Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

[jaster220]

^^^  Nice Torch!    (hopefully it's still lagging from last year's outcome..)

[jaster220]

You bet I do , but you get lake effect where you live, so something like this is more common for your area. I can receive a snowfall such as that pic from a big Winterstorm, whereas you can collect snowfall from LES as well.

 

Man, I hope we can get something like that this Winter. I mean, look at that beautiful snowfall on that pic. Can you imagine 2 days later, another footer+? Try now to imagine that pic with more snow.

 

I get LES in Marshall but I'm still 80 miles from Lk. Michigan so I'll nevva see anything like that at home.  At work, maybe..

[Tom]

Here's a post from a met diagnosing the latest ECWMF seasonal:

 

 

 

Huge flip! New Sept ECWMF seasonal now forecasts weak-mod La Nina for boreal winter. Different look in NoAm b/c of this- snowy NW-Midwest.

[Niko]

I get LES in Marshall but I'm still 80 miles from Lk. Michigan so I'll nevva see anything like that at home.  At work, maybe..

Yes, but ya still get LES, no matter how ya slice it. For me to get LES, they have to survive across the state, if they do, or maybe get LES from Lake Huron with a NNE wind ( or is it a north wind...you probably know the answer to that) and thats a BIG maybe. Jaster, you have it betta there in your neck of the woods, in terms of snowfall.

[Niko]

Cant wait for new Winter Outlooks to come out. Hopefully, snowy and frigid ones.

[jaster220]

Yes, but ya still get LES, no matter how ya slice it. For me to get LES, they have to survive across the state, if they do, or maybe get LES from Lake Huron with a NNE wind ( or is it a north wind...you probably know the answer to that) and thats a BIG maybe. Jaster, you have it betta there in your neck of the woods, in terms of snowfall.

Won't argue that last point..

[Niko]

Won't argue that last point..

[jaster220]

The Old Farmers Almanac was out when I grabbed groceries this evening. In a nutshell it has our sub shown as "mild and snowy" but with a funky wet streak up thru Illinois that ought to make Tom shake his head. Of note, they push the "cold and snowy" zone south down to OKwx's region. Almost like an 07-08 & 09-10 hybrid if you ask me.

[Niko]

The Old Farmers Almanac was out when I grabbed groceries this evening. In a nutshell it has our sub shown as "mild and snowy" but with a funky wet streak up thru Illinois that ought to make Tom shake his head. Of note, they push the "cold and snowy" zone south down to OKwx's region. Almost like an 07-08 & 09-10 hybrid if you ask me.

That sounds so ridiculous. I am shocked they even posted it. Dont trust a word they say.

[jaster220]

That sounds so ridiculous. I am shocked they even posted it. Dont trust a word they say.

 

I wish I could, but their map for SMI last year was pretty good i.e. "warm and wet"

 

 

Anyways, here's their map fwiw:

 

 

 

 

Yeah, Idk how you get cold down south with us warm. That'd be like a Nino winter where the cold is timed perfectly to give the TN valley on east to the Mid-Atlantic a snowstorm, then back to "torchy" in the Lakes. Now if they meant temps relative to norms, then "average and snowy" would've been better than mild and snowy. Even with that, in order for states to our south to get below normal, that air mass has to move in from the north, so we'd be pretty cold as well. Just see Feb 2015 for an example. If we have any snow cover, it'll be cold up our way as well.

[Minny_Weather]

I wish I could, but their map for SMI last year was pretty good i.e. "warm and wet"

 

 

Anyways, here's their map fwiw:

 

US_winter-2017-18 Old Farmers Almanac.jpg

 

 

Yeah, Idk how you get cold down south with us warm. That'd be like a Nino winter where the cold is timed perfectly to give the TN valley on east to the Mid-Atlantic a snowstorm, then back to "torchy" in the Lakes. Now if they meant temps relative to norms, then "average and snowy" would've been better than mild and snowy. Even with that, in order for states to our south to get below normal, that air mass has to move in from the north, so we'd be pretty cold as well. Just see Feb 2015 for an example. If we have any snow cover, it'll be cold up our way as well.

