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2017 Summer El Nino Watch/Discussion

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#51
Madtown

Posted 22 March 2017 - 05:13 PM

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One more crap winter on the way😕

#52
gimmesnow

Posted 22 March 2017 - 07:59 PM

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That's sad to see things going that way. We could really use a better winter here next year. Ski hills, bars, snowmobiling, etc are all taking a beating the last two years over winter. I didn't think we'd get three bad ones in a row.


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#53
gosaints

Posted 23 March 2017 - 09:19 AM

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regions 1+2 looking good



#54
Tom

Posted 25 March 2017 - 06:57 AM

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SCRIPPS ENSO forecast for the Summer months...this model is notorious for running colder than other models.  I remember this time last year it was forecasting a super Nina for last Winter.

 

 

 

fcst_made_2017-03_for_2017-06.jpg

 

Next Fall...

 

fcst_made_2017-03_for_2017-09.jpg

 

 

Next Winter...

 

fcst_made_2017-03_for_2017-12.jpg



#55
jaster220

Posted 28 March 2017 - 04:15 AM

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That's sad to see things going that way. We could really use a better winter here next year. Ski hills, bars, snowmobiling, etc are all taking a beating the last two years over winter. I didn't think we'd get three bad ones in a row.

 

Not that it can't happen (3rd turd), but IF we could get a weak Nino to true neutral (kinda what Scripps that Tom just posted shows) we "should" do well. Long ways to go ofc.


Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"  (annual avg for mby = ~49.9")

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) wub.png

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014, Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, April 1975, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918


#56
gimmesnow

Posted 28 March 2017 - 09:55 AM

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Not that it can't happen (3rd turd), but IF we could get a weak Nino to true neutral (kinda what Scripps that Tom just posted shows) we "should" do well. Long ways to go ofc.

 

Oh good, there's some hope. I was looking over a university page, I forget which one, and they said neutral was the best snow for Chicago area historically.


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#57
Tom

Posted 01 April 2017 - 05:27 AM

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CanSIPS models suggesting a weak Nino this summer which isn't much of a surprise as most models are thinking the same.

 

cansips_sstaMean_noice_month_global_3.pn

 

 

Looking out farther, a basin-wide Nino develops, but the warmest waters are central-based.  This will be the key to winter weather fans next year as the new LRC develops in Oct/Nov.

 

cansips_ssta_noice_global_7.png

 

cansips_ssta_noice_global_8.png



#58
Niko

Posted 01 April 2017 - 01:14 PM

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Nobody knows what this Summer will bring. Mother nature will do what eva it wants. Last year the models were advertising more snow and colder temps and we ended up with a mild Winter. That goes ta show ya! Peace Ya'll. ;)



#59
gimmesnow

Posted 01 April 2017 - 05:40 PM

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spotlesssun_slow.gif

 

Sorry if it's too huge of an image, pretty interesting stuff, no sun spots.



#60
Tom

Posted 02 April 2017 - 06:43 AM

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spotlesssun_slow.gif

 

Sorry if it's too huge of an image, pretty interesting stuff, no sun spots.

This year has been abnormally low in sun spot activity, except for what has erupted recently.  It'll be interesting what happens throughout this year.



#61
Tom

Posted 03 April 2017 - 07:21 AM

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Interesting, the subsurface anomalies in the central PAC are growing colder while the eastern PAC waters are growing warmer...

 

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif



#62
Tom

Posted 03 April 2017 - 07:47 AM

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FWIW, the CFSv2 has backed off the idea of a stronger Nino developing during the summer months...

 

glbSSTSeaInd3.gif



#63
Tom

Posted 04 April 2017 - 07:33 AM

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CPC's SST analogs see the El Nino coming on in the Summer, but then backing off heading towards the Autumn...

 

casst_anom.2.gif

 

 

casst_anom.3.gif



#64
Tom

Posted 06 April 2017 - 06:11 AM

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Scripps udpated April run hasn't changed much and is running colder than the rest of the models...

