September 2017 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

Buzz-sawed PR! Gonna be bad there..

 

 

[james1976]

Buzz-sawed PR! Gonna be bad there..

 

DKMwywEVAAAk3Dh.jpg

That's unbelievable. I heard the entire island is/was without power.

[Niko]

Beautiful evening outside.....absolutely gorgeous!

[Niko]

ORD just officially hit 91F...let the heat wave begin. I think we have a good chance at technically labeling this a "heat wave" with 3+ days straight at or above 90F.

Its gonna get mighty warm here as well. I will be pushing 90F once again, if not higher with more record highs possible. I already tied a record high couple of days ago.

[westMJim]

With today’s official high of 87° this is the warmest September 20^th since 1940 when it reached 88° It will go down in the record books as the 4^th warmest September 20^th with the record being 90° in 1931 it was 89 in 1914 and that 88° in 1940.  For tomorrow the record is 92° set in 1908 with 90° in 1931 in second place and 89° in 1970 in 3^rd place. The forecasted high for tomorrow is 93°

[Tom]

The temp overnight has only got down to a very warm/muggy 74F/67F...a step back into July!  Models did a good job painting the heavy rains falling over IA overnight and this morning right over the areas that need it most in the Severe/Extreme Drought.

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/current/current_usdm.png

 

 

 

Radar estimates up to 6" in parts of E IA...4" near MKE...

 

[westMJim]

No rain here in west Michigan last night. The grass is getting brown like you would expect in a dry hot mid summer.   The next several days look to be very warm (hot by September standards) As I said yesterday this looks like it Grand Rapids (and many areas of Michigan and the Great Lakes region) will have the warmest stretch of days this late in the season in recorded history. Lansing had a longer warmer stretch way back in 1891 but GR did not have records from then. So set back turn on the air if you have it and enjoy some history in the making.  Right now at my house I have a mid summer temperature reading of 72° with a DP of 67° at the a° airport the last reading there was 70° with a DP of 68° The record high for today in GRR is 92° set way back in 1908.

[Tom]

No rain here in west Michigan last night. The grass is getting brown like you would expect in a dry hot mid summer.   The next several days look to be very warm (hot by September standards) As I said yesterday this looks like it Grand Rapids (and many areas of Michigan and the Great Lakes region) will have the warmest stretch of days this late in the season in recorded history. Lansing had a longer warmer stretch way back in 1891 but GR did not have records from then. So set back turn on the air if you have it and enjoy some history in the making.  Right now at my house I have a mid summer temperature reading of 72° with a DP of 67° at the a° airport the last reading there was 70° with a DP of 68° The record high for today in GRR is 92° set way back in 1908.

No joke, like you said, this is looking like a record setting historic next few days around these parts.  ORD has never logged 4 or more consecutive 90F+ days in Sept this late in the season and its certainly looking like it may be a historic stretch.  Pop the bottles of Champagne!

[BrianJK]

Outside today is absolutely gorgeous. I have a feeling lots of records will be broken.

 

 

What records do you feel will be broken? 

 

 

Record high temps! Not outta the question. I am expected to be in the mid to upper 80s by the weekend. (90s not too far off)

 

 

While it will be warmer than average here in Southern Lower Michigan for the next several days we will by no means set any new record highs. Over the next 7 days (September 14^th to the 19^th) the record highs at Grand Rapids are 95°, 97°. 98°, 92°, 94°, 91°, and 90° at Lansing they are 94°,94°, 92°,93°,94°, 94° and 94° at Detroit they are 98°, 100°, 98°, 93°, 92°, 93° and 92°. Way up at the Sault their record highs for September 14^th to the 19^th are 89° 89°, 81°, 86°, 84°, 84° and 85° So even in mid-September it can and has gotten rather hot in Michigan.

 

 

Never say never! Ya neva know!

 

Crow, yummy!  

 

Nice call Niko.  Records are indeed being broken and likely to continue.  It was still 85 at 10:30 last night. 

[Niko]

Crow, yummy!  

