August 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Wow, impressive signal off the Euro Weeklies for a long cool period starting end of month and through at least mid Sept...

 

 

[james1976]

Really loving how the models are looking. Maybe some early foliage??

Dumped out 0.90" from the rain gauge from the Monday AM storms.

[Tom]

You can def feel the uptick in humidity throughout the day yesterday.  Finally feels like a normal August day around these parts.  Although, I have to say, I sorta have gotten used to the drier air mass we have been enjoying the first 2 weeks of the month.  Might have to turn the A/C on tomorrow for the first time in a long while.  $ave that Ca$h!

[Tom]

Really loving how the models are looking. Maybe some early foliage??

Dumped out 0.90" from the rain gauge from the Monday AM storms.

Certainly on the table and early Frosts...maybe a Freeze the farther north you go next month???  An interesting set of circumstances may be on the table for farmers/crops next month.  Something to pay attention to going forward.

[james1976]

Certainly on the table and early Frosts...maybe a Freeze the farther north you go next month??? An interesting set of circumstances may be on the table for farmers/crops next month. Something to pay attention to going forward.

Yeah and the crops are looking real good around these parts.

[Tom]

JAMSTEC having some sort of technical issues so their seasonal outlooks seem like they will be delayed...bummer...

[Minny_Weather]

Lincoln recorded the first above average day of the month yesterday! The mean temp of 77 degrees is one degree above the August 14 average of 76.

[james1976]

My parents have a tree in their yard and a few of the leaves are turning red. My mom said thats the earliest she has seen leave change. Interesting.

[NEJeremy]

Had 1/2" of rain in about 20 minutes this morning from a nice line of storms/heavy rain. Hardest I've seen it rain in weeks.

[james1976]

Encouraging signs for a colder/snowier winter for the central CONUS. International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is suggesting a pattern favorable for snow lovers.

 

Temp...

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt_nmme/2017/aug2017/images/DJF18_NAm_tmp.gif

 

 

Precip...

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt_nmme/2017/aug2017/images/DJF18_NAm_pcp.gif

A tiny below normal precip bullseye over me.....lol.....but yeah as a whole for the CONUS it looks pretty solid. We are due!

[Tom]

My parents have a tree in their yard and a few of the leaves are turning red. My mom said thats the earliest she has seen leave change. Interesting.

Could also be due to the dryness...

[james1976]

Could also be due to the dryness...

Yeah i wonder that.

[Tom]

12z GEFS starting to hone in on the cool down end of the month and the target date of the 28th is still looking good.  I like the placement of the trough south of the Aleutians.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 15 trough/ridge placement is ideal for a cooler/wetter pattern heading into Sept...

 

 

I could see a couple severe wx outbreaks, esp if the cold fronts are stronger...

 

 

[james1976]

Is it ok to post this in the August thread? Farmer's Almanac just released their Winter outlook.

http://www.buckslocalnews.com/news/shorts-or-shovels-farmers-almanac-releases-its-winter-weather-outlook/article_cd1e6640-60ae-5423-9f87-d19d85d1069d.html

[Hawkeye]

The drought area of Iowa is finally getting some decent rainfall.  Yesterday, 1-2+ inches fell from central to se IA and this afternoon another band of good rain is hitting the severely dry area a bit farther south.

[Minny_Weather]

Is it ok to post this in the August thread? Farmer's Almanac just released their Winter outlook.

http://www.buckslocalnews.com/news/shorts-or-shovels-farmers-almanac-releases-its-winter-weather-outlook/article_cd1e6640-60ae-5423-9f87-d19d85d1069d.html

I'm sorry, that's not cold & snowy enough East of the Rockies to be a Farmer's Almanac forecast 

[Tom]

12z EPS suggesting that next weeks warmth will be brief and transient.  By Day 7, we are already seeing cooling in the Plains...the models has trended cooler in the 6-10 day.

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Here we go...Arctic temps starting the annual dive...forecast models suggest it should continue...

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png

[james1976]

Another great evening. 69° no wind and cloudy. Bonfire!

​And about 5 mins after I made this post it started raining lightly, lol. Looks like some bigger stuff out in W IA heading east!

[clintbeed1993]

We're already getting hyped for this winter in August?  Yeah, wasn't it the same way last year?  I really want to be optimistic, but it's so hard.  We've just been let down constantly over the last five to ten years.  Maybe this will be the year.  It has to turn around eventually right?

[Minny_Weather]

We're already getting hyped for this winter in August?  Yeah, wasn't it the same way last year?  I really want to be optimistic, but it's so hard.  We've just been let down constantly over the last five to ten years.  Maybe this will be the year.  It has to turn around eventually right?

Didn't you get the best of that blizzard in February 2016?

 

There is no possible way we get a year worse than last year. If that is the case, then the apocalypse is coming and we have bigger things to worry about than snow

[clintbeed1993]

Didn't you get the best of that blizzard in February 2016?

 

There is no possible way we get a year worse than last year. If that is the case, then the apocalypse is coming and we have bigger things to worry about than snow

 

Nope I actually was about 40 miles off.  I still ended up below average that winter as that was the only snowstorm and it was around 12 inches where I live.  The 20 inch stuff was a couple counties off.  I don't believe most areas in Nebraska have had an above average winter since 2009.

