November 2017 Observations and Discussion

[james1976]

Nice! Been wondering what others consider "Mid-range" & "Long Range" nowadays? I think both have grown since my youth and just curious if there's any official definition? I'm thinking short term is d1-3, MR is d4-8, and LR is d9-15 but idk tbh

I look at mid range around a week with a day either side......long range more like a week and a half and longer. That's just me, lol.

[westMJim]

Thanks for the kind words Jaster!  It humbles me to hear that my efforts actually do attract traffic on here.  TBH, I've never ventured beyond this forum and I will always remember and be thankful for Dominic Rocco who invited me on here a few years back.  R.I.P.   I've learned so much since I became a member on here and began really studying wx patterns, cycles and modeling behaviors/bias's. 

 

As far as putting myself out there, trying to analyze and make a long range prediction, it is challenging but this is what keeps my drive alive.  My calls are not always accurate, but when I hit 'em, "I grab a Dos Equis."  I find it fascinating to witness the cyclical nature and behavior of the weather and use that knowledge to see it evolve in future dates.  Hope everyone can open their minds up to it because it really is something "new" in the wx world that is just being accepted in various circles.

Tom keep up the great work. Not sure where you find the time to do you what you do. One of my passions has always been “How can we improve a long range seasonal forecast” In regards to analog years (if you will) I feel there is some good information to be found in them but my issue is the lack of complete past information and if you want a good comparison you must go back further (much further) than the few years that many of the ones that use analogs go. While some go back to 1950 (most do not go back that far) I know that for “averages” we go back 30 years but there are some who think that is “too long” and think that 10 years is good enough. My thinking on that is we should stay at 30 years as that is what we have been using. Well I will not keep rambling on but keep up the good work. 

[Money]

Good news is that 12z gfs still has the storm for next weekend

[Minny_Weather]

I'd be happy with rain next weekend. At least that indicates moisture.

[Money]

Gem is back to having a storm with 3-7 inches of snow in IA/IL/WI

[Tom]

Gotta keep in mind peeps anything beyond 120 hrs, the globals are still sorting and sifting data. Posts like "uh-oh storm cancel" or "no chance of a storm on such-n-such date" just don't make a lot of sense. Models have improved but they still struggle at those ranges.

Case point...12z GFS from yesterday vs today....trust the GFS???  You can argue the Euro is much better Day 5-6....but yes, in a season where we have already seen many last minute surprises, don't trust anything beyond HR 120.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[james1976]

GFS looks like a good hit for MN/WI this run. I'm just glad theres a storm on back to back runs. Getting in that 6-7 day range now so hopefully more consistency.

[james1976]

Man that front blew through here quick this morning. Congrats to whichever model caught onto that first. A few days ago my high was supposed to be 60 today. I hit 45 a couple hours ago and now I'm down to 40 already.

[Tom]

I can't find the post I made regarding the October 25th/26th Bearing Sea storm, but I was able to locate some maps on this storm from the GEPS.  Notice the trajectory this system took almost due west/east across the Aleutians and then eventually makes a hard left just before it hits Alaska.  I always felt this system had a good chance of being a "share the wealth" type so we'll see how this eventually plays out.  Glad to see the models coming back to a storm and with all the blocking now beginning to take hold, this storm has potential to slow and provide some fun days of tracking.

 

 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Tom, so when did you expect this share the wealth storm to hit this month?

[Tom]

Tom, so when did you expect this share the wealth storm to hit this month?

For the 11th/12th period that we have been posting above.

[OKwx2k4]

I can't find the post I made regarding the October 25th/26th Bearing Sea storm, but I was able to locate some maps on this storm from the GEPS. Notice the trajectory this system took almost due west/east across the Aleutians and then eventually makes a hard left just before it hits Alaska. I always felt this system had a good chance of being a "share the wealth" type so we'll see how this eventually plays out. Glad to see the models coming back to a storm and with all the blocking now beginning to take hold, this storm has potential to slow and provide some fun days of tracking.

Take these maps and add the correct indices to it and we're all going to be excited. I don't remember many 30+ degree drops under +AO and NAO but I can't wait to see this pattern again. Hopefully 4 times or more.