 

Nice call Niko.  Records are indeed being broken and likely to continue.  It was still 85 at 10:30 last night. 

Thanks!

 

More records will be broken here as well this weekend.

[Niko]

Currently, Sunny and warm with readings already in the upper 70s and nearing near 90F today. Absolutely beautiful outside.

[Niko]

No joke, like you said, this is looking like a record setting historic next few days around these parts.  ORD has never logged 4 or more consecutive 90F+ days in Sept this late in the season and its certainly looking like it may be a historic stretch.  Pop the bottles of Champagne!

[Niko]

The temp overnight has only got down to a very warm/muggy 74F/67F...a step back into July!  Models did a good job painting the heavy rains falling over IA overnight and this morning right over the areas that need it most in the Severe/Extreme Drought.

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/current/current_usdm.png

 

 

 

Radar estimates up to 6" in parts of E IA...4" near MKE...

 

Jaster is in the D1 category . I wonder how that community is dealing with the drought situation. Ironically, I am in no color, which is hard to be believe.

[Hawkeye]

All of the rain last night fell in a narrow strip.  Models suggested I'd get into it as well, but nope.  Models now suggest one iffy chance of rain through early October.

[Niko]

Looking dry here as well. Cant believe that I am not in any drought category. My be an error on that. Its been too dry here for too long. At least a cat1 category for dryness.

[jaster220]

Crow, yummy!  

 

Nice call Niko.  Records are indeed being broken and likely to continue.  It was still 85 at 10:30 last night. 

 

LMAO, one of the funnier (yet true) posts anyone's put together here!   I actually wish WestMIJim had been correct though. 

[jaster220]

 

 

Jaster is in the D1 category  . I wonder how that community is dealing with the drought situation.

 

LOL!  - perfect example of delayed data gathering or something. That map was prolly accurate just prior to Sunday evening's deluge. Either they have yet to capture the past 2 or 3 rainfalls, or the storm covered a tiny, tiny area too small for them to portray? I don't think that's the case though. My daughter reported running into a major downpour Tuesday night between Jackson and Marshall, so mby was not the only real estate benefiting this week. I'm sure their next map will show some adjustments..

[Niko]

LOL!  - perfect example of delayed data gathering or something. That map was prolly accurate just prior to Sunday evening's deluge. Either they have yet to capture the past 2 or 3 rainfalls, or the storm covered a tiny, tiny area too small for them to portray? I don't think that's the case though. My daughter reported running into a major downpour Tuesday night between Jackson and Marshall, so mby was not the only real estate benefiting this week. I'm sure their next map will show some adjustments..

I hope so buddy! I am also sure that my area needs to get adjusted as well. As a matter a fact, SEMI needs to be a Cat2 for crying out loud, not Cat0. Its been dry here for a long time.

[Niko]

LMAO, one of the funnier (yet true) posts anyone's put together here!   I actually wish WestMIJim had been correct though. 

[westMJim]

I just got back from a walk and a few things that I noticed. 1. It is very warm and humid out. Here at my house I have a temperature of 87° with a DP of 74° at the airport the last readings there were 85/70. 2. Another thing I noticed is how much color for it only being September there is. There is a lot of yellows and some reds. Also, a good many acorn are now on the ground. 3. Now along with the leaves turning color they are also falling. In fact, I cannot recall this many leaves having fell in September it looks more like the second week of October more than the 3 week of September. Not sure what this means in the long term 

[Tom]

I just got back from a walk and a few things that I noticed. 1. It is very warm and humid out. Here at my house I have a temperature of 87° with a DP of 74° at the airport the last readings there were 85/70. 2. Another thing I noticed is how much color for it only being September there is. There is a lot of yellows and some reds. Also, a good many acorn are now on the ground. 3. Now along with the leaves turning color they are also falling. In fact, I cannot recall this many leaves having fell in September it looks more like the second week of October more than the 3 week of September. Not sure what this means in the long term 

I noticed the same thing today on my morning walk.  People area already piling up the leaves and the thought crossed my mind that if in fact it does turn really chilly in October, we could have almost all the trees bare by Halloween or 1st week of November.