Wait woah woah. Let me get this straight. They have all the way down towards the Arklatex being cold and snowy. Meanwhile, Eastern MT and WY and Western ND and SD are mild and wet aka mild and rainy? I don't see how that is possible but okay.

[OKwx2k4]

Wait woah woah. Let me get this straight. They have all the way down towards the Arklatex being cold and snowy. Meanwhile, Eastern MT and WY and Western ND and SD are mild and wet aka mild and rainy? I don't see how that is possible but okay.

It would in all likelihood be versus averages not mild and rainy where there would normally be snow.

[jaster220]

It would in all likelihood be versus averages not mild and rainy where there would normally be snow.

 

nope. clearly says wet, not white. Just a screwy map in so many ways

[james1976]

Cold n snowy for Phoenix, Albuquerque and Dallas!!!

[Niko]

I wish I could, but their map for SMI last year was pretty good i.e. "warm and wet"

 

 

Anyways, here's their map fwiw:

 

US_winter-2017-18 Old Farmers Almanac.jpg

 

 

Yeah, Idk how you get cold down south with us warm. That'd be like a Nino winter where the cold is timed perfectly to give the TN valley on east to the Mid-Atlantic a snowstorm, then back to "torchy" in the Lakes. Now if they meant temps relative to norms, then "average and snowy" would've been better than mild and snowy. Even with that, in order for states to our south to get below normal, that air mass has to move in from the north, so we'd be pretty cold as well. Just see Feb 2015 for an example. If we have any snow cover, it'll be cold up our way as well.

Look at how they have Michigan set up......."Mild N Wet" for my area, "Mild and Snowy" for your area and "Mild and Dry" for NMI.  

[jaster220]

Look at how they have Michigan set up......."Mild N Wet" for my area, "Mild and Snowy" for your area and "Mild and Dry" for NMI.

 

 

 

Just a screwy map in so many ways

[jaster220]

Rumor is there's been a 6th solar ejection already. What happened to our "quiet sun"??

 

Isn't that potentially bad timing for our winter. No expert on the stuff, but seems I recall somebody saying if the timing is just right (all wrong if you love cold-n-snow) those things will wreck what would otherwise be a good season. SOOOO many ways to get hosed, omg

[GDR]

Just plan on a crapy winter and anything we do get is a bonus

[Tom]

Good news...starting to see some model consistency as the latest UKMET showing a La Nina for the heart of winter DJF...central-based for that matter...

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20170901/2cat_20170901_sst_months46_global_deter_public.png

 

 

 

Looks very active and wet....

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20170901/2cat_20170901_prec_months46_global_deter_public.png

 

 

SE Ridge???

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20170901/2cat_20170901_z500_months46_global_deter_public.png

 

 

Not terribly cold overall, except for the PAC NW...

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20170901/2cat_20170901_temp2m_months46_global_deter_public.png

[Tom]

Since the beginning of September, we saw Summer flip to Winter quickly across Alaska and northern Canada.  An early season snow cover has begun to take shape across N.A. and into Siberia.  The map below is the state of the snow cover on Sept 1st...

 

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_v3/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/AK/2017/ims2017244_alaska.gif

 

 

Here is yesterday's snow/ice cover map...you can see the increase of snow across the Archipelago regions of Canada...

 

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_v3/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/AK/2017/ims2017254_alaska.gif

 

 

Where do we go from here???  The pattern is favorable for more snow to build and continue to grow across Siberia/Archipelago and the mountains of Alaska.

 

 

 

 

The snow advance is nearing the pace of 2013-14 across N.A. at the moment.  I'm curious to see if we beat that year at some point this month.

[OKwx2k4]

One day this warm run of winters will end for me.

 

 

Hopefully it starts this year or next.

 

So far this month has behaved pretty much like I've hoped it would so can't be disappointed.

[Tom]

One day this warm run of winters will end for me.

 

OK-CD00.tavg.Winter.png

 

Hopefully it starts this year or next.

