September 2016 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

A re-curving Typhoon is set to hit near Japan within the next 4-5 days producing a deep trough in East Asia.  This will more than likely influence our weather pattern as we flip the calendar into astronomical Fall and close out September.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016091306/gfs-ens_z500a_fe_20.png

 

 

Today's CFSv2 Week 3 & 4 run showing an interesting pattern...it will likely change run to run, however, the East Asian linkage fits this outcome if it should persist.

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_20160912.NAsfcT.gif

 

 

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_20160912.z500.gif

[james1976]

Quite the rainmaker heading into the midwest late this week. DMX been talking about it for a few days now.

[Tom]

In response to a post I made in the Fall/Winter Outlook, East Asian Theory starting to appear Week 2, responding to re-curvature of Typhoon near Japan within the next 4 days or so.  GEFS showing a nice streak of above normal precip and below normal temps.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016091312/gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016091312/gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_12.png

 

 

 

CFSv2 weeklies showing a much stronger push of colder air...might be overdone...but signaling a much different pattern than we have been used to.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016091306/cfs-avg_T2maMean_us_4.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016091306/cfs-avg_T2maMean_us_5.png

[jaster220]

Quite the rainmaker heading into the midwest late this week. DMX been talking about it for a few days now.

 

Is there something else to talk about? It's pretty snooze-worthy right now. Starting with Gilbert in '88, then Hugo, then Andrew, etc up until Idk, 2008? there were often major land-falling hurricanes and/or tropical remnants to follow/watch/track. Here we are in prime-time for tropical stuff again and we're bored to tears lately. 

[Niko]

Went out Salmon fishing very early this morning around 5:00am at Winthrop Harbor.  It was a cool and crisp morning, but perfect weather conditions.  My buddy landed this 30-33" (didn't take actual measurement) King Salmon roughly at 6:52am on a spoon.  Took about 5 minutes to reel her in the boat!  She put on a fight.  Due to the offshore winds, the lake had upwelled cooler waters from down below and water temp was at 66F.

 

 

 

 

Holy Crap!

[jaster220]

 

 

CFSv2 weeklies showing a much stronger push of colder air...might be overdone...but signaling a much different pattern than we have been used to.

 

With low humidity and 75-80º afternoon temps, nice sleeping. Am I the only one who can wait for that? Autumn has grown on me, especially last year's super sunny version. I don't want to fast-forward and miss out on fresh apple cider, Indian summer, playing in the leafs, pumpkin patch visits, color touring, bon fires, dune hikes, pumpkin spiced latte's, winds swirling the leafs down mainstreet, hay rides, and all the other things I've come to associate with the season. I've seen the ground white in Sept like the Yellowstone pic when I lived in NMI, and it was cool to see that don't get me wrong. Guess I've returned my "let's just skip autumn" club membership lol. Love the warm days with lower sun angle!

[Tom]

With low humidity and 75-80º afternoon temps, nice sleeping. Am I the only one who can wait for that? Autumn has grown on me, especially last year's super sunny version. I don't want to fast-forward and miss out on fresh apple cider, Indian summer, playing in the leafs, pumpkin patch visits, color touring, bon fires, dune hikes, pumpkin spiced latte's, winds swirling the leafs down mainstreet, hay rides, and all the other things I've come to associate with the season. I've seen the ground white in Sept like the Yellowstone pic when I lived in NMI, and it was cool to see that don't get me wrong. Guess I've returned my "let's just skip autumn" club membership lol. Love the warm days with lower sun angle!

Kinda like this 7-day forecast???

 

 

 

I hear ya loud and clear.  September will probably end up above normal around the Lakes region, unless it really cools off towards the end of the month.  So far its running 2-4F above normal.  I can't say that I don't like Autumn days as you have explained.  Autumn 2007 was a perfect example of Indian Summer weather all the way into November, then the pattern flipped hard and Winter took control.

 

At this point, I'm fine if it turns cool/wet as October rolls on in.  We have had a very long streak of above normal temps since the summer of last year.  Tbh, I wouldn't mind a pattern change, although, if you have any outdoor projects, that would put a damper on it.

[james1976]

GFS showing a couple big wound up systems affecting the upper midwest in mid-long range with cool air pushing behind em. Might be correlating with the East Asian Theory.