[jaster220]

I'm sorry, that's not cold & snowy enough East of the Rockies to be a Farmer's Almanac forecast 

 

Don't worry, JB's warming up his 150% of normal marker to fill in the voids left by those folks..   Seriously though, it seems they want to make New England & the Mid-Atlantic/East Coast the winners of yet another above average season. Not sure I can buy that if the Nino and it's major hang-over are finally gone. We'd need a pattern similar to 77/78 or 95/96 to see that play out. 

[jaster220]

Nope I actually was about 40 miles off.  I still ended up below average that winter as that was the only snowstorm and it was around 12 inches where I live.  The 20 inch stuff was a couple counties off.  I don't believe most areas in Nebraska have had an above average winter since 2009.

 

Meanwhile, beginning a decade ago with 07-08, SMI has enjoyed one of it's best decades for winter lovers since records were kept. The seasons ending in 08, 09, 10, 11, 14, 15, 16, & 17 all featured above avg snow and often major storms/blizzards and featured (2) 100" seasons for mby in a non-LES locale. As strange as last season was, I did way better than many peeps. One can get used to this generosity in the snow dept, then always worry that the other shoe is bound to drop sooner or later. Hopefully, I've moved on when it does, lol

[Tom]

I know we have some folks in NE that got hammered with 3-5" of rain over the last 24 hours...the idea that a wetter 2nd half of August is working out pretty well.

 

 

 

 

 

 

According to the 00z Euro high rez, a lot more rain heading towards the Plains/Midwest.  I'm sure the gardeners/farmers are liking these trends into next week.

 

[Tom]

I created a separate thread for those who wish to discuss our next cold season...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1618-preliminary-discussion-for-fall-winter-2017-18/

[Tom]

06z NAM suggesting a line of storms to develop in IA/WI towards this evening...

 

 

[jaster220]

I created a separate thread for those who wish to discuss our next cold season...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1618-preliminary-discussion-for-fall-winter-2017-18/

 

You started it! ..the thread and the disco, lol

[Tom]

You started it! ..the thread and the disco, lol

It needed to be done...lol...it will awaken the dormant ones waiting for their snow "fix"...

[jaster220]

My rainy morning commute yesterday was a pleasant surprise. Now to score some decent T-showers over the next day and a half. A small stretch of 94 actually has a green median - a rare Aug occurrence I'll add. Model maps are looking juicy even for SWMI so the trend is our friend. Loving the past 1.5 mos around here!

[gabel23]

I know we have some folks in NE that got hammered with 3-5" of rain over the last 24 hours...the idea that a wetter 2nd half of August is working out pretty well.

 

 

 

 

 

 

According to the 00z Euro high rez, a lot more rain heading towards the Plains/Midwest.  I'm sure the gardeners/farmers are liking these trends into next week.

 

Widespread 5-7" of rain in my county, including 5.2" in my gauge. We got water into our basement also, mostly because we are adding on to our house and we don't have an efficient gutter system. Many roads are washed out and rivers are out of their banks. Kind of crazy around these parts this morning! Today was supposed to be our first day of school and got canceled because the busses couldn't get around the gravel roads outside of town! 

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

Maybe move some posts like the (2) winter natl forecast maps and related posts to your new thd?

[Tom]

MN/Northwoods posters are going to get another wound up Summer storm system that will produce heavy rains today/tomorrow...

 

 

 

[Tom]

Widespread 5-7" of rain in my county, including 5.2" in my gauge. We got water into our basement also, mostly because we are adding on to our house and we don't have an efficient gutter system. Many roads are washed out and rivers are out of their banks. Kind of crazy around these parts this morning! Today was supposed to be our first day of school and got canceled because the busses couldn't get around the gravel roads outside of town! 

I was thinking about you when I made this post.  You guys got a taste of what we had to endure back in July when we had our flooding.  I think the pattern is going to be favorable for more heavy rains as we head into Sept.  More cold fronts interacting with GOM moisture is prob likely.

[Tom]

End of the month cool down be advertised by both GEFS/EPS...tons of blocking across N.A....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Could parts of the Plains see their first Frosts to close out the month or possibly over the Labor Day weekend????  Some EPS members look fairly Chilly...

 

[james1976]

[Tom]

12z NAM 3km...Chicago Split in full effect...I have a feeling that the stronger storms which will likely develop near the KC region will rob the moisture for any development up this way, unless your near the track of the SLP...

 

[Tom]

Latest HRRR run getting this SLP down to 996mb just SW of MSP tonight...neat little Autumn-like storm...

 

 

 

[Tom]

Models were way overdone on the warmth week 2 near the Lakes/Midwest...last 10 runs show what happens when blocking was underplayed...

 

 

Autumn-like air makes a re-appearance later next week...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

It needed to be done...lol...it will awaken the dormant ones waiting for their snow "fix"...

 

LOL - sounds like a cryptic term for REAL wx zombies

 

^^ at those temp maps - yikes! IF this pattern is mirrored into DJF this will be an impressive scenario. I noticed how strong this SLP was prog'd to get and was remembering the one I got caught in back on June 18th up at Grand Traverse Bay. Had that been during winter, it would've been a classic LehS "backside bliz" for sure. (oops, there I go talking 'bout winter again in the wrong thd )