April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

It is true. Some just won't admit it.

Its been unusually bad. It is what it is.

[TT-SEA]

You know it's spring when every other post is a Tim-per tantrum.

Too bad Jim disappears this time of year. We are in complete agreement in the spring most years. He would have some choice words to describe this weather.

[DareDuck]

Oh Tim. I'm just amused at how brilliantly VancouverIslandSouth is trolling you. I honestly didn't know he had it in him.

I was thinking the same. It couldn't be a more perfect passive-aggressive troll job.

[stuffradio]

All I wanted was something less than daily blowtorching. But nature didn't care then and doesn't care now.

How do you know? Did you ask nature if it cared?

[DareDuck]

Its been unusually bad. It is what it is.

I totally agree. Wish we had some warmer, drier periods. I'm getting my fill of warmth and sun in southern CA though. You're heading out to get some too. So maybe we don't need 25 posts a day about the persistent rain? Unless you got some stats, unusual weather/climate stats are interesting.

[Dave]

I was thinking the same. It couldn't be a more perfect passive-aggressive troll job.

Are there any remnant snow piles left around town?  When I last visited a few months ago, I saw some giants.  

[BLI snowman]

If this upcoming warmish/dryish period doesn't verify, I'm gonna fckn lose it.

Up here at least we'll be lucky to hit 65 again any time soon.

[TT-SEA]

Up here at least we'll be lucky to hit 65 again any time soon.

 

FWIW... the 12Z ECMWF showed close to 80 there next Wednesday.  

 

The 00Z GFS would be close to that on Thursday before crashing.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017042600/gfs_z500_mslp_us_37.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017042600/gfs_T850a_us_37.png

[DareDuck]

Are there any remnant snow piles left around town? When I last visited a few months ago, I saw some giants.

Oh no, we've been snow free for quite awhile now. Things were greening up pretty nicely before I left, should be better when I'm back.

 

Interestingly Mt Bachelor has a 131" base at 6300' but there is relatively little snow below 5000'. Well, I've been gone a week so I don't know how the snow is below 6000'.

[BLI snowman]

FWIW... the 12Z ECMWF showed close to 80 there next Wednesday.

 

The 00Z GFS would be close to that on Thursday before crashing.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017042600/gfs_z500_mslp_us_37.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017042600/gfs_T850a_us_37.png

Shave 10 or 11 degrees off from that and sprinkle some stratus into the picture and you got yourself a tremendously plausible scenario!

[TT-SEA]

Shave 10 or 11 degrees off from that and sprinkle some stratus into the picture and you got yourself a tremendously plausible scenario!

 

Not if that verified... but even your scenario is above 65.  

[Jesse]

Oh no, we've been snow free for quite awhile now. Things were greening up pretty nicely before I left, should be better when I'm back.

 

Interestingly Mt Bachelor has a 131" base at 6300' but there is relatively little snow below 5000'. Well, I've been gone a week so I don't know how the snow is below 6000'.

There must be some snow piles around town still. We still have big ones at sea level in the Gorge.

 

The Cascades are doing really well. Elevations above 4,000' got a foot or more in spots yesterday. The closest mid-elevation snotel site to Mount Bachelor that I can find (Hogg Rock, 4,700') has 52" on the ground currently, which is above average for this point in the season. Every mid-elevation snotel site I've looked at is above average, in fact.

[TT-SEA]

There must be some snow piles around town still. We still have big ones at sea level in the Gorge.

 

The Cascades are doing really well. Elevations above 4,000' got a foot or more in spots yesterday. The closest mid-elevation sno tel site to Mount Bachelor that I can find (Hogg Rock, 4,700') has 52" on the ground currently, which is above average for this point in the season.

 

At sea level?   That is impressive.  

 

We had some 10-foot piles of snow in February into early March in the neighborhood near us and they have been gone for a long time now.

[Dave]

Oh no, we've been snow free for quite awhile now. Things were greening up pretty nicely before I left, should be better when I'm back.

 

Interestingly Mt Bachelor has a 131" base at 6300' but there is relatively little snow below 5000'. Well, I've been gone a week so I don't know how the snow is below 6000'.