[Tom]

@ Jaster, your wish of warm Autumn weather is in store for much of next week.  Maybe a few days in a row in the 80's???  Must say, 80's this time of year are much more enjoyable with lessor dew points.  I can tolerate mid 60's, but the 70 degree or higher dew point gets pretty annoying quickly.

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

Yeah, I mentioned the 2007 similar outcome this autumn as a possible scenario. Tbh though, I doubt we make it that deeply into the season with Indian Summer conditions. It's wishful thinking on my part. Last year was so sunny and also mild (sans the Big Dog in Nov) and RARE so I can't truly expect that again anytime soon I just don't want to see a sudden flip to endless clouds and sub-par temps. October can never be a true winter month around here so it might as well be pleasant and save the flip for later. In the meantime, I'll enjoy that forecast you snapped!   

[james1976]

Jaster, where u located?

I cant see anyone's location on my phone.

[jaster220]

Jaster, where u located?

I cant see anyone's location on my phone.

 

Marshall, MI  which is about 40 miles south of the capital city of Lansing. South central Lwr. Michigan. Also about 40 miles north of the Indiana border right about in the mid way (east to west) across the state. Does that help? 

[Tom]

12z GFS...from mid-July heat on Tuesday...to...mid-Oct level temps...gotta love living out in the Plains with the Topsy Turby bi-polar weather...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016091412/gfs_T2ma_ncus_26.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016091412/gfs_T2m_ncus_26.png

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016091412/gfs_T2ma_ncus_34.png

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016091412/gfs_T2m_ncus_34.png

[james1976]

Marshall, MI which is about 40 miles south of the capital city of Lansing. South central Lwr. Michigan. Also about 40 miles north of the Indiana border right about in the mid way (east to west) across the state. Does that help?

I was in Battle Creek a couple weeks ago!

[james1976]

12z GFS...from mid-July heat on Tuesday...to...mid-Oct level temps...gotta love living out in the Plains with the Topsy Turby bi-polar weather...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016091412/gfs_T2ma_ncus_26.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016091412/gfs_T2m_ncus_26.png

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016091412/gfs_T2ma_ncus_34.png

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016091412/gfs_T2m_ncus_34.png

Not looking forward to anymore 80s. Make it stop. I hope the humidity is less.

[jaster220]

I was in Battle Creek a couple weeks ago!

 

Depending on what part, my condolences! 

[james1976]

Depending on what part, my condolences!

No doubt! Strange town!

[Tom]

I knew it would happen sooner than later, but could the models be trending towards a -NAO???  Strat warming really starting to fire up over North America.  GEFS are also now coming into agreement and blossoming a NW NAMER ridge Week 2.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

 

The AO may also be following suit...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

 

We may be seeing the new LRC pattern evolving towards the last week of the month.

 

GEFS Day 10-14...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016091500/gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_10.png

 

Day 12-16...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016091500/gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_12.png'

 

 

CFSv2 Week 3-4 500mb pattern...

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_20160912.z500.gif

[Tom]

Just took a look at the new JMA Weeklies and they are similar to the GEFS members.  I'm going to enjoy what will most likely be the last streak of possible 80's around these parts next week, unless we see something unusual happen in Oct/Nov.

[jaster220]

Just took a look at the new JMA Weeklies and they are similar to the GEFS members.  I'm going to enjoy what will most likely be the last streak of possible 80's around these parts next week, unless we see something unusual happen in Oct/Nov.

 

Me too. What's "PSEA" stand for again? Just getting familiar with those JMA graphics tbh. Thx

[Tom]

Me too. What's "PSEA" stand for again? Just getting familiar with those JMA graphics tbh. Thx

It outlines where above normal Precip will fall...

[jaster220]

It outlines where above normal Precip will fall...

 

Thanks. In that case me likes!

[Tom]

A cool and wet signal establishing itself in the central CONUS Week 2 according to the GEFS members...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016091506/gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016091500/gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

 

 

 

Continuing cooler than normal to close out September....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016091500/gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_12.png

[Tom]

What an interesting 12z GFS run at 500mb.  It's showing a possible Omega Block developing over NW NAMER by Day 8-10and a hint of a Greenland Block Day 6-8.  This type of pattern really slows down the hemispheric flow in the mid latitudes.  An interesting system trying to spin up next weekend as well.  Overall, a very chilly run for Week 2.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_228_500_vort_ht.gif

[jaster220]

 

 

Continuing cooler than normal to close out September....

