Feels like the door is still cracked open in week 2. Other than the usual GFS shenanigans, doesn’t feel like much has changed.

Seems like the EPS has been a lot less rock solid this winter.

Yeah, mentioned it recently but since we just had a strong Nino 2 winters ago, the historical likelihood of another strong or even high end moderate one so soon are very low.

This interesting. A significant cluster of dawgs popped up on the 12z EPS. Still not a majority, but it's drastically more than were on the 00z. Should get some finality to this within the next day or 2, but that's not the worst sign ever to see a new cluster rear its head around day 8/9ish. 12z: Last night's 00z:

Going to be in NYC the 26-28th. Not sure I own the right suits for this kind of weather.