November 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

I think the front passed thru here. I don't know, I'm not dressed well enough yet to step outside and check.

 

Okay yeah it has. 33.4* on my balcony now. Still haven't stepped outside and the KLNK anemometer is down like always, so I don't know the wind chill.

[Tom]

JMA weeklies came out last night and from last week "head fake" towards warmth, it has flipped back cold across the eastern CONUS  Week 2-4 as an amplified N.A.pattern sets in with all the blocking in the high latitudes.  AN precip across the GL's and points east.  Week 2 looks especially wintry across the Midwest/GL's/OV region during Thanksgiving week.

 

Week 2 maps below...West/SW ridge and a Greenland Block will create some fun atmospheric fireworks across the eastern sub forum.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201711.D0812_gl2.png

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201711.D0812_gl0.png

 

 

 

 

SST's are starting to really torch in the NE PAC....

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201711.D0812_gls.png

 

 

7-day SST anomaly change...Aleutian Ridge has been a big influence in this part of the world.  This is going to be a key player when we head into December.

 

[Tom]

Individual ensemble members per the GEFS/EPS across the Midwest/GL's/OV look like eye candy during Thanksgiving week. Some wild looking, blocked up, storm systems traversing the region.  Interesting period that fits the LRC pattern which Gary believes will be set up by then.

[Tom]

Eye-opening Strat aligning per GEFS...Happy Thanksgiving!  What are you going to be thankful for this year???

 

Sorry for all the early posts, but I have a lot going on today and there is a ton happening in the wx dept!  Have a great day!

[Tom]

Thinking of doing some early skiing???  Head up north towards the U.P.!  Indianhead mtn looks like the middle of winter with full blown lake effect snows and man made snow.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

Temp of 18° with a wind chill 9° Dayam! A few passing flurries just to complete the mid-January feel. Going down to around 11° tonight. Might have to start a fire in the pit and chop some wood this evening.

[Tom]

Temp of 18° with a wind chill 9° Dayam! A few passing flurries just to complete the mid-January feel. Going down to around 11° tonight.

Wowzers!  When this pattern cycles through and if you have a deep snow cover around Christmas, Santa may be riding the Polar Vortex down south with him from the North Pole!

[Minny_Weather]

When's the last time the snowpack in the US has been this high this time of year? I'm actually curious.

[Tom]

When's the last time the snowpack in the US has been this high this time of year? I'm actually curious.

I looked through the last 14 years of archives and the closest map was 2003 and the other was 2011 (focusing more on the intermountain west) during that blow torch winter.

 

Nov 9th, 2011...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201111/nsm_depth_2011110905_National.jpg

[Tom]

Good Lowdy, that's a lot of blocky...

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[Niko]

Looking mighty nice now outside, but wont last. Arctic Express will be visiting SEMI soon. Heading for some record cold temps tanite. Snowsqualls not outta the question as well.

[Niko]

Temp of 18° with a wind chill 9° Dayam! A few passing flurries just to complete the mid-January feel. Going down to around 11° tonight. Might have to start a fire in the pit and chop some wood this evening.

Also some nice, warm Hot Chocolate along with the fire.

[westMJim]

With to nights low foretasted to be in the 15 to 20 range could be looking at chance of a new record low for Grand Rapids. The records for November 9 is 16° set in 2003 (looks safe as it would have to happen before midnight) and for November 10 the record low is 18° set in 1987 that could happen. I know I have posted these web cams before but with a snow event happening here are some web cams from the UP

 

https://www.exploremunising.com/web-cams/

 

and 

http://www.jamadots.com/webcams

[Tom]

With to nights low foretasted to be in the 15 to 20 range could be looking at chance of a new record low for Grand Rapids. The records for November 9 is 16° set in 2003 (looks safe as it would have to happen before midnight) and for November 10 the record low is 18° set in 1987 that could happen. I know I have posted these web cams before but with a snow event happening here are some web cams from the UP

 

https://www.exploremunising.com/web-cams/

 

and 

http://www.jamadots.com/webcams

Looks like legit Blitz conditions I'd say!  Those guys will have trails open very soon if this keeps up and the sleds will be out in no time.

