April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Bonus partly sunny day up here.   

 

12Z GFS sure looks nice starting later this week for the rest of the run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another approximate half inch of rain since midnight. 

 

Timberline sporting a 183" base right now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Checking out some climate data this morning. The first 70 of the year at Silver Falls in 2011 was June 3rd. Quite a ways to go to reach that mark...

 

Only 7 80+ days June-August, but 8 such days in September. 

[Jesse]

Checking out some climate data this morning. The first 70 of the year at Silver Falls in 2011 was June 3rd. Quite a ways to go to reach that mark...

 

Only 7 80+ days June-August, but 8 such days in September.

September 2011 was nasssty.

[ShawniganLake]

Drying

 

[TT-SEA]

September 2011 was nasssty.

 

The sun came out and it was warm after a cold summer?    Sounds horrific!  

[stuffradio]

00Z ECMWF says I will end April with 13" of rain, 6.3" of rain is normal...

[Jesse]

The sun came out and it was warm after a cold summer? Sounds horrific!

The humidity made that warm spell pretty gross. Just my opinion.

[Front Ranger]

Jesse's dream! He will not criticize Cliff for this comment and also why Jesse loves it to be as miserable as possible. Sounds like people ARE complaining despite Jared's anecdotal evidence.

 

The complaints about this winter's clouds and rain have been deafening; perhaps it was contribute to large migration back to California and relieve the housing situation in the Puget Sound region. I was wondering why traffic has been greater southbound on I5...perhaps our weather is coming to our rescue, sending the high-tech hordes back to the sun-drenched Bay area.

Almost all of your evidence is anecdotal.

[Guest happ]

For Phil... technically not raining right now but the pavement is still wet from rain overnight.  

 

Tim, what is this tree in the foreground [right side] with red branches?

[Jesse]

Almost all of your evidence is anecdotal.

Evidence for what? This is where you get silly.

 

Do you honestly expect anything but anecdotal evidence illustrating how people have felt about the rain? Should we start a scientific study?

[Front Ranger]

Evidence for what? This is where you get silly.

 

Do you honestly expect anything but anecdotal evidence illustrating how people have felt about the rain? Should we start a scientific study?

That's exactly the point. He called my story anecdotal evidence. Which it was...just like all the stories he shares about how people feel.

[TT-SEA]

Tim, what is this tree in the foreground [right side] with red branches?

 

Coral Bark Japanese Maple... we bought them at Costco a few years back.   We have 10 of them now.   They add color to the yard in the winter with their red bark and look awesome in the summer and put on quite a show in the fall.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows a totally dry weekend for everyone except maybe Vancouver Island.

 

Previous run had rain approaching Saturday afternoon and a rainy Sunday.

 

Update: mostly dry for Monday as well and back to really nice on Tuesday.   Things are improving!

[BLI snowman]

46 with moderate rain.  Over 4" now on the month.

[epiceast]

12Z ECMWF shows a totally dry weekend for everyone except maybe Vancouver Island.

 

Previous run had rain approaching Saturday afternoon and a rainy Sunday.

 

Update: mostly dry for Monday as well and back to really nice on Tuesday.   Things are improving!

Looks terrible here, for the weekend and rest of this week. Maybe a nice day on hour 240.

[TT-SEA]

Looks terrible here, for the weekend and rest of this week. Maybe a nice day on hour 240.

 

Saturday is totally dry and nice up there as well.     A little light rain on Sunday afternoon just reaching down to your area.

 

Monday is clearing up there and Tuesday and Wednesday are dry per the 12Z ECMWF.

 

Actually shows a weak system with showers again at hour 240.  

[Jesse]

Saturday is totally dry and nice up there as well. A little light rain on Sunday afternoon just reaching down to your area.

 

Monday is clearing up there and Tuesday and Wednesday are dry per the 12Z ECMWF.

 

Actually shows a weak system with showers again at hour 240.

Maybe his definition of nice is different than yours? That is the trouble with using subjective qualifiers to describe the weather. Sunny, warm or dry should be used instead of "nice", if that is your personal definition.

[TT-SEA]

Maybe his definition of nice is different than yours? That is the trouble with using subjective qualifiers to describe the weather. Sunny, warm or dry should be used instead of "nice", if that is your personal definition.

 

I am 100% positive that his definition of terrible would not be a beautiful Saturday... and a mostly dry Sunday.  

[Jesse]

I am 100% positive that his definition of terrible would not be a beautiful Saturday... and a mostly dry Sunday.  

 

Who knows. He's a skier and also seems to like late season snow events. 