[westMJim]

Update the 1PM reading for GRR 91° with a DP of 70° here at my house (about 20 miles NW of the airport) I have a temp of 89° with a dp of 74°

[Niko]

It is very uncomfortable out there. Pure July weather indeed. Current temp @ 85F, DP @ a very muggy 72F and RH holding in at 68% with lots of sunshine and temps are running at 90F+ today.

[Niko]

I just got back from a walk and a few things that I noticed. 1. It is very warm and humid out. Here at my house I have a temperature of 87° with a DP of 74° at the airport the last readings there were 85/70. 2. Another thing I noticed is how much color for it only being September there is. There is a lot of yellows and some reds. Also, a good many acorn are now on the ground. 3. Now along with the leaves turning color they are also falling. In fact, I cannot recall this many leaves having fell in September it looks more like the second week of October more than the 3 week of September. Not sure what this means in the long term 

Same here..lots of coloring going on and leaves are already starting to fall as well. I'll tell ya what this means......."Harsh Winter Coming"

[Niko]

As for the tropics, so far Maria is and will be no threat to the US mainland as of now. Fingers crossed. Lets have Jose and Maria outta here already.

 

Btw: not sure whats happening with Lee.

[westMJim]

Same here..lots of coloring going on and leaves are already starting to fall as well. I'll tell ya what this means......."Harsh Winter Coming"

That might be true. In looking at past dry September’s since 1950 (there are 3 that stand out. 2004, 1979 and 1969) none of those winters stand out 2 did have above average snow fall but not by all that much. And the winter of 79/80 was well below average snow fall wise (48.5” in GRR) my thinking for the leave change and falling are the dryness. But we shall see.  

[Niko]

That might be true. In looking at past dry September’s since 1950 (there are 3 that stand out. 2004, 1979 and 1969) none of those winters stand out 2 did have above average snow fall but not by all that much. And the winter of 79/80 was well below average snow fall wise (48.5” in GRR) my thinking for the leave change and falling are the dryness. But we shall see.  

Yup, that's a strong possibility and we could end up with below average snowfall afterall. So, yes, its all a waiting game. Time will tell.

[chances14]

I think the trees changing so early is due to the tree stress from the drought. IMBY here on the east side of michigan where the drought isn't as bad, trees are still mostly green.

[james1976]

Honestly, what else would be causing the early color and falling leaves? We're all dealing with dry weather. Its the only explanation that i have. Its nice to see though. Gets me in the fall mood.

[jaster220]

I think the trees changing so early is due to the tree stress from the drought. IMBY here on the east side of michigan where the drought isn't as bad, trees are still mostly green.

 

Idk Chances. It's a bit of a head-scratcher tbh. I've seen trees drop leaves due to drought stress, like back in '88. But I don't remember them having beautiful strong coloring, usually they just turned half brown, half dead and dropped. We've got some truly blazing colors going on down my way. We didn't have a formal freeze, but Marshall did have 3 morning in the 30's, and many hours of cold during that spell. This issue is deja-vu from 2013 when there was a lot of debate about how nature was showing strong signals of a harsh winter. But nobody understands nor can explain the mechanism(s) as to exactly how the future is conveyed to nature?  

[NEJeremy]

Not to be a Debbie Downer here, but sorry I don't believe a tree can predict the weather and know whether winter is coming early or not or whether it's going to be harsh. Sometimes I think we look for signs like this to try and create a belief in something we're wanting(like a harsh winter), just like the fuzzy bear caterpillar myth. There's been plenty of times where all I see are pics of those caterpillars with whatever color on them that means a bad winter, and then we get 9" of snow total and it's 40 degrees all winter long    

The reason a tree changes colors of course is due to lack of chlorophyl caused by some environmental factor(shorter days, drought, heat, colder nights, bugs, too much moisture, humans, etc). Changing early is because of one of those reasons, not because we're going to get a blizzard on October 5th this year and it's going to be below zero for all of December.