[jaster220]

When's the last time the snowpack in the US has been this high this time of year? I'm actually curious.

 

Nov 1917?

 

Seriously tho, prolly have to go way back before that kind of data existed. At least that'd be my guess at this point. I suppose Nov 2000 may be a contender, tho I only remember a LES storm right before T-day in S. Bend. Not sure how snowy it was across the CONUS tbh? Interesting to note that even in Nov '13 I only scored 1.1" for the entire month in Marshall. Real winter waited until Dec 8th. Looks like it's on a tear and wants to start about 3 wks earlier than that. 

[jaster220]

Won't be long, those nice solid blues will be visiting the southern regions of MI. Some legit SHSN is ofc in the cards for the next few days. Let's see if it wants to over-perform down my way?

 

Currently very windy along the shore here in St. Joe

 

 

[Niko]

Looks like the "Snow Machine will kick in today for those snowbelt areas.

 

Jaster, get that snowblower ready...you might get some of that white powda later on as that potent CF enters the state.

[Niko]

Won't be long, those nice solid blues will be visiting the southern regions of MI. Some legit SHSN is ofc in the cards for the next few days. Let's see if it wants to over-perform down my way?

 

Currently very windy along the shore here in St. Joe

 

20171109 0830 MI radar.PNG

I might be looking at some snowsqualls later this afternoon. No accumulations ofc, but, 0.5" cannot be ruled out.

[jaster220]

Individual ensemble members per the GEFS/EPS across the Midwest/GL's/OV look like eye candy during Thanksgiving week. Some wild looking, blocked up, storm systems traversing the region.  Interesting period that fits the LRC pattern which Gary believes will be set up by then.

 

'74-75 has been mentioned as a strong analog for this region..just sayin

 

SEMI scored their #2 all time storm in '74, and there was a widespread warning level storm for Thanksgiving of '75 as well 

 

 

Eye-opening Strat aligning per GEFS...Happy Thanksgiving!  What are you going to be thankful for this year???

 

For one, that I live in #Pure(and safe)Michigan  

[Niko]

Nov 1917?

 

Seriously tho, prolly have to go way back before that kind of data existed. At least that'd be my guess at this point. I suppose Nov 2000 may be a contender, tho I only remember a LES storm right before T-day in S. Bend. Not sure how snowy it was across the CONUS tbh? Interesting to note that even in Nov '13 I only scored 1.1" for the entire month in Marshall. Real winter waited until Dec 8th. Looks like it's on a tear and wants to start about 3 wks earlier than that. 

Afterwards, all hell broke loose w snowstorm after snowstorm after snowstorm w bitter cold air.

[Tom]

@ Jaster, ready for another powerful GL's beast???  12z GFS flashing a big storm during the same period the Euro has for the last couple runs.  Both models trending aggressively towards some of the individual members were showing over the past several days.

 

[Tom]

12z GGEM...next weekend is looking interesting around these parts...

 

[Tom]

Have this feeling something big is brewing up for next weekend.  12z GEFS members showing many 980's and some 970's across the GL's.

 

[jaster220]

 

 

@ Jaster, ready for another powerful GL's beast??? 

 

 Is water wet..??

 

Ofc, climo takes it way north of SWMI, but the backside effects could get interesting in their own way 

[Tony]

Have this feeling something big is brewing up for next weekend.  12z GEFS members showing many 980's and some 970's across the GL's.

 

Lower lakes will be on the warm side of this storm so rain it is.

[Tom]

Lower lakes will be on the warm side of this storm so rain it is.

All I’m saying is that something Big is brewing. Nothing more, nothing less. Who knows if it snows or not at this juncture. I don’t mind if it’s either tbh. We are fighting Climo as Jaster states and this ensemble map would suggest rain anyways, but possible backside snows??? Possible.