 

Back over 10 years ago when I started studying patterns on my own, I didn't have rules to use like "BSR", "CPH", "SAI", and all the others. Model ranges were more like near (12-48 hrs), mid (48-96 hrs), and long range was pretty much over 96hrs. But evidence from my past totally does suggest that when the rules are applied, patterning analysis (by whatever name yoou call it) is very real and very effective when used in conjunction with an infallible analog set. You won't find that on any other forum, nor will you find many who love explaining the mechanisms that make it work quite the way many on here do. Theres also no such thing as a dumb question here. That makes us a pretty awesome group right there.

 

Meanwhile, my southern branch, mid-November cold and snow event really appears to be coming from out of nowhere. Cant wait to watch the next month of model runs.

[Tom]

Take these maps and add the correct indices to it and we're all going to be excited. I don't remember many 30+ degree drops under +AO and NAO but I can't wait to see this pattern again. Hopefully 4 times or more.

 

Back over 10 years ago when I started studying patterns on my own, I didn't have rules to use like "BSR", "CPH", "SAI", and all the others. Model ranges were more like near (12-48 hrs), mid (48-96 hrs), and long range was pretty much over 96hrs. But evidence from my past totally does suggest that when the rules are applied, patterning analysis (by whatever name yoou call it) is very real and very effective when used in conjunction with an infallible analog set. You won't find that on any other forum, nor will you find many who love explaining the mechanisms that make it work quite the way many on here do. Theres also no such thing as a dumb question here. That makes us a pretty awesome group right there.

 

Meanwhile, my southern branch, mid-November cold and snow event really appears to be coming from out of nowhere. Cant wait to watch the next month of model runs.

The system hitting your region on Wed is interesting and would imply some wintry scenarios down the road for you.  I'll be honest, I'm glad to see storms actually tracking in the deep south in and around your area.  You couldn't buy a storm as such over the past few winters it seems.  Good pattern.

[Hawkeye]

The 12z Euro, for Cedar Rapids, has a low temp of 17 and a high of 28 on Friday.   Brrr!  I need to get a bunch of garden work done this week.  I wish we could get a few days in the 50s.  

[OKwx2k4]

The system hitting your region on Wed is interesting and would imply some wintry scenarios down the road for you. I'll be honest, I'm glad to see storms actually tracking in the deep south in and around your area. You couldn't buy a storm as such over the past few winters it seems. Good pattern.

It is a pretty great pattern all the way around. Going to be a blast, especially after December starts.

[james1976]

The 12z Euro, for Cedar Rapids, has a low temp of 17 and a high of 28 on Friday. Brrr! I need to get a bunch of garden work done this week. I wish we could get a few days in the 50s.

Really? Wow! Seems like the Euro has been hell bent on the cold. I have a feeling other models will come around.

[OKwx2k4]

Incoming... Nice cold front.

[Madtown]

Cooler is the rule the past week. All week calling for nice temps I think we made it to 50 once. 60 for yesterday and today....i think we hit 48 yesterday and maybe 50 today. Trend is our friend....a few inches this weekend would be fantastic!

[gabel23]

The 12z Euro, for Cedar Rapids, has a low temp of 17 and a high of 28 on Friday.   Brrr!  I need to get a bunch of garden work done this week.  I wish we could get a few days in the 50s.  

Got my work done today. I even made the garden bigger, next year I will have about 420 square feet to work with! Next project is to winterize/get everything put away and get my x-mas lights up!! Then bring on the cold and the snow. Disregard the dead grass close to the house.....we added on this summer and I need to replant sod! That will be a spring project! 

[jaster220]

Thanks for the kind words Jaster!  It humbles me to hear that my efforts actually do attract traffic on here.  TBH, I've never ventured beyond this forum and I will always remember and be thankful for Dominic Rocco who invited me on here a few years back.  R.I.P.   I've learned so much since I became a member on here and began really studying wx patterns, cycles and modeling behaviors/bias's. 

 

Dominic Rocco! With a name like that he should've been a boxing superstar! I remember him as a late night poster (which I'm not) and it's too bad he's not here still. Lost a great wx enthusiast. Also, did I see GEOS was a member here? He too was a round-the-clock NIL poster before he moved out west.