 

Summer...

 

fcst_made_2017-04_for_2017-06.jpg

 

 

Autumn...

 

fcst_made_2017-04_for_2017-09.jpg



#65
OKwx2k4

Posted 07 April 2017 - 03:39 AM

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Wow. That's extremely far east. If that one verifies, kiss next winter goodbye for sure.

#66
Tom

Posted 07 April 2017 - 01:04 PM

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NMME's thinking for the summer...

 

nmme_sstaMean_noice_month_global_2.png

 

 

Autumn...

 

nmme_sstaMean_noice_month_global_5.png

 

 

November...the majority of the models suggest a central-based Nino stretching almost basin wide...

 

nmme_ssta_noice_global_7.png



#67
Tom

Posted 08 April 2017 - 06:40 AM

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New Euro seasonal Nino Plume is showing more spread and less members in the strong category....

 

ps2png-atls17-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8


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#68
Tom

Posted 10 April 2017 - 07:48 AM

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It's wild to see the SOI rise dramatically over the 30-day base state...

 

Latest SouthernLatest Southern Oscillation Index values SOI values for 10 Apr 2017

Average for last 30 days 3.03

Average for last 90 days -1.33

Daily contribution to SOI calculation 19.25
 

 

 

 

Response, ENSO 1.2 falling off a cliff!

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

 

nino12.png



#69
Tom

Posted 11 April 2017 - 02:49 PM

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Borrowed this from Ryan Maue...Euro Seasonal suggesting a central base Nino right when the new LRC develops...

 

Although, don't necessarily like the pocket of cold waters near NW NAMER...still a ways to go...

 

 

C9KXu9LWAAA27kc.jpg



#70
Tom

Posted 12 April 2017 - 06:30 AM

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The new JAMSTEC model came in and still suggesting a Modiki El Nino developing late summer into the Fall...

 

ssta.ninomdk.fcst.1apr2017.gif

 

However, it has ticked up the warmth of the waters.  Getting close to Super Nino status during next Winter.

 

ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1apr2017.gif

 

 

Summer months...

 

ssta.glob.JJA2017.1apr2017.gif

 

Autumn...

 

ssta.glob.SON2017.1apr2017.gif

 

It is the warmest running climate model so we see how this all plays out in the end.



#71
gimmesnow

Posted 12 April 2017 - 07:46 AM

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Isn't a super nino super bad for winter?



#72
Tom

Posted 12 April 2017 - 07:59 AM

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Isn't a super nino super bad for winter?

Depends, JAMSTEC isn't necessarily looking that bad as far as the warm/cold pools placement in the PAC.  I think its running a bit warm.



#73
NEJeremy

Posted 12 April 2017 - 09:26 AM

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based on bad the long range models did for this past winter, I refuse to get sucked into any potential hype for next winter :P


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#74
Tom

Posted 12 April 2017 - 09:49 AM

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based on bad the long range models did for this past winter, I refuse to get sucked into any potential hype for next winter :P

Indeed, I don't get excited till I begin to analyze how the new LRC evolves.


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#75
Tom

Posted 16 April 2017 - 06:14 AM

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Euro seasonal showing a central-based Nino on average during the summer...

 

ps2png-atls01-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

 

 

 

Early Autumn in retrogrades farther west and a bit warmer...

 

ps2png-atls18-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8



#76
Tom

Posted 17 April 2017 - 06:10 AM

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I'd imagine with the SOI crash currently in the -30's over the last few days, we will see some jump to the ENSO warming.  However, current anomalies are not all that impressive.

 

sstaanim.gif

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

ssta-week.gif



#77
Tom

Posted 17 April 2017 - 06:24 AM

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The new JMA seasonal has a feeble El Nino growing in the PAC...

 

Y201704.D1100_gls.png

 

 

July....