Hoodoo has a 102" base at 4800 feet.  Yes, they get much more moisture than central Oregon, so it's not exactly comparable. I was hoping a giant Bend snow pile would last until May to further cement the historic nature of this winter.

[Jesse]

At sea level?   That is impressive.  

 

We had some 10-foot piles of snow in February into early March in the neighborhood near us and they have been gone for a long time now.

 

Yes, there are several visible from I-84 down at river level (100'-200'). And they are still quite large. 

 

We were out in Hood River for the Hard Pressed Cider Fest on Saturday and I was pretty surprised to see them still hanging around on the drive out. 

[DareDuck]

There must be some snow piles around town still. We still have big ones at sea level in the Gorge.

 

The Cascades are doing really well. Elevations above 4,000' got a foot or more in spots yesterday. The closest mid-elevation snotel site to Mount Bachelor that I can find (Hogg Rock, 4,700') has 52" on the ground currently, which is above average for this point in the season. Every mid-elevation snotel site I've looked at is above average, in fact.

Along the western edge of town closer to 3800-4000' there are some snow piles, but none in town. There has been enough spring sun and long periods of SW winds to melt the snow. Hogg Rock is right near Santiam and from the pics I've seen the snowpack is solid up there. As soon as you get real close to the crest, the snow is in good shape.

 

Nice to hear that the snowpack has been building since I left. I'll be backcountry skiing well into the summer.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Your homeland model is siding with the Europeans for Saturday...

 

 

It does eventually break through and give us some drought-relief, but it's nowhere near as nice as the GFS. This would be a welcome change of pace for us rain shadow residents:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2017042600/images_d2/wa_pcp24.108.0000.gif

[DareDuck]

Hoodoo has a 102" base at 4800 feet. Yes, they get much more moisture than central Oregon, so it's not exactly comparable. I was hoping a giant Bend snow pile would last until May to further cement the historic nature of this winter.

There was the potential for some real long last snow piles but it's been slightly warmer than average, with periods of sun, rain, and warm winds down here away from the crest. It's definitely been a truly historic winter, could have been even more amazing with a good March and April, but we got the snow when it counted most. Also interesting to note how Bend reacted to its biggest winter in 25 years. Last time we got this much snow there were close to 20,000 people in Bend, now there are more than 80,000. It was very difficult for them and there were some issues, but this was their first time dealing with this much snow with this many people.

[TT-SEA]

It does eventually break through and give us some drought-relief, but it's nowhere near as nice as the GFS. This would be a welcome change of pace for us rain shadow residents:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2017042600/images_d2/wa_pcp24.108.0000.gif

 

  

Prayers coming your way!     This was the lead story on the news tonight... our nations watch with bated breath as the future of your decimated rain-shadow region hangs in a delicate balance.

[BLI snowman]

Not if that verified... but even your scenario is above 65.

It won't.

[TT-SEA]

It won't.

Probably true.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Prayers coming your way!     This was the lead story on the news tonight... our nations watch with bated breath as the future of your decimated rain-shadow region hangs in a delicate balance.

 

That's the real story; or at least it will be if May/June don't deliver. I haven't heard anyone around here complain about the "rain", sure there's been the odd complaint about the "cold"; but that's just because people have short memories and forget that the last couple years were not normal by any stretch. What we're getting right now far better matches what is normal in this climate.

[TT-SEA]

That's the real story; or at least it will be if May/June don't deliver. I haven't heard anyone around here complain about the "rain", sure there's been the odd complaint about the "cold"; but that's just because people have short memories and forget that the last couple years were not normal by any stretch. What we're getting right now far better matches what is normal in this climate.

 

Why would people complain about the rain when its not rainy there?   

 

I am sure if Seattle had your weather... there would no complaints around here either.   But that is far from the case.

[WeatherArchive]

The 18z and ensembles says we stay in a generally cooler than average regime. Should be brighter and drier with more NW flow and brief periods of shortwave ridging, though.