 

As far as putting myself out there, trying to analyze and make a long range prediction, it is challenging but this is what keeps my drive alive.  My calls are not always accurate, but when I hit 'em, "I grab a Dos Equis."  I find it fascinating to witness the cyclical nature and behavior of the weather and use that knowledge to see it evolve in future dates.  Hope everyone can open their minds up to it because it really is something "new" in the wx world that is just being accepted in various circles.

KUDOs for doing what you do with the LR studying!

 

  

It is a pretty great pattern all the way around. Going to be a blast, especially after December starts.

Dude - glad to sense your excitement! Dis gonna rock! Since the 10/10 system, SMI has had a ton of scenarios that translate to very exciting storms down the path a bit. Nice that it's made it's way down to yby now as well. Look out for some wicked Arctic Fronts this winter!

[jaster220]

Wow! Can you say textbook Thermoclinic zone?? Fantastic trends in model world, eh??

 

 

 

Can you imagine if we could also get the 972 mb monster like they had up there?

 

 

[Niko]

Currently still showery outside and temp is at 48F. CF already passed on by. Now comes the chilly air.

[Niko]

This cold air coming later next week will give my area some snow/rain mix going to all snow. Next Sat-Sun time frame looks interesting. Temps will be in the 30s and lows in the 20s and possibly teens. We will see how all this turns out.

 

From NOAA:

 

Models are in better agreement regarding CAA throughout Friday. As
it stands, the GEM and ECMWF models are quite aggressive with the
amount of CAA, bringing 850mb temperatures averaging -13C overhead.
The GFS now brings in cooler air, but is less aggressive compared to
the GEM and ECMWF, with 850mb temperatures averaging -4C. Rain and
snow chances have now been introduced for the thumb and Lake Huron
shoreline Thursday into Friday cool northwesterly flow travels
across the warmer lakes. Rain/snow and snow chances will then be
possible late Saturday into Sunday, however, confidence is low
regarding PoPs as discrepancies continue to be seen across long-
range guidance. A weak warm front is seen crossing the state line
from the south Saturday into Sunday in both the GEM and GFS which
would bring rain/snow and snow chances. The ECMWF remains cooler
compared to other models during this time frame and would bring an
all snow solution, however, the lack of forcing seen in the Euro
model brings only modest precipitation chances to the CWA.

[Niko]

Wow! Can you say textbook Thermoclinic zone?? Fantastic trends in model world, eh??

 

gfs_T2ma_us_22.png

 

Can you imagine if we could also get the 972 mb monster like they had up there?

 

post-46-0-61882500-1509901929.png

Dang!

[OKwx2k4]

Wow! Can you say textbook Thermoclinic zone?? Fantastic trends in model world, eh??

 

gfs_T2ma_us_22.png

 

Can you imagine if we could also get the 972 mb monster like they had up there?

 

post-46-0-61882500-1509901929.png

I don't know if I could imagine it but I'd sure like to be able to.

[jaster220]

This cold air coming later next week will give my area some snow/rain mix going to all snow. Next Sat-Sun time frame looks interesting. Temps will be in the 30s and lows in the 20s and possibly teens. We will see how all this turns out.

 

From NOAA:

 

Models are in better agreement regarding CAA throughout Friday. As

it stands, the GEM and ECMWF models are quite aggressive with the

amount of CAA, bringing 850mb temperatures averaging -13C overhead.

The GFS now brings in cooler air, but is less aggressive compared to

the GEM and ECMWF, with 850mb temperatures averaging -4C. Rain and

snow chances have now been introduced for the thumb and Lake Huron

shoreline Thursday into Friday cool northwesterly flow travels

across the warmer lakes. Rain/snow and snow chances will then be

possible late Saturday into Sunday, however, confidence is low

regarding PoPs as discrepancies continue to be seen across long-

range guidance. A weak warm front is seen crossing the state line

from the south Saturday into Sunday in both the GEM and GFS which

would bring rain/snow and snow chances. The ECMWF remains cooler

compared to other models during this time frame and would bring an

all snow solution, however, the lack of forcing seen in the Euro

model brings only modest precipitation chances to the CWA.