 

Maps showing dead-on normal for mby. Which per this neat graph shows the avg high temp on the 30th of about 67º (not too bad)

 

 

[Tom]

12z EPS also showing an Omega Block Day 8-10 near NW NAMER...both GFS/EURO on board, might be a chilly end to September!  Strat Warming doing what I though it would.  Very interesting to see how this all has been gearing up as we approach Oct and the new LRC pattern sets up.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016091512/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_9.png

 

 

Day 10...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016091512/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

[james1976]

Definitely liking these models.....especially knowing that the new LRC will be evolving.

[OKwx2k4]

Let's hope that omega block heads back a little further to the west as the season progresses. It can get too strong and cut the cold source off. Although, if I saw that upper air pattern in January or February, I'd be screaming "Massive Snowstorm Incoming!"

[OKwx2k4]

Thought I posted the above post in the wrong thread. Lol.

[Tom]

Definitely liking these models.....especially knowing that the new LRC will be evolving.

18z GFS with a bomb targeting the Upper Midwest!  Ha!  I hope we can see a few of these during the winter....nice powerful Autumn storm.  Eye candy...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016091518/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_38.png

 

 

 

Meantime, I was just out in the back yard cutting the grass and noticed how much longer the shadows are getting as the sun is setting lower each day.  Anyone else notice how the mornings and evenings shadows cast from the sun are a bit different now???  The seasons are changing and I love paying attention to the little things in life.

[james1976]

18z GFS with a bomb targeting the Upper Midwest!  Ha!  I hope we can see a few of these during the winter....nice powerful Autumn storm.  Eye candy...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016091518/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_38.png

 

 

 

Meantime, I was just out in the back yard cutting the grass and noticed how much longer the shadows are getting as the sun is setting lower each day.  Anyone else notice how the mornings and evenings shadows cast from the sun are a bit different now???  The seasons are changing and I love paying attention to the little things in life.

I have noticed!!  And that is a heck of a storm! There's been a couple popping up on the models lately. Needs to happen this winter!

[james1976]

Currently getting hit hard by tstorms. Over 2" so far this eveing. WEay more to come....its back building into NW IA. Flash Flood Watch in effect for the overnight. Interested to see what my gauge will show in the morning.

[chances14]

 

 

Meantime, I was just out in the back yard cutting the grass and noticed how much longer the shadows are getting as the sun is setting lower each day.  Anyone else notice how the mornings and evenings shadows cast from the sun are a bit different now???  The seasons are changing and I love paying attention to the little things in life.

yes I notice it. windows in my bedroom are facing to the northwest so by the time summer solstice hits, the sun is shinning into the room for several hours a day. by the time the winter solstice hits, the sun isn't shining at all in the room at any point of the day. it's pretty neat to watch it change throughout the year

[Hawkeye]

PSEA stands for sea level pressure and anomaly.

 

I picked up another 1.57" of rain last night.  We've been getting heavy rain events consistently all summer.

[Tom]

PSEA stands for sea level pressure and anomaly.

 

I picked up another 1.57" of rain last night.  We've been getting heavy rain events consistently all summer.

 

Thanks for the correction.  I remember watching a video on Wx Bell and JB somehow explained it indicating more moisture.  I guess if you take into account lower than normal pressures, therfore increases chances of storminess, which in turn increases chances of precip.

[james1976]

2.55" of rain here last evening and overnight.

[Jaycee]

Some places out here near Gabel's area were approaching a foot of rain!! 40 miles north of here got rekt last night. Lincoln got an abysmal amount, of course. September has had some really interesting heavy rain events around here the past couple of years. A lot of slow movers.

[james1976]

6z GFS still showing a big wound up storm next weekend for the upper midwest with a big cold push dropping down.

[james1976]

One of the local mets said big changes are coming last week of September. I like it

[Tom]

Hope to see some dingers later tonight...need the rain as its getting pretty dry...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016091618/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_4.png