November 2017 Observations and Discussion

[gimmesnow]

I'm just wanting some cold, like lower 20s or colder, and I'm not seeing anything. Does all this chaos in the models give me some hope? I'm ready to snowboard!

[St Paul Storm]

Tracking models is fun......if any only if you don’t get invested in Day 8 fantasy storms. It’s early November. Let’s wait for the cold to settle in and see what happens. Without the boring NW flow that we’ve had the last 2 winters, I’d expect even more model mayhem this year.

[jaster220]

Where the help did this come from?? Another sneak-attack storm? Radio this eve said dry til LATE Saturday. I need dry wx for a critical outside project. Man talk about a parade!

 

 

 

In under a month's time I think we've been smacked by every type of system possible! Can this possibly sustain into winter, or will it just exhaust itself like a spent fire extinguisher?

[Niko]

My forecast is very soggy. Temps just a little below average.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

12z GFS / CMC continue to dry things up to no precip anywhere in the plains lol. 

[Minny_Weather]

12z GFS / CMC continue to dry things up to no precip anywhere in the plains lol.

I'm not disappointed. I can't think of any Novembers in recent history with respectable snowfall anyway. Besides 2014 if you want to count that.

 

With 1983 as a pleasant exception, most Novembers with respectable snowfall here turn into awful Decembers anyway.

[OKwx2k4]

Looking for corrections to colder and stormier in the models to start very soon. I think the end of this month will be pretty awesome. I think the last 10 days will basically be winter everywhere.

[OKwx2k4]

I'm not disappointed. I can't think of any Novembers in recent history with respectable snowfall anyway. Besides 2014 if you want to count that.

 

With 1983 as a pleasant exception, most Novembers with respectable snowfall here turn into awful Decembers anyway.

I think you all should be fine. If we get the winter I think we do, you may be wanting snow to melt.

[GDR]

What no snowstorms to track??

[Tom]

November boomers looking likely across the Midwest/Lower Lakes on Sunday!  SPC highlighting an Enhanced Risk for a large area in IL/IN/OH.

 

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.gif?1509709387797

[Andrew NE]

Overnight Euro showed a healthy storm around the 11/12-11/13 time frame as many have discussed the past week. It clobbers all of MN with a snowstorm.  Will be interesting to see if it continues to show up on models.

[Tom]

This could be one heckova severe wx outbreak, reminiscent to the Nov '13 tornado outbreak in IL.  Strong wording from SPC:

 

 

 

...Lower Great Lakes/Midwest into the OH Valley and Mid MS Valley...
Strong effective shear associated with the previously mentioned
southern-stream mid/upper-level jet will favor supercell structures
with any initial convective development along the warm front and
across the open warm sector. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates
and rich low-level moisture that will be present across this region,
potentially moderate buoyancy should develop by Sunday afternoon
even with only modest diurnal heating. Scattered large hail, some
possibly significant, may occur with these supercells, particularly
across parts of central/eastern IL into western IN where buoyancy
should be greatest. Damaging downdraft winds will also be a threat
with any supercell as low-level lapse rates steepen with diurnal
heating. The tornado potential should be maximized along the surface
warm front and east of the low where low-level winds will be locally
backed to a more southerly direction (versus generally southwesterly
elsewhere).

[Tom]

Last nights Euro weeklies somewhat relax the chance of any penetrating cold the week before Thanksgiving week.  BN temps generally are found N of I-80 where winter has already been noticeable lately.  The fighting ride will try and sneak back and this makes sense when you consider the expansive Bearing Sea ridge that is developing.  Once we get into Thanksgiving week, according to the Euro Weeklies, the pattern becomes more amplified and some places will start seeing accumulating snows.  Let's see how this pattern evolves.

 

FWIW, GEFS beginning to show more blocking later next week, which adds another caveat as to how/where the storm track will set up when the ridge fights back.

[jaster220]

November boomers looking likely across the Midwest/Lower Lakes on Sunday!  SPC highlighting an Enhanced Risk for a large area in IL/IN/OH.

 

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.gif?1509709387797

 

 

This could be one heckova severe wx outbreak, reminiscent to the Nov '13 tornado outbreak in IL.  Strong wording from SPC:

 

Man is that a deja-vu 11-17-13 severe wx map!  Keep those twisters out of #puremichigan tho, just like 4 yrs ago. Tbh, unlike that scenario, we won't be looking at a deep SLP, so this will be a more conventional severe outbreak without a peripheral damaging wind hazard. Basically, if you're in the true warm sector south of the WF, you're at significant risk. Otherwise, I don't see this as much at all for us further north. WF's have been staying south of prog'd lately so we have that to consider, not to mention my morning low in the mid-40's just doesn't scream traditional strong T-storm day for SMI. Another thing for those like me NOT looking for damaging storms in mby is that everything convective/severe has for the most part under-achieved if not down right failed for the past 3 warm seasons. So, now, in Nov that's going to somehow reverse itself?? My money would not be on that happening, if ofc I was a betting man..

[Minny_Weather]

Overnight Euro showed a healthy storm around the 11/12-11/13 time frame as many have discussed the past week. It clobbers all of MN with a snowstorm.  Will be interesting to see if it continues to show up on models.

That would verify the BSR system that we have been watching for the past month.

[Niko]

Yayyy, the sun is finally out. @46F.