 

Y201704.D1100_gls.png



#78
Tom

Posted 18 April 2017 - 06:29 AM

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CFSv2 now out to October and sure looks like the Euro in terms of placement of the warmest waters in the central PAC...meanwhile, over in the N PAC waters are cold near Hawaii. 

 

glbSSTMonInd6.gif



#79
Tom

Posted 18 April 2017 - 06:30 AM

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Here is the OND period...

 

glbSSTSeaInd6.gif



#80
Thunder98

Posted 18 April 2017 - 07:46 AM

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I think we will see a very weak El Nino this fall. +0.5-+0.6 in the 3 and 4 region.



#81
Tom

Posted 22 April 2017 - 01:37 PM

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I'm hearing the CFSv2 re-initialized and has backed off the strength of the Nino for this summer and heading into the Fall.  Recent runs barely showing a weak Nino.  If trends persist through mid summer, a weak Nino would not be bad at all.

 

 

nino34Mon.gif

 

 

glbSSTSeaInd2.gif

 

 

 

October...

 

glbSSTMonInd6.gif



#82
Tom

Posted 24 April 2017 - 05:50 AM

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The latest daily run on average for the entire summer may not even reach "weak" Nino status...

 

cfs-mon_01_sstaMean_month_global_2.png



#83
Tom

Posted 24 April 2017 - 06:03 AM

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Central PAC subsurface waters still coolish which will prob retard any warming in the foreseeable future.

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

Signs of warming on both sides of the PAC, but not in central PAC...

 

ssttlon5_c.gif

 

 

 

 

 

sstaanim.gif



#84
gimmesnow

Posted 24 April 2017 - 04:06 PM

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I'll be happy if next winter is just really cold, don't need the snow but I would love it. After the last two, my standards for a happy winter have fallen massively.



#85
Tom

Posted 24 April 2017 - 04:11 PM

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I'll be happy if next winter is just really cold, don't need the snow but I would love it. After the last two, my standards for a happy winter have fallen massively.


'13-'14 seems like a distant memory! Wouldn't mind seeing a '76-'77 scenario next winter. Seeing some analogs and patterns in the PAC showing up.

#86
NEJeremy

Posted 25 April 2017 - 07:13 AM

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I'll be happy if next winter is just really cold, don't need the snow but I would love it. After the last two, my standards for a happy winter have fallen massively.

So you like 10 below zero, a -40 W.C., and no snow on the ground?  :huh:



#87
Tom

Posted 25 April 2017 - 07:32 AM

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The shoulder season is normally a difficult time for modeling as they struggle what to do with the SST's in the PAC.  Not only has the CFSv2 backed off a moderate strength El Nino for the summer, but it's barely showing a weak Nino now.

 

Moreover, the POAMA climate model has backed off it's Nino-look from earlier in the month.

 

April 9th...

 

C-QcAB-XkAAAwkG.jpg

 

April 23rd..

 

C-QcBXGXUAA-bo2.jpg



#88
Tom

Posted 25 April 2017 - 04:25 PM

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Took a look at the CFSv2 monthlies and it's showing some crazy weenie runs for next Autumn/Winter. I really wonder if this Nino even reaches moderate strength like earlier runs were showing. We'll see. Trends for a much colder cold season overall are on the table if the warm/cold pools align just right in the PAC.

#89
gimmesnow

Posted 25 April 2017 - 05:31 PM

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So you like 10 below zero, a -40 W.C., and no snow on the ground?  :huh:

It's not ideal but at least they can make snow and it'll be good snow. Once it starts getting warm and the man made snow starts freezing and thawing it ends up horrendously bad. Man made snow likes to melt down into a giant ice cube as opposed to melting and flowing away.

 

Snowboarding this year was pretty bad. The people at the hill did an amazing job given what they were dealt, but it was still pretty lousy. If we get -10 they can make a ton of really nice snow. Something I didn't even get this year from snow guns.