April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

85 and sunny here today... we really love Charleston. And the history here is fascinating.

 

 

 

Jesse is hoping you move there and donate your current home to disaffected "refugees."

[TT-SEA]

Jesse is hoping you move there a donate your current home to disaffected "refugees."

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Menacing clear skies are threatening our chance at more convective rains. Parts of town got dumped on and most of Victoria proper saw at least some showers, but the sun was never far away and I could tell people were on edge about it. Fortunately the 18z GFS brings us several more chances to score over the next week. Saturday is almost a lock now even Monday doesn't look half bad  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017042718/gfs_mslp_pcpn_nwus_18.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful pics btw

[TT-SEA]

Front that was approaching on Monday on previous runs looks washed out on the 00Z GFS run.

 

After the quick moving front on Saturday night and we might be starting a period of much improved weather next week.   Glad we will be home to enjoy it.  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Front that was approaching on Monday on previous runs looks washed out on the 00Z GFS run.

 

After the quick moving front on Saturday night and we might be starting a period of much improved weather next week.   Glad we will be home to enjoy it.  

 

The Monday system sucks on the 0z but it's more than made up for by a nice rainy Wednesday. I think that's the reason it's so watered down, the Wednesday system comes in stronger and tears apart the weaker system ahead of it. We should be in good shape to get either one or both systems. Also some hints of another shot of colder rain (maybe more convective) later in the week.

[Jesse]

Could be chilly tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 40 right now. 

 

Really looking forward to housing climate refugees in the next few years. Al Gore says only 15 trillion dollars can save our planet. Seems like such a small price to pay for our existence! 

[Jesse]

Down to 40 right now.

 

Really looking forward to housing climate refugees in the next few years. Al Gore says only 15 trillion dollars can save our planet. Seems like such a small price to pay for our existence!

Drinking tonight?

[ShawniganLake]

Some heavy showers passed through this afternoon, even heard some reports of a little hail. It was a nice morning but the rain was a welcome sight. Just enough to freshen up the mud.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Drinking tonight?

I don't drink.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some heavy showers passed through this afternoon, even heard some reports of a little hail. It was a nice morning but the rain was a welcome sight. Just enough to freshen up the mud.

I can't remember are you in a drought?

[ShawniganLake]

I can't remember are you in a drought?

Not even close. Very soggy here.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Some heavy showers passed through this afternoon, even heard some reports of a little hail. It was a nice morning but the rain was a welcome sight. Just enough to freshen up the mud.

 

Showers around here too, but nothing heavy. The heaviest stuff was focused up around Gordon Head, kind of crazy that area is only about 3~5km away but is already up to 56mm, whereas this area is still sitting at 36mm. There are some crazy rainfall gradients this month.

[Phil]

Front that was approaching on Monday on previous runs looks washed out on the 00Z GFS run.

 

After the quick moving front on Saturday night and we might be starting a period of much improved weather next week. Glad we will be home to enjoy it.

Hmm, what was that about 1993 and a warm May?

[ShawniganLake]

Showers around here too, but nothing heavy. The heaviest stuff was focused up around Gordon Head, kind of crazy that area is only about 3~5km away but is already up to 56mm, whereas this area is still sitting at 36mm. There are some crazy rainfall gradients this month.

The showers today have me at around 100mm for the month.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The showers today have me at around 100mm for the month.

 

How much does your area average in April? My best guess for this area is somewhere between 35~45mm, so still pretty much an average April here.

[Timmy Supercell]

NWS hinting at my first warm core convection of the year in my area next Thursday. Southerly flow, 75-80 degree temps and instability should mean something. It may be subject to change though, very rarely does that stick around on AFD's 7-8 days ahead of time.

[Phil]

With the big -NAO upcoming to open May, it's worth noting that there are a select few years that featured the deep -NAO in May under a weak +ENSO with EPAC/WHEM bias. These are 2012, 1995, 1993, and 1980, with 2010 also there, but it's a shoddy ENSO match.

 

These are all distinct analogs, but they're similar on the large scale in the long run, save 2010.

[ShawniganLake]

How much does your area average in April? My best guess for this area is somewhere between 35~45mm, so still pretty much an average April here.

Average is 70mm.

[Phil]

Since 1950, the only to years to open May with such an anomalous -NAO are 1980 and 1993. More modest examples include 1954 and 2008, but those aren't the best analogs for the upcoming warm season due to differences in the tropics.

[wx_statman]

Since 1950, the only to years to open May with such an anomalous -NAO are 1980 and 1993. More modest examples include 1954 and 2008, but those aren't the best analogs for the upcoming warm season due to differences in the tropics.

 

Both notably cool summers in the PNW, for what its worth.

[jcmcgaffey]

The convergence zone has been very persistent the last 3-4 days.  It's funny as we have been talking about downtown Seattle being drier than SEA which is normally the case except for the last week.

 

My area got another half inch yesterday afternoon through last night.  SEA had virtually nothing again.  North Seattle has had several inches over the last 3-4 days and some places up against the cascades have received over 10".

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ended up with 0.45" of rain yesterday, 8.37" on the month. Average is 6.20". So 135% of average.

[ShawniganLake]

34F here this morning with light frost.

[Front Ranger]

Could be chilly tonight.

 

Station of the gods made it to around freezing.

[Front Ranger]

The convergence zone has been very persistent the last 3-4 days.  It's funny as we have been talking about downtown Seattle being drier than SEA which is normally the case except for the last week.

 

My area got another half inch yesterday afternoon through last night.  SEA had virtually nothing again.  North Seattle has had several inches over the last 3-4 days and some places up against the cascades have received over 10".

 

Seattle WFO (not in downtown Seattle but much closer than SEA) only measured .01" yesterday. .46" two days ago, though.

[Jesse]

Station of the gods made it to around freezing.

We hit 37 here.

[Front Ranger]

Front that was approaching on Monday on previous runs looks washed out on the 00Z GFS run.

 

After the quick moving front on Saturday night and we might be starting a period of much improved weather next week.   Glad we will be home to enjoy it.  

 

You're missing a lovely day in Seattle today.

 

[TT-SEA]

You're missing a lovely day in Seattle today.

 

Screenshot_12.png

 

Its been pouring rain at home all morning... and very gloomy.      Just trying to break up now.   A little respite this evening and tomorrow morning and then it rains tomorrow afternoon through Sunday.   

 

Not missing anything at all at home.     Lunch break is over... back to the pool.  

 

Live view at home...

 

[Front Ranger]

Its been pouring rain at home all morning... and very gloomy.      Just trying to break up now.   A little respite this evening and tomorrow morning and then it rains tomorrow afternoon through Sunday.   

 

Not missing anything at all at home.  

 

Pics or it didn't happen. 

[TT-SEA]

Pics or it didn't happen. 

 

In case you missed it... live view from home:

 

[TT-SEA]

One more... better shot and you can see its still raining.   Of course.

 

[Front Ranger]

What a terrible place to live, when blue skies are so close.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It was raining on my way into work this morning. Got down to 33 this morning though.

 

Timberline s base is 203" now.

[TT-SEA]

What a terrible place to live, when blue skies are so close.

 

Truly is on days like this.  

 

Best to live near the water...

 

[BLI snowman]

Made it to 34 this morning here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A fairly cloudy morning here in Salem, but there are sunbreaks. It is a fairly nice day. 

[Front Ranger]

32 at OLM! And Shelton.

[Deweydog]

Any chance the precip late on Saturday starts as snow down here?