[Niko]

Man is that a deja-vu 11-17-13 severe wx map!  Keep those twisters out of #puremichigan tho, just like 4 yrs ago. Tbh, unlike that scenario, we won't be looking at a deep SLP, so this will be a more conventional severe outbreak without a peripheral damaging wind hazard. Basically, if you're in the true warm sector south of the WF, you're at significant risk. Otherwise, I don't see this as much at all for us further north. WF's have been staying south of prog'd lately so we have that to consider, not to mention my morning low in the mid-40's just doesn't scream traditional strong T-storm day for SMI. Another thing for those like me NOT looking for damaging storms in mby is that everything convective/severe has for the most part under-achieved if not down right failed for the past 3 warm seasons. So, now, in Nov that's going to somehow reverse itself?? My money would not be on that happening, if ofc I was a betting man..

Look out Sunday Jaster......keep an eye out on the sky. Ma Nature will be a mean Bit*ch that day.

[St Paul Storm]

12z models continue dropping the accumulating snow south, now hitting the metro overnight into tomorrow morning with a few inches. The models really missed with the system earlier this week so we’ll see how this turns out.

 

Something big cooking up for next weekend? Models bouncing around again.

[james1976]

Model runs keep looking colder around here next week. Dry however.

[GDR]

Model runs keep looking colder around here next week. Dry however.

all of ia?

[james1976]

all of ia?

Cold n dry from what Ive seen.

[GDR]

Looks like 240 hrs of nothing

[jaster220]

12z models continue dropping the accumulating snow south, now hitting the metro overnight into tomorrow morning with a few inches. The models really missed with the system earlier this week so we’ll see how this turns out.

 

Something big cooking up for next weekend? Models bouncing around again.

 

I actually like the zonal pattern right now to lay down some snow cover north of me, but it's only a matter of time before something more amplified starts coming into focus. I've had a CO Low, Panhandler, GOMex Low, Clipper and whatever this weekend would be (tandem LP's?) so there's little doubt active is the way to lean in the new LRC

[jaster220]

This is ofc out there quite a ways, but it'd be one of those potent CF scenarios that could bring a dose of LES for my region. Yeah, I'm the only peep here that has any excitement for this, I get that..

 

 

[james1976]

This is ofc out there quite a ways, but it'd be one of those potent CF scenarios that could bring a dose of LES for my region. Yeah, I'm the only peep here that has any excitement for this, I get that..

 

20171103 12z 288hr GFS 850 mb Temps for Nov15.jpg

There may be a potent storm system moving through the upper midwest during that timeframe.

[jaster220]

Look out Sunday Jaster......keep an eye out on the sky. Ma Nature will be a mean Bit*ch that day.

 

You kidding? My high per Intellicast's hourly is only 58F, not exactly classic tornado conditions. And, lol per their hourly I have T-storms for 14 hrs straight!  That I'd like to see 

 

 

[jaster220]

There may be a potent storm system moving through the upper midwest during that timeframe.

 

I see. Verbatim, GGEM looks like a RN-->>SN event for SWMI with some follow-on LES on it's heals. We'll see. Lot's of ???? at this range. We're still dealing with trees that refuse to turn color. It's a stretch to say we're ready to do snowstorms over this way. Maybe by then tho..

[james1976]

I see. Verbatim, GGEM looks like a RN-->>SN event for SWMI with some follow-on LES on it's heals. We'll see. Lot's of ???? at this range. We're still dealing with trees that refuse to turn color. It's a stretch to say we're ready to do snowstorms over this way. Maybe by then tho..

I think its the BSR storm thats been showing up on some runs.

[St Paul Storm]

Getting raked right now. Nice E-W band has set up over the Cities. MPX says a quick 1-3” possible...just in time to destroy the evening commute.

 

Edit: 1”/hr rates right now.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Getting raked right now. Nice E-W band has set up over the Cities. MPX says a quick 1-3” possible...just in time to destroy the evening commute.

 

Edit: 1”/hr rates right now.

Anything sticking? Post a photo! I'd like to use it on my page. It's in my signature.

[St Paul Storm]

Here you go Craig. About 2” down so far in just over 2 hours. Guess it’s time to pull the dock out of the water. Lol.

[james1976]

Here you go Craig. About 2” down so far in just over 2 hours. Guess it’s time to pull the dock out of the water. Lol.

They will likely include the cities in an advisory. Looks like you will be doing well for a while judging from radar.

[Niko]

More rain for tomorrow nite here in SEMI and big time storms on Sunday.

[Niko]

Here you go Craig. About 2” down so far in just over 2 hours. Guess it’s time to pull the dock out of the water. Lol.

Cool pics....keep em coming!

[james1976]

18z GFS still showing the big storm around the 14th. This run has at least 2 different lows merging together. Might be the next period to watch after the cool tranquil week coming up next week.

[Niko]

Next week looks chilly, but dry. Highs and lows are expected to be in the 40s/20s.

[jaster220]

Really a picture perfect autumn day across SWMI. Blue skies, SUN, and a nice crisp N breeze. There was no doubt the season. Some final colorful trees were lit up nicely. High stayed in the 40's and dropped to 35F by 9:30! Chilly eve for HS football. Snow on the radar not far north in WMI, meanwhile I had to burn the last of my mower gas cutting my ever growing lawn again. Thought I might be done with the hard freezes and lots of cold days - wrong! Heck, if we torch late month I may be cutting in Dec..

[Minny_Weather]

Tomorrow with a high near 60 and a low near 40 may be the warmest day we have for a while. We're 2 weeks away from the normal high being 50. Since last week, highs above normal have been hard to come across. Only reason we end up near normal recently is because our low temperatures have been closer to normal. And it seems that's the case across most of the midwest. Seems like low daily temperature variations are commonplace in the lakes so far this season (such as a low of 42 and a high of 49).

[Niko]

Currently at 35F. Getting down to 30 tanite! Brrrrr

[Niko]

Tropics are looking quiet. That's good. Don't need anymore activity brewing out there. Hopefully, no more hurricanes occur.