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December Weather In the PNW

BLI snowman

By BLI snowman
in West of the Rockies

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

The WRF is terrible with inversions.  It was way too warm today.

 

Not here and not in Seattle.   It was right on target today... upper 40s to around 50 (it was 50 at UW in Seattle).

 

And it is usually pretty bad but has been doing well this week.  The ECMWF does much better and it shows the next couple days being warmer and better mixed.  

 

Time will tell!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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ShawniganLake
ShawniganLake

******* of the year candidate. I vote for a ban. You bring nothing to this forum.

ShawniganLake
ShawniganLake

28 with clear blue skies here this morning. Looks like about 6-7” of snow survived the melting and compaction yesterday. Didn’t have time to take any photos really but a took a couple as I went out t

Gradient Keeper
Gradient Keeper

I actually haven't been hanging onto any models. I just post the links and give brief analysis. Of course I don't have to do so for every 12z, 00z run, but who would take over? I enjoy doing so. My en

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
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I drove into Pateros one cold night and the steam from the factors was making it snow. Also that little area can get pretty snowy. Didn't you live around there?

I split my time there between Omak and Pateros. I rented a little house right on the Methow in town and had an opportunity to buy it just before I came back to the west side. It was probably the right decision but I kick myself all things considered. It'd be nice to have an excuse to go back over there more often.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Hard to complain about the 00Z GFS.   Models are certainly trending in the right direction.    There is tons of potential with that pattern.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

This is really good stuff!  That is a classic Fraser outflow signature. Tons of potential.

 

 

post-222-0-19229200-1512795040_thumb.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted

Time for the ECMWF to jump on board.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

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Posted

Now this is what I call a White Christmas!

 

Screen_Shot_2017_12_08_at_9_53_45_PM
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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
Posted

Just amazing potential emerging now. Probably best I've seen since 2008. 00z CMC not quite as good but pattern is very similar just lacking amplification with Aleutian ridge.

Did you sleep through December 2016? That was without a doubt the most amazing month of model runs I've ever seen.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
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I tried to. I think there is a higher potential this go around for a legit, widespread blast.

Definitely. It didn't happen last winter. This winter, for the most part, hasn't happened yet. I don't remember too many people down playing last December/early January's potential though...

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

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Posted

Definitely. It didn't happen last winter. This winter, for the most part, hasn't happened yet. I don't remember too many people down playing last December/early January's potential though...

Oh yeah for sure, I'm just speaking to the possibility of a major old timer arctic blast. It seems very real.

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
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Everything I'm seeing points to tomorrow being colder than today for the Seattle area.  Pretty much everywhere is running solidly colder than this time last night with a lot more fog around.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Everything I'm seeing points to tomorrow being colder than today for the Seattle area.  Pretty much everywhere is running solidly colder than this time last night with a lot more fog around.

 

More likely about the same from SEA south to OLM where there will be little mixing like today (that includes your area too).

 

It will probably be warmer here and in the Snoqualmie Valley through the city of Seattle and north to Bellingham.     And on the WA coast.  

 

Look at the 12Z ECMWF surface map for today and for tomorrow.   It was perfect today.  

 

This was today:

 

ecmwf_t2max_seattle_3.png

 

And tomorrow:

 

ecmwf_t2max_seattle_7.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
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One thing I love is how all the models (and their ensembles) agree on rising heights over the Aleutians after next weekend with a generally flat ridge over the PNW. 

 

Exact placement, amplification, etc. will work itself out but that is a nice player to have on the field regardless.

 

Absolutely.   I really expected this to evolve into a 2-3 week period of wet, zonal flow.   I am pleasantly surprised about being wrong!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TigerWoodsLibido Grand Master

TigerWoodsLibido

Posted
Posted

 

Now this is what I call a White Christmas!

 

Screen_Shot_2017_12_08_at_9_53_45_PM.png

 

 

Almost, but not quite. That low needs to be 250 miles south.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Woe there, it hasn't happened yet.

 

I don't see wet, zonal flow coming.    

 

But you are correct.    Best to not count your chickens before they hatch.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
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Seems others also see the behavior you routinely act like in crazy for pointing out. ;)

 

Yes... Matt has never called us out.   He called you out today as well but you vehemently protested that assessment.   Denial.    ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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