Good news is we will probably enter a cold and snowy period in the December 15-30 period, possibly earlier.

Today's storm will definitely leave its mark up in Yooperland...Road trip anyone???

This is the worst start to the mountain winter in this area in many years. This will be the first time since i have had my cabin property to not really have any snow on the ground for thanksgiving weekend since 2013, average depth there for this weekend is about 8-12 inches. Right now zero on the ground, maybe a little this week.

Still plenty of time for things to change but the way it's looking right now is that there will be two little pieces of energy coming southwest of the main PV lobe. One of these has trended so far west its a non factor and the other (without the pull of the first) gets absorbed into the main PV lobe too quickly. Effectively, this allows the main trough to drop east more easily without the gradient into the mountains. So I think that will end up meaning a couple of days with highs near freezing but little in the way of precip. There are still pathways to winter weather here but I'd put the odds of anything more than freezing drizzle around 20% right now. Obviously those further north may do better, but that is life in the southern plains, you need everything to go just right.

Here's a loop of the November 1950 storm. Deep, but not extraordinarily deep (I think it bottomed out in the low 980s), but it sure left a mark. I think the strong surface high to the north contributed to the very high winds on the eastern side. Also the flow would've been ripping onshore in the coastal areas of the northeast, maximizing impacts near the coast. Would've been a fun system to track for those in the eastern ~1/3 of the country.