Minny_Weather]

Flood watch issued by all the SoCal offices:

Quote

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...A portion of Southwest California, including the following
  areas, Orange County Coastal Areas, Orange County Inland Areas,
  San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire, San
  Diego County Coastal Areas, San Diego County Valleys and Santa Ana
  Mountains and Foothills.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Flooding in poor drainage and urban areas. Debris flows are
  possible on recent burn scars.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Tropical Cyclone Hilary is expected to bring a substantial
    surge in moisture into Southern California, with heavy
    rainfall and the potential for flash flooding Saturday
    through Monday.
  - https://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

AFD from SGX:

Quote

All eyes turn to Hurricane Hilary and it's potential impacts on
Southern California Saturday through Monday. Hurricane Hilary is
expected to rapidly intensify as it moves northward up Baja
California, then weakening as it hits colder waters in northern
Baja. The exact track and intensity of Hilary once it moves
northward towards Southern California remains uncertain at this
time.

Regardless of the exact track and intensity of Hilary, which 
could continue to change in the coming days, it will bring a 
substantial surge in moisture into Southern California, with heavy
rainfall and a high potential for flash flooding, especially for 
the mountains and deserts. A Flood Watch has been issued with the
afternoon forecast package for all areas Saturday through Monday.

Current forecast rainfall amounts Saturday through Monday:

Coast: 2 to 2.50 inches 
Valleys: 2.50 to 3 inches 
Mojave Desert: 3 to 4.50 inches 
San Bernardino County Mtns: 4 to 6 inches, locally up to 8 inches
on the eastern slopes
Riverside and San Diego County Mtns: 4 to 8 inches, locally up to
10 inches on the eastern slopes 
Lower Deserts: 5 to 6 inches

In addition to the rainfall and flooding threat, another concern 
is the potential for strong east winds Sunday and Monday. The wind
threat will be more dependent on the track of Hilary. Should
Hilary have a more westerly track, the wind threat would likely 
be greater, and if the track is more easterly, the threat would be
less. 

The combination of heavy rainfall, the potential for flash
flooding, and strong winds could very well make this a high 
impact event for Southern California. Please stay up to date on
the latest forecasts through the National Hurricane Center
(nhc.noaa.gov) and NWS San Diego at weather.gov/sandiego. 

 

[Thunder98]

Seems like the cone shifted a little west again. I'm on the edge of the cone agan.

 

 

[Thunder98]