Temps currently at 11F under mostly sunny skies. Feels great seeing the sun again.

NOAA: Longwave upper level trough over the Rockies with multiple embedded waves still on track to move through Friday night, with the max 500 MB height fall center tracking through Kentucky/West Virginia. None- the-less, still a strong height fall center (~90 M) progged to move through the Straights. Southwest low level jet of 35+ knots advecting around 2.25 g/kg of specific humidity (in 850-700 MB layer) through southeast Michigan Friday afternoon/evening. With about 6 hours of solid lift/forcing at any given location, a widespread 1.5 - 2.5" snowfall appears likely as the cold front tracks through and clears the state around or shortly after midnight. Potential to reach up to 3 inches in spots. 00z Euro ensemble members now 90+ percent probability of qpf reaching and exceeding a tenth of an inch, with majority members indicating two tenths of an inch, in line with the operational run.

Icon is le solidé

That’s it…Bottineau ND it is. Looking for a place there starting today.

My feeling is that looking at ensemble mix anything beyond five days is still the way to go. It can be somewhat futile when the members don't reveal a consensus but I just take that to mean the setup is too volatile or fringy to forecast a true outcome thus far out. The ensembles usually start coalescing around a trend in the 5-7 day range. Right now, we're clearly still in that no man's land with a mix of notable cold members and mild ones. the mix clearly suggests a higher likelihood for no big cold outbreak but there are enough outliers to keep me glued to each new run.