 

That said, I think the NW flow pattern as advertised starting later this week would be something you and I both like. Would love to see this persistent offshore trough finally shift inland.

[TT-SEA]

Who knows. He's a skier and also seems to like late season snow events. 

 

That said, I think the NW flow pattern as advertised starting later this week would be something you and I both like. Would love to see this persistent offshore trough finally shift inland.

 

I am 100% sure his description of "terrible" was related to his belief that the 12Z ECMWF showed rain all weekend for his area.

 

I get what you are saying in general... but I know him well enough.  

[epiceast]

Well sometimes it's really hard to read the Euro because you only get a general idea of whats going on every 24 hours. And yea I agree Thursday would be the nicest day, considering it will be basically winter with almost valley floor snow levels, and quite a bit of new snow previous 2 days. Saturday might turn out nice by warm season rules, but I'm not keeping my fingers crossed. The snow will definitely be freshly rotten slush though!

[Front Ranger]

Mostly dry day in Seattle, beautiful evening.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Another mild sunny day here, we couldn't even catch so much as a passing shower. Now up to 11 days without significant rainfall. Hopefully we can score a rainier pattern in May/June to avoid a 3rd crippling summer drought.

[TT-SEA]

Another mild sunny day here, we couldn't even catch so much as a passing shower. Now up to 11 days without significant rainfall. Hopefully we can score a rainier pattern in May/June to avoid a 3rd crippling summer drought.

 

Almost the entire West Coast from CA to BC is very wet.   Can you have a "crippling drought" within a 5-square mile area of dryness in the middle of a completely soaked region?   

 

Even other parts of Victoria are wet.   And Vancouver Island is very wet.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Almost the entire West Coast from CA to BC is very wet.   Can you have a "crippling drought" within a 5-square mile area of dryness in the middle of a completely soaked region?   

 

Even other parts of Victoria are wet.   And Vancouver Island is very wet.

 

I wouldn't have thought it possible, but here we are, it'll be a lot worse when we enter a "dry" pattern. The crazy thing is we've had less rain than places like Sequim and Port Townsend, which are smack in the middle of the traditional rainshadow. Seems like the rainless hole has shifted north and west of its traditional location this month.

 

http://apetersongeog1202.businesscatalyst.com/images/olympicrain_shadow3.gif

[TT-SEA]

I wouldn't have thought it possible, but here we are, it'll be a lot worse when we enter a "dry" pattern. The crazy thing is we've had less rain than places like Sequim and Port Townsend, which are smack in the middle of the traditional rainshadow. Seems like the rainless hole has shifted north and west of its traditional location this month.

 

http://apetersongeog1202.businesscatalyst.com/images/olympicrain_shadow3.gif

 

 

Well... I assure you that our region is WAAAAAAAAAAAAAY overdue for a drier pattern.   So its coming.  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Well... I assure you that our region is WAAAAAAAAAAAAAY overdue for a drier pattern.   So its coming.  

 

My location is due for a wet pattern, can't go both ways (at least I don't think it can). It's been awhile since we've had a rainy May so maybe we'll luck out this year   

[TT-SEA]

My location is due for a wet pattern, can't go both ways (at least I don't think it can). It's been awhile since we've had a rainy May so maybe we'll luck out this year 

 

 

You are in tiny spot of dry within a record-setting regionwide rainy pattern for the last 3 months.    I doubt nature is due to deliver a rainy pattern to the PNW.      

[BLI snowman]

One thing that's for sure is I think we can all agree that it's been way too wet/dry lately.

[Deweydog]

Rain is ending here and there's no guarantee it will ever rain again.

[stuffradio]

I planted 62 melon seeds today and there was already 30 planted. Yum yum

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z shows some possible relief this weekend, still a few days out but that would be more of a westerly flow:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017042500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_21.png

[Jesse]

The 0z shows some possible relief this weekend, still a few days out but that would be more of a westerly flow:

 

 

Glad to see you scoring up there! Even a small change in 500mb trajectory could mean wetter for you but drier for others.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Someone who was my age the last time the Blazers won the title is now in their 70s....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Glad to see you scoring up there! Even a small change in 500mb trajectory could mean wetter for you but drier for others.

 

What we need to hope for is wet there and wet here!

[stuffradio]

What we need to hope for is wet there and wet here!

Only wet on Van Island. I have no desire to reach 100% above average precipitation for the month.

[TT-SEA]

What we need to hope for is wet there and wet here!

 

Trolling!   

[Jesse]

At least today was nice and cool.

[Deweydog]

Someone who was my age the last time the Blazers won the title is now in their 70s....

I really thought this was their year.