Any good frost risks or are we done with those till fall?  It would be unheard of to have May frost in Salem.  I know April is still pretty iffy but now we are closer to the May regime.  

 

I do hope we have one more. I like chilly night weather.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very wet morning

[Jesse]

Any good frost risks or are we done with those till fall? It would be unheard of to have May frost in Salem. I know April is still pretty iffy but now we are closer to the May regime.

 

I do hope we have one more. I like chilly night weather.

I do too Kyle.

 

May frost has happened in Salem many times. Right now, our next best shot at a cool night looks like Friday night. Wouldn't surprise me for some valley locations to get down in the 30s by Saturday morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I had 0.75" of rain since midnight when I left for work today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 7.06" of rain on the month. Which is about average. We'll end up a little above average. Rain has been very persistent though this month. 20 out of 26 days. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS still on board with a mid-week warm spell.

[Front Ranger]

Fairly distinct north/south gradient with precip this month from Bellingham to Portland. 

 

BLI: 2.69" (only .01" since the 15th, similar to what VancouuverIslandSouth has been reporting)

Seattle WFO: 3.42"

PDX: 4.26"

[epiceast]

Along the western edge of town closer to 3800-4000' there are some snow piles, but none in town. There has been enough spring sun and long periods of SW winds to melt the snow. Hogg Rock is right near Santiam and from the pics I've seen the snowpack is solid up there. As soon as you get real close to the crest, the snow is in good shape.

 

Nice to hear that the snowpack has been building since I left. I'll be backcountry skiing well into the summer.

Yea I am hoping to ski some Oregon volcanoes and volcano like things this June. Will most likely attempt south sister.

[ShawniganLake]

Fairly distinct north/south gradient with precip this month from Bellingham to Portland.

 

BLI: 2.69" (only .01" since the 15th, similar to what VancouuverIslandSouth has been reporting)

Seattle WFO: 3.42"

PDX: 4.26"

BLI has been in the rain shadow. Abbotsford is over 6".

[Jesse]

Yea I am hoping to ski some Oregon volcanoes and volcano like things this June. Will most likely attempt south sister.

Volcano like things?

[Jesse]

Mid-week ridge looks warm (mid-70s?) but short lived on the 12z Euro. Huge crash follows.

 

In the short-mid range, any weekend warmth has pretty much disappeared.

[BLI snowman]

BLI has been in the rain shadow. Abbotsford is over 6".

 

Yeah, BLI isn't the best barometer for the region up there since they are still heavily shadowed in SW flow relative to places just a few miles north and east.

[epiceast]

Volcano like things?

I'm almost certain you're trolling me with your nitpicking, but the right term is shield volcanoes(Thielsen, 3 fingered jack, diamond etc).

[Jesse]

I'm almost certain you're trolling me with your nitpicking, but the right term is shield volcanoes(Thielsen, 3 fingered jack, diamond etc).

Actually no. As someone with an interest in geology I was legitimately curious what you meant.

 

The ones you are talking about are composite (strato) volcanoes, not shield volcanoes. Although it's hard to tell with Thielsen and Three Fingered Jack since they have both been deeply eroded by glaciers, leaving behind only the hardest rock in a "horn" or spire.

 

Thielsen actually has the nickname "lightning rod of the Cascades", and it lives up to it. On top of its peak you can actually find fulgurites within the rock, which are fused glass like tubes caused by repeated encounters with electrical storms.

[TT-SEA]

Mid-week ridge looks warm (mid-70s?) but short lived on the 12z Euro. Huge crash follows.

 

In the short-mid range, any weekend warmth has pretty much disappeared.

Pretty watered down ridge... and the ECMWF is now much wetter for Saturday. All good. October is getting closer.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, BLI isn't the best barometer for the region up there since they are still heavily shadowed in SW flow relative to places just a few miles north and east.

 

Sure, but doesn't change my point about the N/S gradient recently. Been very pronounced the second half of the month.

 

[TT-SEA]

81 here with a dewpoint of 62 here in Charleston. Very lush. No visible sign of drought. Absolutely gorgeous weather.

 

I expected Charleston to be a little dingy and dirty... but its the opposite.