Ahhh... media clickbait. We have been just below Nina threshold all winter... suddenly a .1 jump in the ONI to meet the threshold is a massive change. It has been declared! And its actually going to be unusually dry the rest of this month. This is why I try to avoid local news entirely. In a couple months it will "LA NEUTRAL has been declared". And then next fall they will be saying El Nino will bring a winter of scorching heat and drought to western WA.

12z GFS in 52 minutes. Let's get some really good trends going today, specifically the ridge merger occurring sooner/further offshore.

@Tom finally some synoptic powda heading my way. Cant wait to see the scenery tomorrow morning. Glad to see Chicago Metro is in line for some of the white gold as well.

Nearly surrounded by 90-100% chances of > 1 inch of snow while my area has a 40-50% chance over the next fifteen days. Just to get an inch. Even with the occasionally modeled -PNA pattern change, the storm track looks pretty suppressed. Clippers for ND/MN/WI/MI, nice storms for down south. Nothing in between. The AIFS has been extremely consistent in showing a precip hole surrounding my area. Run after run after run, absolutely nothing. I mean, this is just getting ridiculous at this point. Sioux Falls and surrounding areas are currently running 12-15 inches behind seasonal snowfall averages. Not feeling confident we will make any meaningful dent in that until at least early February.

We continue well below normal temperatures for the next couple of days before we very briefly "warm" to closer to normal before we again fall to well below normal temperatures starting Monday night and lasting through all of next week. Light snow showers will arrive overnight and be over just past daybreak tomorrow morning with a coating to 1"of snow across southern sections of the area.