 

http://www.usna.usda.gov/PhotoGallery/FallFoliage/ScienceFallColor.html

[james1976]

Not to be a Debbie Downer here, but sorry I don't believe a tree can predict the weather and know whether winter is coming early or not or whether it's going to be harsh. Sometimes I think we look for signs like this to try and create a belief in something we're wanting(like a harsh winter), just like the fuzzy bear caterpillar myth. There's been plenty of times where all I see are pics of those caterpillars with whatever color on them that means a bad winter, and then we get 9" of snow total and it's 40 degrees all winter long

The reason a tree changes colors of course is due to lack of chlorophyl caused by some environmental factor(shorter days, drought, heat, colder nights, bugs, too much moisture, humans, etc). Changing early is because of one of those reasons, not because we're going to get a blizzard on October 5th this year and it's going to be below zero for all of December.

 

http://www.usna.usda.gov/PhotoGallery/FallFoliage/ScienceFallColor.html

Lol! Yup

[james1976]

[Minny_Weather]

 

 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

258 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

 

...Abnormally hot conditions expected on Friday for the Twin

Cities Metro area...

 

.Hot and humid air will yield maximum heat index values from 95 to

100 degrees across the Twin Cities metro area on Friday afternoon.

The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will

combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are

possible, especially for those who are active outdoors.

 

MNZ060>063-068>070-220400-

/O.NEW.KMPX.HT.Y.0004.170922T1800Z-170923T0000Z/

Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-Scott-Dakota-

Including the cities of Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater,

Chaska, Shakopee, and Hastings

258 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

 

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY...

 

The National Weather Service in Twin Cities/Chanhassen has issued

a Heat Advisory, which is in effect from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Friday.

 

* TEMPERATURE...lower 90s.

 

* HEAT INDICES...95 to 100.

 

* IMPACTS...heat illnesses are possible, especially for those who

are active outdoors

 

[BrianJK]

Currently 94 at O'hare.  Another one bites the dust...

[Minny_Weather]

Summer finally bugs off after a couple more days...

 

[westMJim]

Last reading at GRR is now 93° with a DP of 69° That 93°breaks the old record of 92° set in 1908! Here at my house I have a reading of an even hotter 95° with a dp of 70° 

[NEJeremy]

93 with a dp of 74 so the heat index is 104 here in Omaha

[Tom]

Today, we welcome Autumn at 3:02pm CST!  Breaking records again today...

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/wxstory/Tab2FileL.png

 

 

 

This is a neat tidbit regarding the record heat....2007 analog showing up...

 

...Record Late Season Heat Numbers...

Late September 2017 is seeing near to record warmth across a
sizable portion of the Midwest, including northern Illinois and
northwest Indiana. Following are climatological numbers to put
this ongoing late season heat into perspective.

**************************************************************
CHICAGO

Records date back to 1871.

Date 2017 High Record High 2017 Low Record Warm Minimum
--------------------------------------------------------------
9/20 92* 91 (1931) 62 73 (1931)
9/21 94* 92 (1970) 72 76 (1931)
9/22 92 (1956) 73 (1895)
9/23 91 (1937) 71 (1891)
9/24 91 (1891) 71 (1930)
9/25 90 (1933) 76 (1931)

* = Record

2017 has seen the latest 90+ since 2007 (Sept 24).

Latest 90+ degree reading on record: Oct 6, 1963 (94)
Latest 95+ degree reading on record: Sept 29, 1953 (99)

Latest stretches of 3+ consecutive days of 90+:
1. Sept 30-Oct 2, 1971
2. Sept 19-22, 1895

 

[westMJim]

With Yesterday’s high of 95° Grand Rapids not only set  new record high for September 21^st it also was the latest that it has ever been this hot. It was also the hottest day Grand Rapids has had in September since September 8^th 1960. The current record highs for the next several days is 90° so  as Tom said we will have a chance of more records to be set.