NWS mentions my concerns tbh, which is the lack of dynamics, aka a fairly weak system over our way. The BSea storm was strongest west then weakened as it headed east. Tbh, for the time of year, a solid 2-4" event would be huge. I got 4" in the Flint area 11-11-83, the largest I've seen in my lifetime for SMI synoptic snows at Veterans Day or earlier. Ofc, I'm totally open to getting a good surprise to kick off snow season in mby.

[Niko]

NWS mentions my concerns tbh, which is the lack of dynamics, aka a fairly weak system over our way. The BSea storm was strongest west then weakened as it headed east. Tbh, for the time of year, a solid 2-4" event would be huge. I got 4" in the Flint area 11-11-83, the largest I've seen in my lifetime for SMI synoptic snows at Veterans Day or earlier. Ofc, I'm totally open to getting a good surprise to kick off snow season in mby.

Its looking interesting indeed. Cold air will certainly be in place. We are looking at solid 30s in place. Overall, still early in the game. Tbh, I would have preferred if this was taking place b4 Thanksgiving or after.

[james1976]

DMX feeling pretty good about snow next sat nite. Might be a fun week of model watching.

[St Paul Storm]

Good stuff from MPX about the possible storm next weekend. Model flip flopping likely to continue:

 

Model consistency is still rather poor for next weekend`s storm

potential. However, the pattern remains favorable for a trough

translating across the northern Rockies, spawning an elongated

area of low pressure over the Plains as strong surface ridging

remains on the east coast. Meridional flow in advance of the

shallow trough would bring increasing moisture and lift,

generating widespread precipitation along the leading edge of the

trough. This would be more of an inverted trough snow with a

nebulous low pressure center and moderate accumulations, unless

the surface cyclone deepens and becomes negatively tilted. If that

occurs, a focused area of heavier snow would form on the northern

side of the cyclone with significant accumulations. It`s a

sensitive pattern with a lot of subtle features coming together

which is not as easily predicted as a classic long wave deep

trough spawning a single significant cyclone over the southern

Plains. Thus, model inconsistency will likely continue for the

next day or two with the storm disappearing and reappearing in

various models/model runs.

[Niko]

The cold air next weeks seems more impressed now. Highs are now looking to be in the low to mid 30s. Seems like they are lower the temps w each run.

[St Paul Storm]

There’s a decent chance temps don’t get much above freezing here all week. Lows on Thursday night should bottom out in the low teens.

[Niko]

There’s a decent chance temps don’t get much above freezing here all week. Lows on Thursday night should bottom out in the low teens.

I agree...this will be a real good shot of cold air coming down from Canada (coldest air of the season thus far).

[Money]

Gfs is north and warm

 

No snow for anyone

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Honestly everyone, don't be expecting anything next weekend. No matter how you feel about the BST or whatever you call it the NAO will not be negative enough to allow enough cold air for that system. 

[OKwx2k4]

Honestly everyone, don't be expecting anything next weekend. No matter how you feel about the BST or whatever you call it the NAO will not be negative enough to allow enough cold air for that system.

Hmmmm....

 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Hmmmm....

 

imageproxy.pngimageproxy-1.png

Yeah, exactly. You can see that the NAO is in the positive category lol. Hey i'd like snow like the rest of everyone else here but It just doesn't feel right.

[hlcater]

Honestly everyone, don't be expecting anything next weekend. No matter how you feel about the BST or whatever you call it the NAO will not be negative enough to allow enough cold air for that system. 

Teleconnections aren't everything though. With a massive reservoir of cold air in place for days ahead of this system I do feel like there would probably be a snow component involved somewhere. However, the low itself could take a fairly far northern track, given the season and lack of any meaningful high pressure above the storm.

[james1976]

GFS has been all over the place with this storm. Some of the local offices are talking snow so we will see. Lets see what the CMC and Euro throw at us.

[Grizzcoat]

Most Grizzlies hibernate in the winter. This Grizz is back and ready for this winter! Bring it on.

[NEJeremy]

The BSR has nothing to do with predicting a snowstorm. It’s very good though at predicting a storm somewhere in the country at a relatively long timeframe out.