Icon is le solidé

That’s it…Bottineau ND it is. Looking for a place there starting today.

My feeling is that looking at ensemble mix anything beyond five days is still the way to go. It can be somewhat futile when the members don't reveal a consensus but I just take that to mean the setup is too volatile or fringy to forecast a true outcome thus far out. The ensembles usually start coalescing around a trend in the 5-7 day range. Right now, we're clearly still in that no man's land with a mix of notable cold members and mild ones. the mix clearly suggests a higher likelihood for no big cold outbreak but there are enough outliers to keep me glued to each new run.

NOAA: Ridging at all levels to start the weekend before the next low pressure system slowly tracks through for the second half of the weekend into early next week, bringing additional light snow. However, trends are farther north with the low over the Western Great Lakes on Sunday, with the active warm front over northern lower Michigan. Thus, it looks to be tough to get much more than an inch or two, and that includes the cold front passage on Monday and modest Lake enhancement during the day. Nocturnal/organized Lake Michigan band may end up setting up Monday evening/night however, with 850 MB temps advertised to be around -18 C. A significant I-94 band is possible with the cold cyclonic flow and 500 MB trough axis/low over the Central Great Lakes, per 00z Euro.

Looks like the show has started...though it does mention weakening rates later.