[jaster220]

All I’m saying is that something Big is brewing. Nothing more, nothing less. Who knows if it snows or not at this juncture. I don’t mind if it’s either tbh. We are fighting Climo as Jaster states and this ensemble map would suggest rain anyways, but possible backside snows??? Possible.

 

Interesting how on the GFS it runs into blocking HP and hangs around the GL's for like (30) hrs sub-990 mb. Not sure how realistic that scenario is tho, and the GGEM keeps it progressing normally, so prolly not happening. Would be interesting tho if there's enough cold on the backside.

[St Paul Storm]

All I’m saying is that something Big is brewing. Nothing more, nothing less. Who knows if it snows or not at this juncture. I don’t mind if it’s either tbh. We are fighting Climo as Jaster states and this ensemble map would suggest rain anyways, but possible backside snows??? Possible.

I think the early start to winter has people overly eager for snowstorms. Climo is climo, and it’s still early November.

[Tom]

I think the early start to winter has people overly eager for snowstorms. Climo is climo, and it’s still early November.

Amen brotha! It’s only mid/late November if this storm hits as advertised. Any accumulating snows this month is an added bonus IMHO.

[jaster220]

Interesting how on the GFS it runs into blocking HP and hangs around the GL's for like (30) hrs sub-990 mb. Not sure how realistic that scenario is tho, and the GGEM keeps it progressing normally, so prolly not happening. Would be interesting tho if there's enough cold on the backside.

 

It looks like the GFS says "yes", but with the GGEM it's not clear if the cold catches the precip?

 

 

[Tom]

Just a couple days ago, this storm was supposed to track way up north into S Canada as the long range GFS was showing.  Once we got into D10 maps on the Euro, it started flashing a couple runs of this storms potential.  Imagine another whole week of runs and digesting better data along with the blocking and this storm can end up anywhere TBH.  All I'm saying is, the pattern looks exciting as we head towards the big travel week of Thanksgiving and this storm may be the ignition to kick start good Ol' Man Winter to do his thing.

[OKwx2k4]

Pattern looks awesome going forward. Now we all wait on retrogression. Like the shout outs to 2000 and 1917 above, Jaster. If we can stay close to those years, then wow. I'm still pretty excited for it only being November.

[Jaycee]

Nice that it's showing something I suppose. Of course the storm doesn't get it's act together until it passes Nebraska lol but if it forms in the Rockies we'd be in the ballgame. 198 hrs out so it'd be foolish to rule it out, just glad it's showing something in the works.

[Tom]

Nice that it's showing something I suppose. Of course the storm doesn't get it's act together until it passes Nebraska lol but if it forms in the Rockies we'd be in the ballgame. 198 hrs out so it'd be foolish to rule it out, just glad it's showing something in the works.

Exactly, and from your lips to my ears, 12z Euro already looks different out in the Plains!

[Money]

Euro really bombs it out to 974 over northern mi ish

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I don't like what I'm seeng with the trends here if any of us want a big storm. What we all want is a huge ridge going through alaska and that isn't the case, its over the entire west coast with the brunt of the trough going through the east coast and most of the snow in southern Canada. What we get here is more dry cold air which always happens.

[Tom]

This thing looks reminiscent to the late October bomb and I'll just leave it at that.  2 moving parts with the main southern energy becoming the dominant player and phasing into a major storm that loops around near the Lakes for 30-42 hours.  We'll see if this is actually what I'm thinking will transpire.

[james1976]

Another wind maker. Been a lot of wind so far in this LRC. Gonna be fun during winter!

[jaster220]

Looks like the "Snow Machine will kick in today for those snowbelt areas.

 

Jaster, get that snowblower ready...you might get some of that white powda later on as that potent CF enters the state.

 

Haha Niko! I wish, but nada for home front in Marshall. Might see 1-3" along the coast, tho the lake is so warm I'm not holding my breath tbh. Prolly end up 1-3 mm of pellets 

 

 

[Tom]

Mike Seidel is in Int'l Falls and his comment was "I have never experienced this kind of cold this early in the season"...he says locals have never seen this much snow OTG that hasn't melted away.  #Winter