 

So far this month has behaved pretty much like I've hoped it would so can't be disappointed.

Hey, you have the UKMET in your camp showing a decent mean pressure pattern for cutters to dig far enough south for ya...very wet also...

 

 

 

[Niko]

Now, that's what I'm talking about......."2013-14 Outlook"

 

[jaster220]

 

Looks very active and wet....

 

Can't start soon enough LOL!  A bit concerning those temp avg's though. Would like to see that lower over our way.

[jaster220]

 

Now, that's what I'm talking about......."2013-14 Outlook"

 

My personal fave from 4 yrs ago

 

 

[Niko]

My personal fave from 4 yrs ago

 

Winter 2013-14 Snow Day (final).jpg

Sweet!

[Tom]

My personal fave from 4 yrs ago

 

Winter 2013-14 Snow Day (final).jpg

 

My personal fave from 4 yrs ago

 

Winter 2013-14 Snow Day (final).jpg

If you think about, that is almost as spot on as you can get for a long range forecast.  I think they did a good job.  Do they have any prelim outlooks out yet?

[jaster220]

One more, why not?

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

If you think about, that is almost as spot on as you can get for a long range forecast.  I think they did a good job.  Do they have any prelim outlooks out yet?

 

Sure was. As said, for some reason that season was a "slam-dunk" easy forecast for 80+% of those who were brave enough to tackle it. Wish they were all that straight-forward tbh. No, haven't looked for theirs yet, was still too early - might now though

[jaster220]

While we're hoping that a -QBO will be a big help this winter, strangely this snippit from Sep of '13 indicates they were expecting a +QBO (that was apparently overridden by other drivers)?

 

 

 

Also of note, this indicates some kind of correlation between hurricane season height placements, and 5 mos later for winter.

 

During Irma, we just had quite the trough over the GL's as well..

 

 

[jaster220]

One day this warm run of winters will end for me.

 

OK-CD00.tavg.Winter.png

 

Hopefully it starts this year or next.

 

So far this month has behaved pretty much like I've hoped it would so can't be disappointed.

 

3 of last 9 below, heck if you were batting in the majors you'd have an all-star avg @ .333     But yeah, look at those (3) DECADES of mostly below normal winters!

[Niko]

One more, why not?

 

Winter 2013-14 Snow Day Graphic.jpg

 

Winter_Outlook_2013-14.jpg

Nice Winter words...I like best where it saids "Copious amounts of snowfall"

[jaster220]

 

Do they have any prelim outlooks out yet?

 

 

Everyone's out to make a buck online, but looks like he publishes 1st call to the non-paying public Sept 30th

 

 

[Thunder98]

I predict that the California and the rest of the West Coast will see another Wet Winter.

[Niko]

I predict that the California and the rest of the West Coast will see another Wet Winter.

Hopefully, those lows can turn into "Panhandle Hooks" or "Colorado Lows" and hammer the GL's region with heavy snow and wind and other parts of the nation as well this Winter.

[Niko]

Everyone's out to make a buck online, but looks like he publishes 1st call to the non-paying public Sept 30th

 

20170912 Snow-day ad.PNG

Looks like a couple of ft of snow!

[jaster220]

Looks like a couple of ft of snow!

 

Could be many places in the mountains, but could be Boston a couple yrs ago as well. It was me in my driveway Feb '14

[Niko]

Could be many places in the mountains, but could be Boston a couple yrs ago as well. It was me in my driveway Feb '14

OOOOH...a guessing game , eh!

[jaster220]

So some IL poster on Amwx said he was at "another forum" where every winter is going to be another 2013-14 and everything's over-hyped about the coming winter. People pushed him and he said it was here, lol. Saying how the followers drink the koolaid in here. Too funny.

 

He seems to be rubbing peeps the wrong way when he pops in over there with warminista bias to his comments. Ofc, he could be posting under another name here, but I don't see any regular posters in here that would match that profile. Some traditional core winter posters are ready to have him gone, I know that..

[Niko]

Speaking of Winter, January 2015, Boston...take a look at this:

 

WHOA